저자: TomLee및MattHogan · 외국인
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비트코인과 이더리움 가격이 9월 상승 국면에 들어설 수 있다는 주장. 미국 CLARITY Act 등 규제 명확화와 기관 채택 확대를 상승 촉매로 제시. 이더리움은 스테이블코인·토큰화의 핵심 인프라로 장기 성장 전망. 비트코인은 현재 약 6.3만 달러이며 Hogan은 2026년 연말 상승 마감과 장기 5배 상승을 예상하나, 단기적으로 4년 주기 저점(9~10월)과 4만~5.7만 달러 조정 가능성도 언급. 이더리움 가격 상승의 약 90%는 매크로 요인에 의한다고 주장.
다듬은 글
The dollar itself is not actually exchanged for anything . Of course? And it is considered the gold standard of currency. This is literally our unit of transaction. If you took your dollar and tried to exchange it with the federal government, they would just print you another dollar. You cannot exchange it for gold.
But you can exchange your dollar for anything at anyone else who will accept it. So this shows you that the dollar, which has no burn mechanism, is actually, look at the underlying, so to speak, blockchain of the US economy. It prints huge deficits. Okay. Can someone please tell me, using the same model as for blockchains and the burn mechanism , why the dollar doesn't fall when the deficit increases?
Of course? This shows that you should abandon the belief that the economic model explains asset price US Clarity Act will stimulate unprecedented institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies by creating a single federal market structure for digital assets and eliminating procedural fragmentation. Although that schedule faces challenges after the Senate's August recess pushed the vote to September and reduced expectations for passage in 2026.
Despite legislative delays, institutional participation in the market is accelerating regardless, as evidenced by a 2026 Coinbase and EY Parthenon survey showing that 66% of institutional decision-makers already have spot ETP exposure . Almost three-quarters plan to increase allocations. 74% predict price growth over the next year, and asset managers’ interest in tokenizing domestic assets has increased from 40% in 2025 to 64 %.
Additionally, major global financial institutions are aggressively expanding digital infrastructure during times of market weakness, highlighted by Wells Fargo’s launch of 24-hour tokenized corporate deposits and a Standard Chartered-backed venture deploying a regulated Hong Kong dollar stablecoin , demonstrating that private equity is actively building custody and settlement systems before formal legislation to form a fundamental foundation for the long-term growth of cryptocurrencies.
Yes. Well, I mean , I would say I would start with macroeconomics. Um, you know, I've been a macro market person for over three decades. And when I look at the attribution, Stan Druckenmiller actually said the same thing . But, if you take the idea of stocks , okay? And you say how much of this can be attributed to macro factors and how much to industry factors, okay?
This is over 80% of the performance of the asset, the stock. And so 20% is actually related to the shares themselves. In cryptocurrency, when I look at these cycles, I would say the attribution is 90% macroeconomic. So, in other words, the differentiation of the narrative for Ethereum compared to other projects will ultimately only be 10% of the return on ETH as an asset.
So for today's investors, if they're talking about the price of ETH, I would say 90% of it is because we're in a " crypto spring." And even if you think it's " cryptowinter" right now, it will be over in less than 10 weeks. So, regardless of your bets on Ethereum and why you have formed a skeptical view among the “cryptozymes” , you are probably forgetting that 90% of the lag over the past few years is caused by it.
It's simply a matter of self-awareness and understanding the situation. But as far as the narrative goes, am I optimistic that Ethereum will lead the next crypto cycle? I am very confident in this. Because stablecoins were the main story of 2025, and that was perhaps all that defined that “ bull” market, and since then we’ve been through a “ cryptowinter.” But in the coming years, the story of stablecoins will continue to develop, as it is a tokenization of the dollar.
And this is very important, because it was a significant breakthrough. You know, stablecoins are widely used outside the US. However, there is a much larger market that is independent of the dollar economy, which is asset movement, and tokenization is much more important to me than stablecoins. And I think investors underestimate the importance of having a truly secure level of settlement.
Of course, it may not only be Ethereum. I think there will be opportunities that Solana will benefit from as well. But, judging from all the conversations I've had with large businesses. I believe that a lot of hope and marketing hype is placed on the idea of a new, first-level blockchain emerging as a platform for tokenization.
In practice, I think all the serious work— and we're already seeing it in the headlines— is done only on Solana or Ethereum. How big is this market? I think it could be huge. Um, and on top of that, and we've written about this, AI... Listen, AI capabilities are really growing rapidly, and I'll say this: a lot of people thought last year that AI was a " bubble," and they lost AI stocks; then this year they thought it was a " bubble" again, and missed it all again; and then they decided it was because of situational awareness.
Um, as far as I can tell, for me we're still in the exploration phase of what this market will ultimately be like. So, in my opinion, it's hardly a " bubble" until it actually is. Um, but the world of AI, the agent world, and the economy built on machine-to-machine transactions probably see much less value in traditional financial settlement networks.
Um, and also in their safety. They're actually easier to break, um, in this world. So I think , um, crypto is going to play a pretty big role in this world. And then you add to that the complexity of the real world , you know, things that operate in the wild, microtransaction management, instructions, and taxation.
Perhaps this could be done on centralized systems, but why? I would say it's actually a lot more complicated than running these things on blockchain rails. So I think there's a huge use case ahead that will make real cryptocurrency very relevant. So I think that during the next crypto " spring," um, if AI is now—it's a $ 10 trillion economy , right?
This is the total market size. But maybe it will grow to, you know, a hundred trillion. You know, will crypto stay, oh, will it get stuck, you know, at a trillion and a half ? I mean, I really, really doubt it. I think, you know, it could become almost as big as the target market for AI. According to market analysts Matt Hogan and Tom Lee, the foundation for the next major cryptocurrency bull market is actively forming, aided by subdued Bitcoin volatility, which threatens to trigger a sharp upward surge.
Despite potential short-term downside risks to the $50,000 range, Hogan expects Bitcoin to close 2026 higher , and predicts a fivefold increase in the long term, alongside a 10-100x expansion of the on-chain economy, where Ethereum stands to benefit significantly due to its dominant role in asset tokenization and stablecoins.
Complementing this long-term growth, Lee highlights upcoming regulatory clarity in the United States as a key catalyst that will unlock unprecedented institutional adoption, transforming the market and forcing investors to weigh whether to wait for the market’s eventual pullback or risk missing out on the inevitable rally entirely.
There is this view: people like Ethereum, but they are not sure if ETH has value. ETH, that is, the token, is that clear? And you know, this is, by the way, a variation of how the banks said, "Well, we believe in blockchain, but not in crypto." Or: we don't believe in Bitcoin, but we believe in blockchains.
Do you remember how many smart people made that statement? And then they said, "Well, Tom, Bitcoin is literally just software. Anyone can fork and recreate the chain. I could fork Bitcoin today and create my own Bitcoin. Why , and JP Morgan can create its own Bitcoin. Why would anyone use Bitcoin? Well, you know, someone would have to bet their fortune on blockchains or on Bitcoin as a narrative .
The guys who were betting on blockchain actually went bankrupt because they would have lost their fortune. And they made a lot of money owning Bitcoin. So the question I would ask is, if you really believe that you want to be long Ethereum, but you don't want to own ETH, what do you want to be? Do you want to be a service company?
You know, do you want to try to maximize MEV? Do you want to try to consolidate all the nodes or validators, you know? What would you try to do? You would try to buy out all the Ethereum developers who is in the market? You would n't achieve anything because eventually, and I guarantee you this, this narrative will disappear once the crypto bull market starts and Ethereum starts to rise .
In my opinion, this is all bear market talk. I didn't even hear about this view until the crypto prices started to fall. So if someone tells me that the reason Ethereum hasn't risen is because its narrative is unclear, I think Ethereum has outperformed a lot of other cryptocurrencies. Of course, some projects have stood out, like Hyperliquid and Lighter, because they operate almost like quasi-companies.
But you know, they are also highly specialized , in a way, systems. So they're not trying to capture the whole future of what could become future payment networks, right? They operate within a very specific framework, and I think that's why it works. Ethereum actually works incredibly well. So despite all the criticism and what people are saying about very controversial and opposing views on how to prioritize the essence of Ethereum.
It's incredibly efficient. There's never been any downtime, look at the quality improvements and how secure the platform is. So, to me, would people feel better if there was a direct connection? Like, an economic or legal connection of the ETH coin to Ethereum? You know, I'm sure that would make people feel a lot better.
But for us at Bitmain, is that material from our perspective? It doesn't change anything. Actually, again , I'm just going to point out something that people forget. The dollar itself doesn't actually trade for anything. Okay? And it's actually considered the gold standard of currency. It's literally our unit of account .
If you took your dollar and tried to exchange it with the federal government, they would just print you another dollar. You can't exchange it for gold. But you can exchange your dollar with anyone else who will accept it. So it just goes to show that a dollar that doesn't have a burn mechanism, actually, look at the underlying, so to speak, blockchain of the US economy.
It prints huge deficits. Okay. Please explain to me, using the same model they have for blockchains and the burn mechanism , why the dollar doesn't collapse when deficits increase? Okay. That shows you have to abandon the belief that the economic model explains asset prices. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan has an optimistic long-term outlook for bitcoin, predicting a potential five-fold price increase and maintaining a 10-year target of $1 million , driven by the release of pent-up volatility.
While bitcoin has fallen significantly from its late-2025 high of over $126,000 and is trading around $63,000, Hogan emphasizes that for investors with a ten-year horizon, short-term price lows are much less important than whether The asset has exhausted its upside. Supporting the structural evolution towards institutional-grade liquidity , recent market data reflects a decline in realized volatility, reduced transaction costs, and the emergence of new institutional instruments such as CME Volatility Futures.
While the broader market consensus expects a potential 4-year cycle low around September or October 2026 , and analysts such as Michael Turpin and Galaxy Digital point to possible pullbacks to the $40,000 to $57,000 range, Hogan cautions against focusing too much on this expected day, noting that Bitcoin’s partial dip below $58,000 in July may have already accounted for much of this weakness.
As a result, trying to pick the perfect moment for a short-term entry near $50,000 carries an asymmetric risk of missing out on a rapid rally before year-end, especially given the overall uptrend. momentum around tokenized assets and on-chain infrastructure.
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