저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 괴리는 펀더멘털이 아닌 공매도·알고리즘 매매·수급 요인 탓이며 업계 내 상대적 강점은 유지된다고 주장. 상하이 공장 생산 중단은 정기 보수로 해석, 1월 17일 가동·춘절 휴지 예고. 4680 배터리 주간 868,000셀(연간 약 3.8GWh 환산)로 양산 램프업 중이라 강조. 중국 판매 주간 8.9천대로 둔화 추세, 니오 가이던스 하향은 공급망 차질 영향. 중고차 가격 하락은 과대 해석이라 반박.
다듬은 글
or updated patrons John Van L Brian H Stephen H Mark R Rudy a Jeff s Craig o Bob H David J hacking Hollywood trip a and IBM Coble thank you all very much for choosing to support the channel quick update on my schedule for this week I do plan to upload again tomorrow on Wednesday but then no video upload from me on Thursday or Friday I have family obligations and I have some friends in town that I rarely get to see so after tomorrow's video on Wednesday my next upload will be on Monday of next week I'll just tell you after unplugging the last few days I did go back and listen to elon's Twitter space one more time and I just have to say at least personally I really believe Tesla is in such a position of strength relative to all other auto companies in the industry right now so really there's nothing to worry about for Tesla despite the stock price and all of the noise right now and I know that sounds counter-intuitive but I just want to touch on some of the main headlines for today and tomorrow but ultimately we don't need to get into the weeds with everything going on right now because again zooming out 2023 may be rough but again Tesla is in such a strong position relative to everybody else that's not worth very much right now when it comes to the stock price but there are reasons for that and like Elon said there will be brighter days ahead and if you go to elon's liked tweets you'll see this video that Farzad did saying Tesla has one it's over I'd encourage you to watch it if you haven't yet I'll include a link below and I don't think this gets mentioned enough algorithmic trading accounts for anywhere between 60 and 75 percent of the overall trading volume on any given day so as I tweeted out today when you have a bear market rate hikes margin fud narratives short sellers piling in covid now ramping up again in China tax loss harvesting season all of that combined will bring us to a Tesla share price of where we're at now but note these really don't have anything to do with Tesla's fundamentals now yes of course Tesla's margins will most likely come down throughout 2023 but when I say fundamentals I'm really meaning again relative to the rest of the Auto industry because everybody's margins will be coming down and Tesla by far has the most to give we've been saying that now for months point being if you're looking at Tesla stock price today and thinking to yourself how can this even happen well this is a big part of it again markets don't always act rationally and with all of these short sellers looking to capitalize on this perfect storm of everything going on right now paired with all of these algorithmic trades being executed this is what we get I am starting to lose my voice a little bit so we're going to go very quickly for the rest of this video we learned tomzu step down as the legal rep of the Tesla China subsidiary it's important to note ping West a source I put zero phase Nathan is part of this reporting so take it for what you will for now but this would give more credibility to the fact that we've been hearing Tom Zoo may take on a bigger role for Tesla in North America we got the insurance registration data for the week from Tesla in Shanghai Tesla coming in at 8.9 000 down about 1.5 000 from the week prior once again byd for the week remains over 51 000 and yes about half of these are hybrids but they're still selling a lot of cars here's the chart from Matthias showing us this recent week and the continued downtrend that I think a lot of us were expecting to see in December and we're only about a week and some change away from getting the official cpca data from the month and we'll also get the production figures so we can do all the math go over it in more detail and figure out where Tesla's inventory is at and what we should be expecting for q1 Reuters did tell us on Christmas Eve that gigashanghai did go into that production shutdown down on the 24th telling workers they could go home and enjoy a break now you have to remember Christmas isn't really a holiday over in China and typically in the past Giga Shanghai did stay open for this Christmas time that we celebrate here in the west however there may have been some quotes coming from Tesla China regarding this shutdown basically saying it's just scheduled maintenance so really I think people are making a bigger deal of this than they need to if you translate that image that Ray for Tesla shared and here they talk about it they're just doing that maintenance work and they want to give workers a time off for a year of hard work we got a separate Reuters report saying that Tesla will run production for 17 days in January from the 3rd to the 19th and they're going to stop vehicle output from the 20th to the 31st which would be an extended break for the Chinese New Year that yes would be longer than last year because last year they were only shut down for about three days for the Chinese New Year as has been the case with Tesla China over the last few weeks we we are getting mixed reporting as media reports about Tesla suspending production at the Shanghai plant are not accurate Tesla told the global times on December 25th late in the evening adding the plant is carrying out annual production line maintenance as planned this week and we all have to remember with China being in the midst of reopening its borders and relaxing these coveted controls the cases are spiking right now and we're not really going to get the accurate data but based on some video footage and different reports you can kind of see the drum beat of they're going to be struggling suppliers may be struggling there are some reports that almost half of Tesla's workers at Giga Shanghai have the virus right now so between all of that going on we should expect a Slowdown at the same time we get reports that Tesla is now selling display and test drive units because there's been high demand for inventory vehicles to take advantage of the incentive that Tesla made available and you usually Tesla does this before they release a new model which I've had my fingers crossed for Tesla working on a new model 3 to come in under the 55 000 cap for the long range variant we also got a rare update on the progress of 4680 production which of course is crucial to Tesla's future they said congrats on the team building 868 000 cells in the last seven days which is enough for around 1 000 car packs doing some math if we use 87 Watt hours per cell from the limiting factors most recent video that would give us 75.5 million Watt hours per week in terms of the Run rate that Tesla just told us about so we also know there's 828 cells per pack split up into 69 cells per bandolier in a pack and there are 12 bandoliers in each pack then if we take that Weekly run rate and multiply it by 50 weeks in a year to allow some downtime maintenance upgrades Etc that gives us in the neighborhood of 3.8 billion Watt hours per year or 3.8 gigawatt hours in terms of run rate where Tesla is at right now there's a lot of speculation about whether this is just from the pilot line at Cato Road or if this figure includes Austin as well I'm trying to confirm for sure but I haven't heard back yet I'll of course keep you posted now if this 4 gigawatt hour doesn't get you excited I understand it seems relatively small but you have to remember this is in-house production from a car company to get into the battery industry to produce these manufacturing lines and to start ramping up on the s-curve which is exactly what Tesla's doing with his 4680 production is a massive feat that no one else in the Auto industry is doing all of these other Legacy oems all have these Partnerships with other companies where they're probably not contributing too much to that partnership just yet whereas Tesla's 4680s are 100 percent in-house and it's interesting because we really don't know what exactly Tesla has planned for all these 4680s right now it's not the Tesla semi we know that's 2170s of course the Cyber truck we expect we'll use 4680s but are these going into model wise right now or is it just that standard Range model Y which was only an inventory vehicle what are they doing with that now what we do know is Tesla is indeed stockpiling these ysbs or a model y structural batteries at Austin I would assume at least part of this stock is of course for the Cyber truck but to what degree these will go into model y variants into the new year is anybody's guess and remember this Tesla hit their first one million 4680 cells produced cumulatively in February earlier this year that took them eight months fast forward to today and doing a little bit of math they are at a 1 million cell run rate in the neighborhood of eight days so from eight months to eight days for the same level of production this right here is the S curve in action and remember at this point it's not really about the energy density those tweaks and revisions will come with time right now it's all about manufacturing at scale getting the lines up and running improving the yields and ultimately just maximizing the cell production volume which Tesla is apparently doing very well on Twitter today I mentioned the fud narratives well here's one of them although it's cloaked in data in my opinion this is a big nothing Burger look use Tesla prices went up much higher than other vehicles so naturally they're starting to come down and now the media is trying to turn it into some terrible event they just point out how the average sale price of a used Tesla has been coming down from the peak and remember people were literally buying Teslas just so that they could flip them on the open used car market because the prices were so inflated gas prices were high AI everybody wanted to rush and get a Tesla now and they didn't want to wait to get a new one so the article was arguing because you don't have Tesla flippers in the market anymore that's going to hurt demand for new vehicles sure maybe to a very minuscule degree but again zooming out from the big picture this is absolutely nothing and honestly a lot of the uncertainty right now in the market is driven by what Neo said this morning they're cutting their fourth quarter guidance down from 43 to 48 000 to 39 000 vehicles and you guessed it they're citing supply chain disruptions from the new outbreak of covid which will be impacting suppliers and people of course think will impact Tesla as well and it's a fair point so it's just the perfect storm of negativity right now and it's just going to be a matter of weathering the storm it looks like California has passed a law that may Force Tesla to change the name of FSD or full self-driving sometime next year it's basically a loss saying if any vehicle was going to ship a car with automated self-driving features there has to be a notice fully and clearly explaining what the car can and cannot do and it does govern what companies can call the automated driving software so it's about time full self driving gets pushed to the side because it's just been causing so much unnecessary attention and the reality is It's Not Yet full self-driving and a lot of people online are saying maybe it could be fully supervised driving either way in the long run the technology doesn't care what it's actually called so apologies for the brevity of the video today again not sure what's going on with my voice I am planning to upload again tomorrow on Wednesday if things don't get worse but I'll of course keep you posted hope you all
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