저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인 급락은 10월 10일 바이낸스 소프트웨어 오류로 인한 약 280억 달러 규모 강제청산(마진콜) 여파로, 이것이 대부분 해소되는 중이라고 주장. 80,000달러 부근을 재테스트 중이며 80~90,000달러 범위 지지를 예상. 비트코인은 디지털 금, 기술 혁신, 새로운 자산군이라는 3가지 혁명을 상징한다고 주장. 금과 비트코인 상관관계는 0.14로 낮아 함께 움직이지 않으며, 금이 먼저 오르고 비트코인이 뒤따를 가능성 제시. 양자컴퓨터 위협은 최소 10년 후 문제로 과장되었다고 봄. ARK는 하락 중 암호화폐 관련주에 7,200만 달러를 투입. 2030년 비트코인 100만~150만 달러 목표를 장기 강세 시나리오로 제시.
다듬은 글
uh to the tune of about $28 billion. Uh we know some of the entities that were caught up in that. They were caught flatfooted. Uh and we think that is just now washing through the system. So if you're looking for something that has weighed on it recently, we do think that happened. Uh Bitcoin's the most liquid of all crypto assets, so it's the first margin call, right?
Uh and we think we think that's pretty much worked it way out. So, we're testing here around 80,000 again. Uh we think uh that we're going to hold in the 80 to 90,000 range unless all hell breaks loose uh in Iran, let's say, and then maybe we'll see the store of value uh come back for Bitcoin. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance.
Many investors are wondering why Bitcoin isn't acting like digital gold since it has dropped near dollar60,000 while gold is reaching all-time highs. Kathy Wood, CEO of ArchInvest, boldly said in the midst of this turmoil that Bitcoin is more than just digital gold. It is the simultaneous embodiment of three significant revolutions by using $72 million to purchase the dip and outlining her predictions for the future of Bitcoin.
She is supporting that viewpoint. The obvious difference between gold and Bitcoin in recent years is what people find confusing. While Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its October peak, gold has increased. Wood brought attention to this discrepancy and tackled the apparent query. If Bitcoin is digital gold, why aren't they moving in tandem in our cause big ideas 2026 report?
The story is altered by her response. Since 2019, there has been a minuscule 0.14 link between Bitcoin and gold returns. They hardly move in unison at 0.14. As a perfect correlation would be 1.0. zero stated differently. It is unrealistic to expect them to behave in the same way because they are not the same asset.
The positive viewpoint is as follows. Historically, gold has a tendency to surge first followed by a greater advance from Bitcoin with cited previous examples in which Bitcoin rose after gold. She says that as gold is currently going through one of its strongest runs ever, this might be paving the way for Bitcoin's next big surge.
Yeah. Uh yes. First thing you should know, Bitcoin and gold are not correlated. We did the analysis. If you go over this cycle from 2020 to today, uh the correlation, so one would be a perfect correlation. Uh minus one would be an in, you know, the inversion when one goes up, the other one goes down.
It's as close to zero as you can get. So no correlation. That's really important for everyone to know. If you look at the last two cycles, gold led Bitcoin. And then the third thing uh I will say is um if you'll find this on my uh on X Kathy D. Wood a chart showing gold divided by M2. It has only been it has never been higher.
It hit a new al all-time high all-time high this week. Now it's starting to correct. We put I don't think it's because we put this chart out, but I will say uh what I said in there is gold is probably riding for a fall because the last two times it was anywhere near this was in the massive inflation.
So doubledigit inflation in the 70s early 80s and before that the great depression when gold well the dollar was devalued in gold terms from 20.67 67 to 35. That's a 70% devaluation. That's like emerging market kind of devaluation. Right? Back in 1934, uh January 31st, 1934, the government confiscated private gold, didn't allow any more private ownership of gold, and money supply collapsed.
Now, we're not in anything like either of those two worlds. And yet, gold is where it is. I think if I if I were a betting person and I can't give advice necessarily, but I would make a shift from gold into Bitcoin because I do think the knocks on Bitcoin in the last year have been stable coins are taking some of the role that Bitcoin was going to play in emerging markets.
That's true. But that's not forever. That's just for the equivalent of a checking account. when they want real savings, they're going to buy Bitcoin, we believe, especially if it's a$ 1.5 million uh dollar price target in in 2030. That's our bullc case is right. And this idea digital gold, it is better than gold actually.
You know why? Because the supply well that yes, that's critical. But the supply in terms of monetary policy, the supply growth of Bitcoin is 0.8% 8% per year and it'll drop to 0.4 in another two years. I'll bet you a lot that gold supplies are going to be up much more than that. Their average over time is 1%.
So I think I think with inter intergenerational wealth transfer that uh that Bitcoin is going to take off here. Uh point there. Uh you've heard of the flash crash 1010. Okay. So please educate me. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. This I think it's very few people know this but because there's been there have been so many other things to worry about.
Uh but on October 10th there was a flash crash caused by a software glitch at Binance and there was an auto deleveraging event. People were just you know margin called uh to the tune of about 28 billion dollars. Uh we know some of the entities that were caught up in that. they were caught flatfooted.
Uh, and we think that is just now washing through the system. So, if you're looking for something that has weighed on it recently, we do think that happened. Uh, Bitcoin's the most liquid of all crypto assets, so it's the first margin call, right? Uh, and we think we think that's pretty much worked it way out.
So, we're testing here around 80,000 again. uh we think uh that we're going to hold in the 80 to 90,000 range unless all hell breaks loose uh in Iran, let's say, and then maybe we'll see the store of value uh come back for Bitcoin. Kathy Wood presented her main point here. According to her, Bitcoin symbolizes three significant changes taking place simultaneously and is more than just digital gold.
First, according to her, it is a digital worldwide monetary system that is founded on laws. The crucial element is the rules-based component. According to her, Bitcoin represents a completely new monetary system that is in competition with fiat systems worldwide. It's not just another kind of money.
Second, she refers to it as a revolution in technology. Native digital currencies that can fuel online and AIdriven trade are made possible by Bitcoin and other crypto networks which add a new layer to the internet. She identifies Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana as important actors because as AI agents develop, they will require money that runs smoothly online.
Third, she believes that cryptocurrency with Bitcoin at the forefront is a completely new asset class. She emphasizes that the largest decentralized computing system in the world supports Bitcoin making it the most secure network. She highlights among other things that Bitcoin has a poor correlation with other assets around 0.14.
Including Bitcoin in a portfolio can increase risk adjusted returns because it moves on its own. Because of this, she thinks that institutions will eventually need to make funding for it. We'd also talked about worries about the crypto industry's fragmentation. She contends that the main contenders Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana are starting to emerge.
The main networks in the market are beginning to be identified. Crucially, she is taking concrete steps to support her argument. ARK put $72 million into cryptocurrency related equities and assets during the current slump, including its own Bitcoin ETF, Coinbase, Circle, Bullish, and Robin Hood. Others are afraid, but what is getting more publicity?
Well, it is uh because AI is the catalyst to all of the other innovation platforms to speeding them up as well. There's a great convergence taking place. So uh if you think about robo taxis it's the convergence among robots robo taxis are robots obviously energy storage they will be electric and AI they'll be powered by AI uh they couldn't exist without AI and we think uh that that's going to scale to a global revenue uh generation opportunity of more than $10 trillion.
ion dollars in the next 5 to 10 years from almost nothing today. Uh and uh another example of convergence is in the health care space. Many people don't think about technology as much or AI as much when uh they think about health care but it's probably the most profound application of AI and it's the convergence of sequencing technologies including single cell sequencing.
We each have 35 to 40 trillion cells in our bodies and now we're going to be able to sequence down to the cell level. So s sequencing technologies, AI and then crisper gene editing which is able to edit out programming errors that we are now able to find uh thanks to the convergence between AI and DNA sequencing.
Well, all kinds of sequencing, right? There's a huge wall of worry. Uh the strongest bull markets uh are climbing walls of worry. Uh I remember I was in the internet well the tech and telecom bubble as it's called. And there was no worry at all. The only the only investors worrying uh were value investors because they thought they'd lose their businesses, right?
And they ended up having the last laugh back then. Uh but the most senior portfolio managers and investors in our industry today, they were fairly young during the tech and telecom bubble. They now have the gray hairs and they're saying been there, done that. I am not going to get caught in that kind of a mess again.
So, uh we have, you know, two steps forward, one step back as you get that kind of worry. uh and uh the reason we think this is not like the internet is because we have so many technologies now. Back then as you say we we had come off sort of the PC and PC software cycle into uh the internet age and then into mobile.
But uh we do we don't we didn't have five major platforms evolving at the same time. and they involve 15 different technologies. So the five platforms are robotics, energy, storage and AI. And of course Tesla is the poster child capitalizing on that one. The other two innovation platforms are blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing in the life science space.
Um what we are expecting is the convergence of these technologies um will be like S-curves feeding S-curves. So in in most technologies they evolve slowly slowly then all at once right. Well we're having all of these technologies. Yes. It's taken a long time for autonomous mobility to get here really.
Um we were talking about it at the founding of ARC uh in 2014. Uh but it is here and part of the reason is robotics, energy storage and AI have developed enough uh have evolved enough so that their costs are low enough so that we're ready for prime time. I'm going to give you an example of okay how ridiculous in the tech and telecom bubble it was.
It was it included biotech and there was this dream of personalized medicine back then. Why? Because we were close to sequencing the first whole human genome. Uh back then uh it cost $2.7 billion to sequence one person's genome. Today it costs $100. Think about that, right? So from 2.7 billion to 100, we are ready for prime time.
The technologies are ready and the costs are low enough. So this is where we're going to learn a lot. I think investing's that the pendulum shift is is going to move back to longer term time horizons. What we're what many analysts are struggling with right now is um the short-term time horizon they have.
You know, I want my profits now. I want my dividends now, my share repurchases now. Uh and unfortunately, it is going to take some time partly because of the supply chain issues. Uh we're seeing TSM, you know, it was interesting. TSM's capex was stalled at roughly 10 billion, right? Uh and we were thinking, okay, is TSM signaling that there is a an inventory uh problem looming out there?
Well, I think they just jacked that up, didn't they? Jack it up to I forget what? Yes. Quite significantly. and that and they're extremely cautious. They've been through many many many cycles and what they do is they they they go to the customers of their customers. uh that's how paranoid they are about this inventory situation and I think they they learned as they were doing that wait a minute uh what what's happening is the applications uh associated with I AI are so broad so profound and the productivity changes uh are are so enormous uh that you know they they began to understand wait a minute this is a revolution It's a revolution.
The main issue at hand is quantum computing. According to Wood, the primary concern in recent times has been quantum innovations and their potential to jeopardize Bitcoin. Speculation has been stoked by recent stories and significant wallet movements, including early holders moving money potentially into wallets that are more resistant to quantum.
However, she agreed with Michael Sailor that it will be at least 10 years before quantum computing becomes a serious threat. They believe that rather than being the real cause of the slump, it is being utilized as a convenient reason to sell. According to Wood, the number of unfavorable news about Bitcoin has increased recently.
There are innumerable pessimistic reasons on social media that urge investors to sell. However, she views these extremely negative times as possibly significant chances. Since sentiment is so gloomy, ARK has actually been progressively increasing its holdings in cryptorelated stocks. According to ARK's big ideas 2026 research, the cryptocurrency market may expand by 61% a year and reach 28 trillion by 2030.
Wood thinks the market might be at or close to the bottom of current cycle and that Bitcoin alone might hit $1 million per coin. Therefore, it would maintains her argument that Bitcoin represents three significant revolutions at once. Even though it has fallen to $60,000 and gold is reaching new highs, and many are urging investors to go out.
Since gold usually moves first, this unprecedented gold rush may be important to future developments. She considers quantum fears to be exaggerated, sees Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana as the obvious leaders, and has spent $72 million during the panic when others withdrew.
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