저자: TomLee외RaoulPal등 · 외국인
요약 보기
이더리움이 기관 토큰화·스테이블코인 결제의 기반 레이어로 자리잡아 네트워크 가치가 현재 시총 대비 크게 저평가됐다는 주장. 토큰화 실물자산 75% 이상, 스테이블코인 공급 60% 이상 점유 등을 근거로 제시. 최근 조정은 강세장 전 단계의 정상적 괴리이며 '크립토 스프링'으로 규정. 이더리움 목표가 1~5조달러 시총, 2026년 7월 5조달러 전망. 비트코인은 단순하고 유망한 베팅으로 언급. 연말까지 암호화폐 성장 여력이 크다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Why do we trade in the US stock market when Korean stocks are cheaper? Ethereum is ahead of everyone by a huge margin. This is the platform that not only has the largest number of wallets and the most activity , but is also a place where financial institutions are already building. So, the question to ask is: if financial institutions that have chosen a public blockchain suddenly wanted to bet on a new illiquid chain, wouldn’t there be code or adoption issues in the future?
Or problems with their market makers, or with their node operators? It turns out that we are creating a whole series of cascading problems, even though Ethereum is actually the platform of choice today. and Raoul Pal describe a hyper- bullish structural expansion for the crypto market, arguing that as the global financial system moves online, Ethereum and next- generation, first-level blockchains will become the foundation of the future of the internet and global economy , uniting finance, artificial intelligence, and economic coordination.
Despite the recent price lag, Lee characterizes the current market situation as a “ crypto spring” underpinned by strengthening fundamentals, predicting the Ethereum network’s value will grow from hundreds of billions to a $1, $2 or even $5 trillion asset class as financial digitization and tokenization of real assets accelerate.
Complementing this thesis, Pal emphasizes that Bitcoin remains one of the simplest and most promising bets , while Ethereum has the strongest Lindy effect and network resilience among smart contract platforms, together laying a multi-trillion-dollar foundation for the next major growth cycle of blockchain infrastructure.
I think everyone has their own opinion, but our position this year is that crypto fundamentals are strengthening, which is a real contrast to past crypto winters that were marked by closures, lack of capital, and shrinking use cases. We know that tokenization is gaining significant popularity . I mean, a lot of well-known large financial institutions are creating tokenized products, in particular on Ethereum.
Additionally, we see that as AI capabilities develop, it becomes very apparent that AI agents do not want to use traditional financial systems, so crypto rails make a lot of sense. So for us, last week was what I would call a correction, as price is finally starting to realize that we don't have to be in deep crypto winter.
And, as you point out, the fact that there was a mass liquidation shows how unprepared the market was for reality. And, as the famous John Russell says, all rallies begin with covering short positions. So, for us, I think this is the beginning of a much bigger movement. You know , I think there will be a lot of questions, especially for those who don't have exposure right now , it's an obvious tactical question.
And my answer to anyone who doesn't own cryptocurrency right now or has insufficient exposure: If you look at past cryptocurrency cycles and could buy cryptocurrency 4 weeks or 1 week after the low, would you do it every day? And the answer is: everyone should obviously buy 4 weeks before the low or 1 week after the low.
So, if the low was last week, then you buy 1 week after the low. If there is a pullback, which is quite possible, then you buy at least 4 weeks in advance . So, in any case, I think you should, you know, thank yourself for making such a tactical decision. I think if someone tries to guess the bottom and do what I call buying the middle part of the rally, they will miss out on most of the profits because we have published statistics, and it really works for over a decade, that cryptocurrency makes all of its moves in 10 days.
And if you miss the top 10 days, you will actually have negative returns. So how many wonderful days were there in 2026? One. So I think cryptocurrency has significant growth potential until the end of the year. Yes, there is this concept of the "uncanny valley." So, there's a famous Japanese roboticist who wrote about the idea that if robots start to look too human, people become very uncomfortable.
And that's true. I think we'll be very embarrassed the day we see androids walking around and we can't tell them apart from humans. Well, the same thing will happen to the financial system and your money, because agent systems get a lot of power. In fact, we already know that within many of these models, agents buy more tokens than humans.
So, we know that agent activity is increasing. Well, there will be a similar " uncanny valley" moment regarding your money. Because once AI systems become part of our economy, they will become revenue-generating units, potentially even taxable units, and they can be delegated powers and they will work on our behalf.
But what's to stop them from deciding to act independently and make their own financial decisions, including accessing your accounts and executing transactions that you may have already authorized? For me, this will be the " uncanny valley" of wealth: over time, it is likely that an increasing portion of our individual wealth will be created by our delegated agents.
Can we trust them, if they operate through Visa infrastructure and JP Morgan accounts, that they will not deplete our financial resources? I think that's why we need cryptoassets, smart contracts, finality, and instant payments— the things that are the essence of cryptocurrencies—to protect us from agent systems getting out of control .
This is one of those things that I think people don't really appreciate, especially those who write code or just draw diagrams on a whiteboard, is network value; The network effects of a widely used system are catastrophically underestimated because people don't know how to monetize them. For example, why do we all use dollars?
I mean, there are many liquid currencies, but since the dollar is not only the most recognized and, as they say, the longest-standing, why would we use anything else? This is true for almost every asset, whether it's real estate. Why do we own land, you know? Why do we trade in the US stock market when Korean stocks are cheaper?
Ethereum is a platform that leads by a huge margin : it not only has the largest number of wallets and activity, but is also the place where financial institutions are already building their solutions . So it’s worth asking: if financial institutions have already chosen to use a public blockchain , will they suddenly want to bet on a new illiquid chain that may have code issues , implementation issues, or difficulties with market makers or other node operators?
You are creating a whole series of cascading problems, even though Ethereum is actually the platform of choice today. Tom Lee's main thesis is that Ethereum's long-term valuation is driven by its expanding fundamental economy, rather than short-term price fluctuations , and relies on three main institutional catalysts.
Absolute neutrality, dominance of real assets, and maturity of the established ecosystem. First, as AI agents, corporate entities, and global financial institutions increasingly transact on the network, Ethereum's decentralized and trusted neutrality ensures that no corporation or state can manipulate the finality of transactions, making it the primary settlement layer for global commerce.
Second, Ethereum is embracing the vast majority of the tokenization wave, hosting over 75% of real- world tokenized assets and over 60% of the global stablecoin supply, demonstrating its ability to make traditional financial markets more efficient, programmable, and composable. Third, based on its long history of operation and the Ethereum Foundation’s official guidelines defining it as a neutral public infrastructure for governments and enterprises, Ethereum provides the structural robustness and regulatory security necessary for institutional implementation, which suggests a significant increase in the value of its underlying economic network ahead of a large-scale market repricing.
I mean, the tokenization supercycle probably best explains what's going on. I think Vlad has the most trustworthy perspective on these things. Why is that so? Well, first, he has proven his ability to make financial changes by building a company that has reached significant scale. I mean, Robinhood, remember, was a real innovation for traditional stock and asset markets because it offered virtually free trading.
But maybe it was a unique feature, but in reality he created a platform where the user experience was completely different. When people used Robinhood, swiping and navigating with such ease compared to the archaic trading applications in other apps, it proves that it truly understood how to innovate.
Well, you know what? Financial rails are long overdue for an upgrade to a 21st or 22nd century platform. Today's financial system is a very complex structure with many layers of intermediaries, outdated and disparate systems that operate through interfaces and require a lot of manual intervention to conduct transactions.
And while many believe it works well, and it does, it does not provide the speed, accuracy, and low cost that blockchain could achieve. So, this is what Vlad is talking about: if the financial system were to move to crypto rails, it would not only open up much faster and cheaper access, but perhaps most importantly, it would create huge innovation, because when you can move things much faster, in a truly digital way.
Many things that we don't usually consider money could suddenly become them. So, this is the huge breakthrough. You know, today the dollar becomes a digital dollar when it turns into a stablecoin. There are already stocks that trade as software, that is, as tokenized stocks on blockchains. But when we turn stocks into software and money into code, we can turn things into digital money that traditionally were n't considered money: loyalty points, reputation, influence, sponsorships, or the future value of contracts—all things we don't usually think of as money, but that can obviously be monetized.
That's the key, and how much bigger a market can this create? Think about it: today's financial system is huge, with over 150 trillion in liquid assets. It is essentially based on two simple asset classes: bonds and stocks. Everything else traded on the market is derived from them. First, if you tokenize all of this, the market for available assets will not be 140 trillion, but could reach 500 trillion.
This could be intellectual property, future licensing, or various resources. So, we have a much larger, as they say, addressable market. But at the same time, it is possible to significantly innovatively change the current stock market. So yeah, I think " supercycle" is the best word, but it probably understates the scale of the innovation coming to the crypto world.
Ross, well, I mean, this is a really important issue, and I think people tend to have very simplistic or one-sided views of its importance. Layer 2 (L2) solutions play an important role in Ethereum, and this is built into the design itself. They offer innovations , hopefully in speed and capacity, while relying on the base-level security of Ethereum.
This is why, in my opinion , it is important to understand: even if L2 solutions do not generate fees, their existence depends on the security, finality, and trust of the L1 level, which can create great value. Now Base and the Robinhood chain have become incredibly successful , and I know that Robinhood, like Coinbase, is making a good amount of revenue.
Although not as big as Coinbase received before. In the future, the growth in volume should drive significant economic value creation for both L2 creators and increase the need and desire of users to conduct calculations on the Ethereum network. I know many people think that over time people will want to create their own L1 networks, and I think that's possible, but look at what happened, for example, with Revolut and the launch of their stablecoin.
They ultimately didn't launch it on Tempo, even despite partnering with Stripe. It was launched on Ethereum . After all, there's a reason why people choose Ethereum, and it's, you know, the most liquid chain. So, I think over time, all of this will change how people actually value Ethereum. I think there are a lot of people who want to try to value chains based on cash flows.
And of course, there are many success stories. So Hyperliquid and Lighter are very, very good examples of chains that have cash flow models. But the most successful assets in liquid markets today, like stocks, actually act more as stores of value than as cash-flowing assets. I think that's a very important distinction, and I think it's a subtle distinction that not everyone understands well.
But most stocks today are not really held or valued like that, and their growth is less about cash flow and more about value preservation . Tom Lee’s aggressive thesis on Ethereum is based on the premise that the network’s current market capitalization significantly underestimates its long-term potential as global traditional assets migrate to the network, arguing that while Bitcoin and Ethereum together represent less than $2 trillion , they are next to hundreds of trillions of dollars in global real estate, stocks, and gold that are ready to be tokenized and digitized.
Confirming his prediction for a $ 5 trillion network valuation in July 2026, Lee notes that Ethereum already serves as the fundamental settlement infrastructure for over $155 billion in stablecoins, alongside a dominant share of tokenized real assets, meaning its ultimate value will be directly dependent on the volume of real economic activity that rests on its rails.
Speaking about the apparent gap where network fundamentals are rising while spot prices are lagging, he explains that such divergence is a natural characteristic of early-cycle market dynamics. Recalling that previous cycles required lengthy retesting and consolidation phases before reaching true breakout velocity, he argues that when this temporary gap between rising utility and low price action finally disappears, Ethereum will undergo a rapid upward re-evaluation to reflect its greatly expanded role in the global financial system.
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