저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
이더리움은 매도할 필요가 없으며 스테이킹 보상과 우선주 배당을 충당 가능. 비트코인은 local bottom 형성 및 8월 25% 반등 후 15만달러 목표 유지. 이더/비트코인 비율은 최소 0.08 복귀 전망, 이에 따라 ETH 1~2년 내 5천달러 이상, 2027~28년 1만달러 가능성 제시. 촉매로 CLARITY Act, 가을 크립토 윈터 종료, 아시아 유동성, 기관 FOMO 언급. 기관(Goldman, BofA, Citi 등)의 스테이블코인 출시와 AI 에이전트 결제 수요를 강조.
다듬은 글
I believe that from our perspective, ETH does not need to be sold. On the contrary, other ways to use Ethereum will simply emerge. You know, for example, today we're doing native staking, and we did it with a little over 5 million ETH. This leaves 800,000 ETH that are currently not in stake. So, will we consider using this productively for the ecosystem?
Perhaps. So I would say that instead of selling Ethereum, we will most likely look for ways to monetize our assets. In short , selling ETH is not something we would do out of financial necessity, and even our preferred stock dividends are easily covered by existing ETH rewards. So we wouldn't have any need to sell Ethereum at all.
predicts a confident "bullish" trajectory for Ethereum, predicting that the asset should organically recover above $5,000 within 1-2 years, simply due to the start of a new crypto cycle, with targets easily exceeding $10,000 when additional catalysts are deployed . Lee suggests that while previous cycles have relied heavily on the introduction of stablecoins to incentivize the network, the next phase will be accelerated by Wall Street creating infrastructure to tokenize assets on public blockchains, as well as artificial intelligence systems creating massive new demand for decentralized infrastructure.
Supporting this optimistic forecast, Lee notes that Bitcoin may have already reached a local bottom, indicating a rapid structural reversal, while Raul Pal argues that institutional capital will increasingly focus on technology and crypto assets due to their unique ability to rapidly scale economic intelligence .
Well, I think we're already making that transition, David, thanks to Maven. Mhm. Maven is Bitmain's native staking operation . This stands for " Made in America Validator Network" . This is, in my opinion, one of the newest and therefore one of the safest staking protocols on the market. And Maven actually had quite a few wins in attracting external customers.
So overall , I think Maven is now managing...sorry, staking over $2 billion in crypto assets not related to Bitmain. I think in due time we will reveal some of our successes. But this is an example of a business being created in part because Bitmain, of course, wanted to have its own native staking operation.
But thanks to many built-in features and technological capabilities, it has become attractive to others and we are receiving mandates to manage their crypto assets. We talked, as you can imagine, we had a lot of conversations, and we still haven't had all the discussions that everyone would like us to have .
So, we talked to both supporters and opponents of this idea. And I think until we give everyone a chance, until we have a full discussion, you know, we won't speak publicly about this. But I understand both sides of the argument . Well, you know, are we overestimating the cost of security, you know?
And isn't this an unfair burden on those who don't staking? I think that's a valid question. I don't think anyone knows where the optimization curve is . And really, any clear statement you make is no different than the Federal Reserve setting the short-term rate, you know? Because the curve itself...we don't really know where to draw the line to get the right level of safety, you know?
And on the other hand, I understand the argument that there is a risk of many unforeseen consequences and volatility, as many new incentives for manipulation or optimization can be created. And this actually creates uncertainty for what is supposed to be a stable or completely reliable blockchain. And now you have an undefined optimization.
And of course, I sympathize with the arguments that a lot of DeFi has been built, and of course, many find ETH attractive precisely because of the availability of returns. So this is a very complicated question. I don't really want to...because I know there are a few people who really want to sit down with us at the negotiating table, and I don't want to get ahead of myself.
But, you know, from Bitmain's perspective: even if Ethereum didn't have a return, there are still many other ways to generate it. I mean, think about Bitcoin, it's theoretically an income-generating asset, but you have to put in the effort to generate that income. Conceptually, this is similar to the idea of preservation of value because you are now deconstructing most of the profit into price rather than interest.
The problem with all this is that interest rates don't always make sense. Actually, that's why you can make money on bonds if you are a good investor and know how to look for "alpha ". I mean, you can even look at other countries, you know, for example, why is the US Fed interest rate so high compared to other G7 countries when inflation is not that different, you know?
So I think a lot of the things I see on paper are hard to explain in the real world, you know? And listen , I'm not trying to dismiss math , because, you know, I went to Wharton and studied a lot of statistics, portfolio theory . I was a stock analyst, I built models, but I'll just say this: if I had to live by the rules of those spreadsheets, I would be a terrible analyst and a very unsuccessful investor.
From a cash management perspective, this is not necessary because ETH is an inherently income-generating asset, and rewards generate cash flow. We are not currently converting them to USDC or US dollars at all. You know, if the rate is 5% and we still accumulate ETH through income, there might be a scenario where we don't want to exceed 5%.
Then we will sell the rewards we receive. You know, it's possible. I think from our perspective, ETH does not need to be sold. Most likely , other ways to use Ethereum will emerge. For example, today we are doing native staking, and we did it with just over 5 million ETH. This leaves 800,000 ETH that are currently not in stake.
Will we consider the possibility of using this productively for the ecosystem? Perhaps. So I would say that instead of selling Ethereum, we will most likely try to find ways to monetize our assets. So, in short, we would not sell ETH out of financial necessity, and even our preferred stock dividends are easily covered by existing ETH rewards.
So we have no need to sell Ethereum at all. Tom Lee argues that Bitcoin has effectively completed the most painful phase of its cyclical decline, estimating that the market has bottomed out approximately 95% of the time by duration and 90% by price decline, making waiting for an absolute bottom an increasingly risky strategy for capital waiting in the market.
Supporting this constructive outlook, Bitcoin rose by around 25% in August, posting its strongest monthly performance since late 2024, breaking through the $80,000 threshold and reclaiming key long-term moving averages including the 21, 55, 100 and 200-days, signaling a fundamental technical recovery .
Lee is sticking to his ambitious $150,000 target, arguing that the asset’s recent upward momentum is the third phase of a broader multi-stage rally. So, as Bitcoin solidifies this underlying structural level, it not only creates the conditions for its own exponential expansion, but also forms the macroeconomic foundation for Ethereum to embark on an even more aggressive growth trajectory .
Yes, I think the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio should continue to increase. That is, I believe that at a minimum it should return to its previous maximum of 0.08. And the reason for that is, first of all, as we look at the next 5 years, I still have a lot of faith in Bitcoin because to me it's better than digital gold.
It is digital gold, but it functions as a substitute for gold much better. Therefore, I believe that Bitcoin easily has the potential to multiply from this level. But I think the story shaping up around the crypto industry for the next 5 years is largely tied to tokenization. And, as you know, Vlad said that this is a supercycle and genetic AI, and also real protection of people and integration of people into this chain.
We believe that much of this, and perhaps most, or even all of it, will happen on Ethereum. So I think this ratio will increase. I think there are catalysts that will emerge by the end of the year. Of course, one of the most important is the Clarity Act. If it is passed in September, it will be important for traditional financial institutions.
This doesn't matter much to the crypto world. But the traditional financial system can now navigate more safely, knowing that there is a designated organization with the authority to set rules for cryptocurrencies. This will really help traditional financial systems start officially working with cryptocurrencies.
However, if it is not passed, it would not be the worst thing for the crypto industry, as it has already shown that it is capable of innovation in the absence of regulatory clarity . So, I think Ethereum will be fine either way, but I think the passage of the Clarity Act will accelerate this movement significantly.
The second catalyst is that a lot of people are staying away , and you started this podcast by pointing that out, because they're waiting for cryptowinter to end because they're using a 4- year cycle and waiting for October. Um, well, you know what? You know, it's about 5 weeks away. So, um, you're going to have a lot of people who are short on funds, or who are sitting on cash, or who have gone out of crypto and been trading AI, and they're coming back.
And I think that also includes the Asian market. You know, Korea is going crazy with current stocks, but I'm not pessimistic about AI stocks right now, but crypto has a lot more growth potential, which is what we see as a consequence of AI trading. So, not only are you ending crypto winter, but you also have a lot of cash sitting around, especially in Asia.
These are three really huge catalysts. And, of course, institutional investors will be chasing returns, because since June 30, crypto has been the best-performing asset. Ethereum rose by 54 %. Gold—only 13. Stocks rose, you know , by a single percent. Well, when we get to June, to September 30th, which is a month away, and if Ethereum is still the best asset, guess what institutions will be buying from September 30th to December 30th.
There will be a lot of FOMO racing. So now this is the fourth catalyst, which is a huge institutional application. I think Ethereum can easily, very easily surpass its year-to-date highs on an ETH to BTC ratio. But, you know, will it reach 0.04? Well, if that's the case, and if Bitcoin is worth 150,000, you know, that would put Ethereum at about 6,000.
And I think that's very conservative, because, again, 0.08—that's the old ratio . So, regarding the first part of your question, David, um, you know, that's about $350 million in ETH that we need to purchase to reach 5%. And, um, you know, we could get to that by the end of the year. Hmm, it could happen sooner .
I would say it's still one of those things where at this point it's partly just a matter of making sure that the narrative around ETH is actually, um, clear to investors. And I think everything is getting better. For example, if the Clarity Act had passed, um, I think we would probably have accelerated our timeline to get to 5%, but now with the Clarity Act, which is not completely negative for crypto, it still delays some of the things that people were hoping for.
Um, if it's in September, you know, we would probably review the pace of our Ethereum purchases in September. And, um , about whether we should have more than 5%? I think that today, given the redistribution of roles in the foundation, the organization has become more stable and purposeful. I believe that the new structures that have been created are really doing a great job: whether it's improving privacy or bringing corporations into the Ethereum ecosystem.
In this new world, I am convinced that both the understanding of Ethereum and the ways it is used will evolve. I think we have a lot of interesting things ahead of us. I think many companies will want to hold ETH as an asset if it is used the way they view real estate investments. If that's the case, then in my opinion it would be quite logical for us to own a stake of more than 5%.
But I think we'll probably come back to this issue in 2027 . Tom Lee predicts that Ethereum could realistically surpass the $10,000 mark by 2027-2028, thanks to a combination of a cyclical bull market, asset tokenization on Wall Street, and the rapid growth of the autonomous AI economy. Lee argues that only a return to a strong market cycle can propel Ethereum above $5,000, and its role as infrastructure for 60% of global stablecoins and $210 billion in assets creates huge demand.
This institutional momentum is evidenced by financial giants such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, and Deutsche Bank launching their own stablecoins, creating a multi-trillion dollar settlement level on public blockchains . Importantly, as AI agents begin to perform high-frequency autonomous transactions for data, computation, and API exchange, traditional financial networks are proving unsuited for real-time micropayments.
As blockchain protocols like X402 enable agent wallets and payment systems like MasterCard implement tools like “agent pay,” Ethereum finds itself at the center of global change, making Lee’s $10,000 prediction a bet on the future of global finance.
Comments 0