저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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기술 혁명(로봇·에너지저장·AI·블록체인·멀티오믹스)이 생산성 성장을 끌어올려 실질 GDP 성장률이 7% 이상으로 가속하고, 이로 인해 디플레이션(좋은 의미)이 온다는 주장. 비트코인은 금 상승 이후 뒤따를 것이며 스테이블코인·규제·지정학 변수로 경로가 늦춰질 뿐 장기 목표(2030년 150만 달러)는 유지된다고 봄. 근거로 Wright's law에 따른 로봇·로켓 비용 급감, 트루플레이션 기준 물가 1.2~2% 하락, 오픈AI 광고 수익화 관찰 등을 제시.
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It happened for the opposite reason. It happened because of productivity growth associated with these technologies, a sensible monetary policy as well. I will say productivity growth lifted unit growth and the history. This is unlike what you would learn um from Keynesian economics which that's associated with Harvard primarily which says growth is inflationary.
Growth is not inflationary. Growth is is disinflationary. And in this world we're going into, it is deflationary. Deflation in the good sense. When a when the price of something drops, the demand for it explodes. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. The global economy is changing dramatically. And Kathy Wood says Bitcoin should already be trading close to $200,000.
This is because new technologies are changing the economy quickly and making it hard to set stable market standards. For decades, traditional systems that led investors are breaking down. Bitcoin has become a key part of this change. It is no longer seen as a gamble, but as a hedge against weakening fiat currencies and a store of value for a generation that doesn't trust established institutions.
No longer is the question whether Bitcoin will live or die. But why its meteoric rise has been slowed down despite more people around the world using it. Wood still thinks Bitcoin could reach $ 1.5 million by 2030. But the path will be bumpy because of the rise of stable coins, stricter rules, and more competition between financial systems due to geopolitics.
She thinks that these factors have not changed Bitcoin's long-term path, but have only pushed it back. This time is not a normal bull run, but rather a larger fight over the future of money. You can see that every technology revolution has been accompanied by a step function increase in GDP growth. Uh so go if you look at the fif years from 1500 to 1900 uh not much new technology uh toward the end of it we were into railroads but uh and that uh according to Brett Winton and he worked with academic research uh on on this number uh real GDP growth was roughly uh 0.6% 6% globally.
And then as we went through railroads, telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine, that was a technology revolution. And we stepped up five-fold to 3% for the next 125 years. And so here we are as we are saying uh these five platforms robotics, energy storage, AI, AI the biggest catalyst, uh blockchain technology, multiomic sequencing and the convergence among them.
Uh we're saying two and a halffold increase. I actually do believe that's conservative. We started putting this number out a couple of years ago and most people rolled their eyes. you know, they're crazy once again. Uh, but now to have Elon and yes, I saw on your show how uh how how much he is um focused on this idea that real GDP growth globally is going to accelerate to astonishing rates.
Explode, I think, was explode. Explode. And you know, I don't think people understand this. Uh I think the 7% plus is conservative but it's nothing that anyone living today has seen before. So what's interesting is again anyone alive today hasn't experienced anything different. Um and part of the reason for that is uh productivity growth uh it moved up in the 80s and 90s and that was a golden age for investing.
it moved up and we did uh we did sustain 3% GDP growth around the world not so much because of that I mean I think it part of it was partly necessary for that but also because China joined uh the joined after the world trade organization I think the reason they are talking like that is you're right we haven't been in a technology revolution before you know this is five we have five platforms forms they are converging.
They involve 15 different technologies and um and and the reason I think many people uh especially in the financial world do not believe this is because of the way they've set up their research. They've set up their research by sector or industry or subindustry. they've siloed those sectors and industries when uh technology is permeating every one of them and blurring the lines.
So you almost have to set up research the way we have set it up and on purposefully uh and that is by these 15 technologies and each of our analysts is looking for to how to is researching how to understand when and how these technologies are going to scale across sectors. Um so no silos here. Our analysts are working together, collaborating in order to understand the massive convergences that are taking place today.
Yes. And we uh we have an open-source SpaceX model out there. uh we in collaboration with Mach 33 and uh we didn't we put it out early uh probably mid last year and we didn't have anything like uh the d the orbital data centers in our model. So now we're going back to the drawing board with uh Mach 33 and yeah here are some of the early results that you're seeing the massive uh well first of all the cost decline again another use case driving unit growth and rights law is centered on unit growth for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced with a new technology in this case reusable uh rockets costs decline at a consistent percentage rate.
And in the case of rockets, uh uh the readers will have to go to the page. I'm I'm blanking on it. Uh it's a pretty big number in terms of cost declines, but not as big, believe it or not. Industrial in the industrial robot space, for every cumulative doubling in the number of industrial robots produced, costs declined by 50%.
It's not as high as that, but it's well into the 20s, I believe, right? Uh so it's and and what's very interesting about that, of course, Moore's law was all about time. Um and it is no longer working in the semiconductor industry. Uh Wright's law is working in the semiconductor industry. And so what can get in the way of unit growth is the question.
Um I I don't think regulations are going to get in the way. I I think we're into a a space race here. So, I think you're right. I think we could be conservative. We typically assume especially with Elon's companies uh vertical integration as you say and we do know how important uh getting that chip uh technology right uh is is here.
Uh so I think we have assumed that uh but in some of the in terms of some of the other costs you're talking about no Kathy Wood believes in Bitcoin because of cycles in the past and big changes in the way the global economy is structured. She points out that gold has doubled in value over the last 2 years and recently did better than Bitcoin.
However, she doesn't see this as a sign of weakness. Instead, she sees it as a normal occurrence for gold to rise first, followed by Bitcoin's faster rise. Stable coins like Tether have taken over Bitcoin's old role in developing markets as a hedge against hyperinflation and capital controls. RK estimates that this could lower Bitcoin's price upside by $200,000 to $300,000.
However, would seize a bigger opportunity opening up. She says that Bitcoin is becoming more and more popular as digital gold, especially among younger generations who are inheriting money and prefer decentralized digital assets to real gold and fiat currencies backed by the government. She thinks that Bitcoin is not being replaced, but rather strengthened because it is becoming harder to get and can't be censored.
This makes it a strong symbol of financial freedom in a world where money is changing all the time. Well, um I'm probably not expert expert enough to answer that question, but we we have taken the SpaceX model much further than five years and uh we have incorporated getting you know Optimus and and Tesla and Boring uh to Mars.
Uh so uh so and and and we think that's very doable. Um I think you know the the space our space analysts I'd really want them to dwell on this question. I'd like to dwell on it with them. Uh and I will do exactly that. So uh uh the other side of costs coming down is of course explosive unit growth.
So that 7% plus GDP number is a real number. Uh so Javon to the rescue basically. Exactly. And you know many people especially in our industry just laugh at me us uh when we say we think uh prices are going to start falling. This is another one of those well it's been stuck in the 2 to 3% range. We're not getting out of there.
If you look at trueflation which is um it measures 10,000 items in real time inflation is already down to 1.2% 2%. And yet the Fed is fighting uh this notion that we're up in the two and a half to 3% range and they're going to get it down to 2% by golly. And you know that's how they potentially could overdo it.
But I think I think that uh within the next year we'll see inflation below 2% and heading negative. And it is you've got critical to that forecast is productivity growth and uh uh unit labor costs uh continuing to decelerate. Uh but also we've got gasoline costs coming down and here in the US we have housing costs, rents starting to come down.
uh at some point people are just gonna it's going to become consensus thinking but it is as far away from that right now as you can get it it is um but there's there's another side to this I I'm not going to say it's equal and opposite uh if you look at uh robotics and you look at the time we spend uh doing things for free we're not paid to drive our children around.
Uh we're not paid to make dinner and clean up afterwards. Um we're going to unlock a lot of that and that will become paid in the form of we're going to be buying robots. Uh that will get into GDP and that never got into GDP for before. It's a little bit like uh what happened uh to the the farm economy here.
The reason people at that time wanted to have lots and lots of children is they paid them room and board and and nothing else. And then we had the industrial revolution. Uh and of course their their work was not counted in GDP. Uh because there's GDP equals national income. National income is easier to measure in these days because of the tax system and so forth and they have to equal they have to equal and so we will through robot uh um purchases uh see a lot of GDP coming back to us.
It's been very interesting to watch OpenAI recently um and it is now starting to monetize. It's planning for advertising, uh, for commerce, for robots, and, uh, but in in terms of the monetization, and we just learned they're going to start charging $60 per thousand per thousand. See, it's um per thousand views, I think, or or
Yeah, something like that. Uh, the equivalent uh at Facebook right now is $20. Um, this is Super Bowl kinds of pricing. Uh, and and and they'll probably get away with it in the beginning because they'll control the supply, but our analysts are beginning on the consumer side are saying, "Wait a minute.
Wait a minute. You know, Gemini is not going to do this. Uh, they're not going to do this. They're going to hang out and take share from uh from Open AI. They don't have to. they have Google to support and Google's massive cash flows to support their spending. So that is something that's evolving here and uh I think our consumer analysts are saying huh that's not that's not good news for open AI.
Now it is true they have 900 million users. They have a huge head start in in that way. Um but uh the fact that our consumeroriented analysts the internet analysts are saying that um is is interesting. Uh so I I I think we they they know they have to start driving revenue much faster in order to uh scale the infrastructure they the the way they must.
Uh, I don't know if it means at some point they're going to have to pull back on certain uh of their many objectives because they're going wide and deep all at once and they may have to change their strategy and just focus, focus, focus a little bit more. Well, wealth growth is very much tied to productivity growth.
Uh, and I'm talking about real wealth growth. I'm not talking about real estate and priced driven uh you know I'm talking more about uh technologically enabled productivity gains um that you know we got a taste of it just a taste from the 80s and 90s um it was it was the in the pre-in age starting with a PC then pre-in age um and and pre-mobile age.
But back then, which was a magnificent time for the financial markets, wealth creation uh was stupendous as software for the first time unlocked. We went through a frustrating period in in the 80s. I was there uh where technology it almost seemed as though it was hurting productivity. Um there were some people out there saying that and then of course Microsoft came along and and boom and then we had the internet boom.
Um so that was foreshadowing just foreshadowing what we're going to experience here. So there was if you look at growth growth accelerated not a lot but it accelerated uh certainly from the horrible 70s uh growth rates productivity was I think zero or negative for a good part of the 70s into the early 80s and uh then we saw productivity picking up and the financial markets boomed uh and inflation came down back then and and the reason I've thought about it so much is very early in my career um we we had taken a position [clears throat] that inflation was going to come down.
Most people thought that couldn't happen without a depression. It happened for the opposite reason. It happened because of productivity growth associated with these technologies a sensible monetary policy as well. I will say productivity growth lifted unit growth and the history this is unlike what you would learn um from Keynesian e economics which that's associated with Harvard primarily which says growth is inflationary growth is not inflationary growth is is disinflationary and in this world we're going into it is deflationary deflation in the good sense when a when the price of something drops, the demand for it explodes.
Kathy Wood thinks that Bitcoin's future goes far beyond investing portfolios. She says that as wealth grows in emerging markets, more and more people will use it as their main way to store value, just like El Salvador did when their currency was unstable. In her bull case, she thinks the price could reach $1.5 million by 2030.
if Bitcoin gets a big part of the gold market. However, she does admit that events like the $ 28 billion deleveraging during a flash crash on Binance have shown that there are risks. Concerned about deflation, what says that Bitcoin's value is maintained by its fixed quantity of 21 million coins even in times of inflation or deflation.
This is because self-custody eliminates counterparty risk that was present during crises like 2008. She says that the global economy will be reshaped by the huge changes brought about by convergent technologies like AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and genomic sequencing. Bitcoin may not only be an asset, but also a hedge against systemic instability, rewarding investors who can stick with it through the rough times with faith and patience.
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