저자: Davide · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2020년 같은 과열장 이후 시장이 변했으니 초보 투자자는 맹목적 추종 대신 스스로 공부해 근거 있는 투자를 해야 한다는 주장. 시장 환경: 2020~2021년 초 나스닥·개별주 급등, 로빈후드 등 개인투자 열풍과 정부 부양금이 배경이었다고 설명. 과열 사례: 애플·페이스북·구글 등 핵심 기업은 실적과 맞는 상승이었으나, 유튜브 테마주(Nikola, Bionano, Virgin Galactic, 각종 스팩 등)는 거품 성격이라 다수가 손실을 봤다고 주장. 지수 상황: S&P500은 사실상 신고가 부근, 나스닥도 유사하나 지수 상승은 FANG 등 대형주에 집중되어 있고 평균 개인투자자 포트폴리오는 S&P500과 나스닥에 크게 뒤처졌다고 주장(근거 수치 제시 없음). 전망: 2021년은 2020년과 다르며, 최근 유튜브 열기가 식었으므로 이후 3~4개월 내 단기 투자자는 이탈할 것으로 예상. 초보 투자자 행동지침: 시장이 평온할 때 재무제표 읽기, 기업 가치평가(비교기업, PER 등 배수, 할인현금흐름 DCF) 학습 권장. 유료 강의보다 무료 자료로 공부할 것. 핵심 원칙: 타인(유튜버 등) 말에 의존하지 말고 스스로 분석한 뒤 결정. 자신이 왜 샀는지 모르는 주식은 하락기에 버티기 어렵다고 강조. 피터 린치 인용: 냉장고·자동차는 꼼꼼히 조사하면서 주식은 버스에서 들은 말로 큰돈을 넣는다는 비유, 주식을 복권처럼 취급하지 말 것. 종목·지수 개별 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello everyone it's davide here and welcome back to learning finance in today's video guys i want to do actually something a little bit more generic right so i will not analyze a specific stock but i want to talk about the situation in the stock market and why i do think and actually is what in my opinion is happening that the stock market has changed as i told you in previous videos i don't know if you follow the channel if you remember that well 2021 was not going to be as 2020 right i think i made it pretty clear so the stock market has changed it will continue to be like that going on in the future in my opinion the question right now is how to invest in this particular market because well there is a thing maybe you have already years of experience previously right so before the pandemic happened and then boom the bounce back but if you're actually joined the stock market in this period of time where basically you were buying everything and you were making money no matter what what you were buying well probably now things will be a little bit more complicated okay going on in the future everyone is a genius during a bull market but when it comes to the real stock market okay so periods of sideways periods of downtrends and stuff like that so the old boring stock market behavior well not everyone is a genius anymore right so in today's video i want to talk about how actually i am planning to continue to invest going on in the future the only thing i ask you guys as always is please leave me a like it's very important and i thank you for it and subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any new updates let's begin the major idea and investment philosophy behind this video is actually the idea of peter lynch okay one of the best investors actually ever existed in the financial world well what he said back then is actually in my opinion still making a lot of sense in today's market at the end of the video i will also leave you some bits of an interview so that you can better understand actually directly from him what he meant alright guys so let's say that you joined the stock market actually during april last year okay 2020 wonderful period to actually finally go on and meet the stock market 2020 will remain in history okay now this is just the nasdaq but if you look at single stocks we have returns that are mind-blowing okay and you don't see this kind of stuff very often in the history so 2020 will be in history books in terms of financial returns in the stock market but what is the thing 2020 has been something that we could consider an excess in statistics if you have a data set you will always find those kind of extreme numbers that are you say well let's not include them in the average okay because otherwise is biased and 2020 my opinion has been that kind of year something strange because everyone was at home didn't have much to do and then you will try to find all the ways to make money right so go on and yeah the stock market it's the easiest way that i can do you have robin hood you have all this kind of stuff and then the government will also give money in the us but also other countries as well so everyone actually got involved in this and we know the history right we know what's happened complete madness we have seen obviously interesting stocks like apple facebook google all this kind of stuff that they have performed extremely well but you know what their business actually was in line with the prices and then what we have seen are a lot of hype stocks on youtube actually everyone was going on coming crazy everyone was a genius uh we so i don't know everything okay from lots of eevee nikola motors then we have seen a lot of genomics stuff all right so i remember when i was talking about bionano saying that guys i don't know what they do i don't like to invest in actually what i really don't understand and i told you how it was very difficult to actually try to understand the fair price of the company because we don't know actually nothing but the truth is that everything literally everything was going to the moon so it was kind of very complicated to actually warn people that well it was pure madness okay i tried to do it many times but actually you know i was the boring guy going on everyone is making money and that's it but you know just three four five months later it turns out that i was right this is why i was trying to tell you before because a lot of new investors now this is just an example but everything has gone on in that way you go on here and say for example virgin galactic and exactly the same has happened and if you were going on make a video around here this is just madness well you were receiving lots of thumbs down and hate comments for saying that but guess what happened right same stuff we have seen with a lot of sparks like literally every single spec out there has been busted so as we can see now we are in a situation where actually a lot of people in my opinion have lost money i kind of see the enthusiasm finishing on average it kind of seems to me that during the last month the hype on youtube let's say has decreased a lot but when it comes to see the indexes actually the smp is very near to whole time high and the nasdaq exactly the same stuff but i am pretty sure that if you check the portfolios of the average investor out there they have way underperformed the smp the nasdaq since basically january 2021.
i'm 100 sure about that why is that well simple uh in the s p we see that it's almost a whole time high but if you take a look at what stocks are actually influencing the smp you have first of all the fang okay so a huge chunk of the index is just because of apple facebook microsoft google this is what is moving the index and all of them have literally done a pretty well we see google i did an analysis actually very near to whole time high then we have facebook over there as well so all-time high once again look at that microsoft they have done pretty well so those are the kind of companies that are moving the index but the problem is that no one really cares about those stocks and everyone was focused into hype stocks they have underperformed the s p and that's fair enough now what is the thing how do we continue going on in the future because in my opinion now is where actually who is really passionate about the stock market will remain and try to learn and try to actually understand how it works properly but who came just during the pandemic thought that just i don't know put a thousand in it and become rich and get rich quick well in my opinion lots of those investors they have already lost money and in the next three four months when they realized that the market will not be like in 2020 anymore they will just quit and this is my prediction i don't know i can't be wrong but it's very likely they will go like that so if you are actually interested in the stock market what can you do what can you do well it's pretty simple first of all if you are new actually i would start to take this moment of let's say peace right where stocks are actually not going anywhere to learn right so try to if you like long-term investing try to understand try to read and get informed about fundamental analysis start with simple stuff do not overpay for courses just go online and try to understand how to read the balance sheet how to do this kind of stuff how to understand a business and get passionate about it then when you understand those things go on and try to understand the different types of valuations okay so the competitors so when you do with comparables ratios discounter free cash flows so all this kind of stuff try to get involved with those kind of stuff in my opinion the best thing that you can do is to have the knowledge to actually think with your mind because in 2020 lots of people they just went on youtube find five minutes videos of a random guy saying that the new genomics blah blah blah stock was gonna get the millionaire by tomorrow and they just put money in it but well this is not how it works in the stock market right so in my opinion do not rely on anyone if you have the knowledge you can do your own analysis and that's it that's the best thing you can do so literally the best thing that you can probably do is to train yourself and actually take better informed decision with your mind right because when you take decisions because someone else is saying you to do it actually yeah everything is fine as long as well green days are here but is when a little bit of trouble comes and then negative trends or sideways moves that you really start to doubt your decisions right if you don't know why you bought a stock in the first place actually it's very difficult to keep holding and take decisions where actually pain is coming so in my opinion if you are new to the market now is the right time where you should literally learn and know why you're buying those kind of stocks and businesses in the first place so everything i said in the video actually you can find it in this particular interview of peter lynch now obviously what i said in the video is for today's environment right so 2021 with different technologies and stuff and youtube mainly right where you go on and find information now this interview from peter lynch actually was like 25 30 years ago they didn't have youtube back then but basically he's saying exactly the same stuff i suggest you actually to go on and take a look at it it's just a five minutes video by my opinion is extremely interesting i cannot upload it because of copyright i'll leave the link down in the description what peter lynch is pointing out is basically how even back then people were behaving with their money in different ways when it comes to buy something like a fridge a car or stuff like that and then invest in stocks when they had to buy a car or a fridge or whatever they used to do a lot of research so try to learn everything about the model the type how many horsepower a car has all these kind of features and stuff as well as for a fridge or if they had to go on vacation they were trying to book a tour guide to know everything about the place but when it comes to stocks he points out how actually someone on the bus talks to you about something and just five minutes and you put half of your life saving into that particular stock so it's a little bit exaggerated but in reality if you think about that is not that exaggerated now in today's time actually instead of a bus we have like the random guy on youtube but the concept is still exactly the same and he says because of that actually the average investor the beginner is very likely to lose money so overall guys i think that if you really get passionate about something and you want to learn more about something you will do great okay i have no doubts about that the only thing to avoid in my opinion as peter lynch said is to take stocks as lottery tickets it doesn't work like that for a small percentage of people well it can happen that they get lucky but overall on average you will end up losing money so know what you own and think and take decisions with your mind is probably the best thing you can do in this field so overall guys i hope you find the video interesting and leave me a like leave me a comment below actually tell me what you think about that subscribe to the channel if you want and as always guys have a wonderful day
Comments 0