저자: Davide · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 채권매입 축소 가능성과 인플레이션 우려 속에서 Michael Burry·Ray Dalio의 방어적 포지션을 소개하고, 개인투자자는 현금 일부 보유와 현금흐름이 탄탄한 우량주 분할매수를 권장한다. 거시 배경: 2021년 경기 재개로 인플레이션이 급등했고 연준이 채권매입 축소(테이퍼링)를 시사할 수 있으며, 2013년 테이퍼 탠트럼 사례를 근거로 시장이 미리 학습하도록 연준이 신호를 주고 있다고 해석. 투자자 포지션: Burry(Scion)는 장기국채 ETF(TLT 계열 추정)에 숏을 늘려 금리 상승에 베팅했고 테슬라 숏도 확대(포트폴리오 약 35%). Dalio(Bridgewater)는 S&P500 비중을 37% 줄이고 필수소비재로 이동. 진행자는 고평가 기술주 대신 현금흐름 좋은 저PER 기업 선호. 연준 전망: 채매입이 완전 중단되기보다 축소될 것으로 보며, BofA는 국채 800억·MBS 400억 달러 매입을 700억·350억으로 줄이는 시나리오를 언급. 연준은 높은 부채 부담 때문에 금리 급등을 피하고 약간의 인플레이션을 용인할 가능성이 크다고 봄. 리스크: 부채가 많은 리커버리 종목(카니발, 아메리칸항공 등)은 금리 상승에 취약해 가치주로 볼 수 없다고 경고. 조정(10~12%)은 정상적 현상. 종목 언급: 페이스북(META)은 현금흐름이 커 인플레 국면에서도 안전한 베팅으로 제시, 구글 콜 매수 언급. 스퀘어(SQ)는 200달러 이하 하락 시 추가 매수, 팔란티어·테슬라는 현 가격에서 추가 매수 보류. 월마트 등 필수소비재 콜옵션 언급. 행동 지침: 변동성 속 일정 비율 현금 보유를 권장하고, 가격이 싸지면 좋아하는 미국 기업을 장기 분할 축적. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 단기 조정 가능성을 열어두되, 연준의 급격한 금리 인상은 제한적일 것으로 예상.
다듬은 글
hello everyone it's davide here and welcome back to learning finance so in this beautiful monday as the s p is approaching whole time highs the nasdaq obviously destroyed all-time highs and also the dow jones is approaching all-time highs probably many of us are asking ourselves how long can this last and most of all will the fed taper his bond plan okay so reduce the bond purchase and increase interest yields all these problems with inflation fear of higher inflation how all of that can end we have seen interesting investors like michael berry from show capital assuming a negative positions on actually the bond market as well as ray dalio from bridgewater which actually sold a big part of his portfolio invested in the s p 500 reducing dramatically by 37 percent his position so is a correction due by the end of the year and most of all how us normal people without hundreds of millions of dollars to edge or positions in the market how can we approach this particular and strange moment of uncertainty in the stock market so in today's video guys i will try to give you my opinion on that what i am doing the only thing i ask you guys as always please please leave me a like it's very important and i thank you for it and subscribe to our channel so you don't miss any new updates let's begin so now first of all let's talk about the fat now as you have seen actually during the recent quarters we have seen a reopening of the economy a spike up in inflation a spike up of everything okay in terms of prices so from real estate to lumber to oil to absolutely everything and obviously the question has always been is this just temporary or not the fed is rethinking the policy moving forward as the economy gets better hopefully without extreme variance of this pandemic putting all of us back into lockdown once more so we have those uncertainties that can make all that plan fall however i do think that the market right now is getting used to this pandemic so even if like for example we have seen a spike in cases it doesn't have the same impact as it used to have okay so this is something important to remember anyway the fed so what they're trying to do now obviously on friday we have the very important annual meeting of the fed is trying to get the market used to the idea that maybe this quantitative easing and bond purchase program that is going on since the start of the pandemic it will come to an end at some point in the future now why they are trying to to start to say all of that and warning us is because they learned their lesson in 2013 with this phenomenon called taper tantrum which basically is just the simple fact that in 2013 they came out and said well at some point in the future we are going to stop quantitative easing now bonds investors freaked out they say okay you stop it you reduce the demand the supply is the same so the price of bonds is gonna go down if you are really invested in bonds what happens is that you're gonna lose part of your capital because the price of your bonds is gonna go down so what those investors did taken by fear and panic they started to sell bonds now what was a fear of interest yields going higher became a reality okay the typical self-fulfillment process if you have studied economics like for example i did at university you will know that probably you heard about it when you study monetary policies they tell you that the monetary policy work when you surprise the market okay so you have the maximum effect when you surprise the market when you change a policy and no one is expecting it what the fed in my opinion is doing trying to get the market used to it so that according to economics theory when the market already knows something when the market is already expecting something if you do it it will not have a massive impact because the market already knows all of that so what they're gonna say on friday well we don't know actually i do not expect crazy moves to be honest i think that they're gonna say exactly the same stuff we are thinking about it but we are gonna continue to take a look a new variant and unemployment rates and all that kind of stuff which are still quite high compared to the pandemic period but anyway trying to get the market used to the idea that maybe this purchase program cannot go on forever we see some investors first of all michael berry if we take a look at his recent 13 ads from strong capital what we can see in the latest changes is that one of the most important one is over there actually what barry did he just shorted more so increased his position by 53 percent which right now is 13.5 percent of his portfolios a lot of money and basically shorted the i-share 20-plus year treasury bond etf because he's probably expecting an increase in interest yields over the next few months because of inflation maybe it thinks that is not temporary and the fed has to do something about it obviously if the interest yields goes higher the bonds price goes down so well you buy puts you're actually shorting it that makes sense if you have this particular view another thing that is continuing to do is to short tesla uh increased his position by 34 is a massive position percentage of portfolio 35 percent is very confident about that now what is the reason the reason is that tesla has massive multiples okay and if you increase inflation if you increase interest yields stocks like tesla valued at massive multiples are gonna have a reduction in value okay because they are not very much cash flow positive today they don't make a lot of money today so if you have inflation if interest sales goes higher you know the discounted free cash flow actually you have to increase the discounted free cash flow and if the money that you make are like five years ten years in the future today are gonna be less worthy okay so that's the idea and is going long on high cash flow firms and small multiple firms like for example facebook um is buying calls of google as well and then consumer staples okay which is the part of the market which has grown the less of it since the pandemic so the call options are walmart and so on and so forth now if we take a look at ray dalia's portfolio uh in q2 very interestingly he sold 37 percent of his position on the s p 500 and those money he put those back into consumer staples as well so you see the the same pattern with barry actually this is the same idea of buffett you want to be invested in good brands because no matter what people are gonna still need to buy those things and they don't care if the price is higher by 20 cents 30 cents you still need groceries you still need to eat to drink all that kind of stuff okay so also the s p 500 for like 20 20 plus percent of it is made by stuff like microsoft stuff like apple stuff like amazon we obviously they are amazing businesses but for example microsoft is going through the roof we don't know whether at that price it is still an investment worth doing today the multiples are getting very high so the idea of selling the smp and buy those things it makes you reduce the risk exposed into those tech companies okay highly priced tech and increasing the part of the s p which is uh low p e okay like consumer staples now what do i think about all of that now clearly those two big massive investors are expecting an increase in interest yields and are expecting inflation which is not temporary and they are protecting themselves and this is something interesting to see but in terms of us small investors what can we do now first of all what i like to say is that i don't like fud meaning that i think their fud is not something that makes us take decisions objectively however it's obviously smart to ask ourselves can the stock market continue to go higher forever or can we have a correction like 12 10 corrections are pretty normal in the market so that's the first thing the second thing is that even if the fed decides to reduce the purchase program it's not that they're gonna drop it all together okay like bank of america is forecasting that the fed might think about right now is 80 million in bonds and then 40 million in mbs okay mortgage backed securities bank of america is saying that maybe they're gonna switch to 70 35 okay so it's something that is a reduction is not dropping a policy altogether and then another thing that i would like to say is that by analyzing the markets objectively we don't know first of all if inflation will be temporary or not but one thing that we know by taking a look at for example the amount of debt that the us as a country has is that the fed will very likely prefer a little bit of inflation against a crazy increase in interest yields okay so the main focus will be on avoiding that that inflation will become hyperinflation but in my opinion as long as inflation remains high but not too high the fed well i don't know if whether they're gonna go crazy with interest yields okay first of all we still have lots of uncertainties a variance economies we don't know how long will it take for all of that to come back to normal but if you take a look at the debt that the government has the debt that the us as a country has if the fed increases interest yields all together like crazy they are shooting themselves in the foot they are pushing the country to a high risk of bankruptcy and this is something that i don't see that written many parts in the internet but i think that the fed will be very careful with interest yields okay because when you have a massive amount of debt not all of it is fixed interest debt okay a huge part of it is variable and increasing the interest yields especially in corporation full of debt it means that the bankruptcy rate will increase substantially and also the government will shake as well okay so uh yeah it's not as easy as it seems okay so let's increase interest yields no it's not like that so this is another thing that i think it is important to consider now with that being said how can we protect okay let's say that inflation really goes bad and then they have to do it so what can we do now the first thing that i would like to say is okay value stocks but do not misunderstand value stocks with recovery stocks the first mistake in my opinion is to think that stuff like carnival cruise american airlines and all that kind of stuff are value stocks they are not if you take a look at the balance sheets it's completely okay and and increasing interest yields will push those companies in a very bad place to be when you have all that debt actually it's gonna be very bad if interest yield goes out of control okay because of inflation so that's another thing just okay value stocks but not those huge debt recovery stocks is another thing those are great for speculating if you like but not to be in a safe place in my opinion so what i would like to do what i am doing okay for example i like facebook i think that facebook today continues to be a safer bet also in cases of inflation i think that facebook continues to have massive amounts of cash flow and i think that the stock is not as overvalued as over as all the stuff okay so you can find values plays also in tech obviously if you are planning on jumping on today in high multiples speculative tech stocks well probably you should be a little bit more careful about it what i like to do however is to focus on those couple of companies that i like and no matter what the price is if i get volatility if i get decent entry levels i will continue to accumulate so u.s companies that i like and i will continue to accumulate if the price get cheaper square palantir tesla okay now those three stocks i will not buy more at the current price i told you many times like for example i would like to add more square if it drops below 200 probably if we have some volatilities due to the craziness of the fat fear and all that kind of stuff why not have those kind of companies that you like long term and try to see if you get the right price this is something that i like to do if you want to shift into some more value be careful in my opinion the value is a great balance sheet and a high cash flow not thin margins and huge debt okay like for example recovery stocks and then the last thing that i would like to say even though it makes you look stupid because everyone is saying cash is trash cash is trash blah blah blah in my opinion in periods of uncertainties keeping a percentage of your portfolio in cash is what makes you powerful in case of market drops if you are always 100 invested you don't have any margins in terms of operativity okay the stock drops 10 20 percent you don't know how to buy more okay so in my opinion in cases of uncertainties having a pot of cash aside is something that makes you live better at night and in case prices are getting cheaper you're able to buy more so always keeping a bit of cash in my opinion is something that it makes sense even though probably lots of people will tell you that you're stupid anyway that's my idea guys let me down a comment with what you think subscribe to our channel if you want and as always guys have a wonderful day
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