저자: Raveda · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: JD.com은 현재 약 103달러에서 적정가 181달러 대비 약 43% 저평가, 상승여력 75%로 여전히 매우 저평가돼 있으며 보유를 유지한다는 주장. 회사 개요: JD.com은 중국의 '진짜 아마존'으로, 알리바바(이베이 모델)와 달리 자체 물류·풀필먼트를 수행하는 직접 배송형 모델이다. 물류 분사: JD 로지스틱스를 홍콩 증시에 상장하는 분사(스핀오프) 계획이 발표됐고, JD가 50% 이상 지분을 유지할 예정. 분사는 확장성과 비용 절감에 유리하다고 평가. 기술 투자: 드론 배송(2040년까지 배송의 30% 이상 드론 전망 언급), 자동화 창고(소수 인력+로봇) 등 기술 투자가 장기적으로 긍정적이라고 주장. 밸류에이션: 할인된 잉여현금흐름(DCF) 모델 기준 적정주가 181달러. 할증 가정은 할인율 12%, 영구성장률 3%, 2022~2024년 매출 성장률 22%, 이후 2028년까지 16%. 2020년 순이익률 5%에서 2028년 7.5%로 상승 가정. 실적/지표: 2020년 매출 컨센서스 약 1,105억 달러, 2021년 1,370억 달러 예상. 시가총액 약 1,600억 달러로 주가매출비율(P/S) 약 1.4배. 2019년 첫 순이익 흑자 전환, 2020년 2·3분기 순이익률 각각 8.18%·4.34%. 실적 발표를 수 주 앞둠. 경쟁 구도: 알리바바·핀둬둬와 경쟁하지만 세 회사가 차별화된 시장(JD=품질 제품, 핀둬둬=저가, 알리바바=최대 점유율)에서 공존 가능하다고 판단. 리스크/조건: 명시적 리스크 언급은 제한적이며 경쟁 심화가 우려 요인으로 언급되나 문제될 정도는 아니라고 봄. 본인은 평균 약 80달러에 매수해 보유 중이며 매도 계획 없음. 출연자 전망: 103달러에서도 여전히 저평가, 장기 성장 지속 전망.
다듬은 글
hello everyone it's raveda here and welcome back to learning finance in today's video guys i want to talk about jd.com so i want to give an update on the stock which if you follow my channel you know that i own the stock i bought it back in november uh when i first covered actually the company in with this video over there was the 25th of november and the stock was basically over there around 83 dollars per share 84 then in later videos actually the stock was in the low 80s sometimes even 79 dollars per share and i was buying over there so as of today the company is up more than 20 percent actually today all-time high 103 dollars per share but in today's video i want to show you why in my opinion this is still extremely undervalued and it has as of today a 75 upside potential so i'm gonna show you that the only thing i ask you is please leave me another like it's very important and i thank you for it and subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any new updates let's begin now if you have never heard about jd.com i'm gonna briefly explain you what it is uh basically it's the real amazon of china right because a lot of people usually say that alibaba is the amazon of china while in terms of a business model itself the real amazon of china is jd.com and why because they do the fulfillment process while alibaba alibaba stock can be compared more to an ebay business model when it comes to jd.com it's very similar to amazon so they have these huge logistics and facilities uh where they actually take the items and they do the fulfillment and the delivery right while alibaba you have that the merchants are actually doing the delivery and the fulfillment so in terms of margins uh obviously alibaba is way higher so that jd account can really be compared with amazon with lower margins but probably a higher mode all right in terms of e-commerce because it's not easy to build those facilities in a very short amount of time so that makes jd.com unique then they have the e-commerce which is their core business jd logistics which is basically everything related with the fulfillment process facilities a lot of infrastructure that they built during the years with around 800 warehouses with a total of approximately 20 million square meters of infrastructure so this is huge now i'm going to show you something that basically we have just had the news over there jd.com is basically planning to do a spin-off of jd logistics so uh this business this division of jd is gonna probably go public in the hong kong stocks exchange obviously jd.com so ticker symbol jd will be the main older so we'll continue to have more than 50 percent in terms of ownership now why is that important this is from yesterday this is very important because a spinoff is actually great for a company in terms of scalability and cost reductions and it can make the division itself become way more efficient jd has already done that with jd health which obviously continues to hold in a vast majority of ownership but the thing is that when you do a spin-off you basically have a subsidiary which is able to gather capital alone okay in the market and they're gonna have their own ceos and stuff now the thing is that the main old thing which is jd it continues to have the right on obviously a part a large part of revenues and stuff but when it comes to costs we can say that the logistic will be able to acquire new capital without basically having an impact on the costs of jd.com stock so the main plan is actually to remain focused mostly on the e-commerce than to have these subsidiaries which are actually able to capture capital in order to reduce costs so that the business overall can scale and basically when you have a subsidiary it's even easier for that kind of division to develop in a more efficient way because you're going to have a management which their only objective will be to be focused in that particular business another very important part about jd is the investment that they do in technology jd is the first real business that has done deliveries with drones and they have already done those things now there are articles that they are saying that by 2040 and more than 30 percent of all the deliveries will be made by drones and another very interesting stuff is that there a lot of their warehouses are actually driven by robots so you have huge warehouses and just three or four workers okay real persons everything else is automated with robot and artificial intelligence so also in terms of technology research and development they do a lot of investments and they try to develop and in my opinion this is great for the long term of the company itself and for the quality of the info structure that they are building now when it comes to the valuation actually uh this is from the previous video that i did i updated a little bit with new data that we have today anyway it remains basically the same if you want to see how i did it just go back to see the previous videos where i explain it in details this is a discounts and free cash flow up until basically 28 and i put in 2020 expectations now we are going through earnings basically in just a couple of weeks so uh it's something that we really want to pay attention to analysts are expecting around 110.5 billion dollars in revenue this year and this is crazy because the market cap is just 160 billion okay so uh 1.4 in terms of price to sales ratio so it's very cheap amazon as of now is trading five point something anyway we cannot compare they are not the same stuff amazon and jd but it's just to give you an idea and for 2021 they are expecting 137 billion now an important thing that we have seen in the last years is that jd while they were building the huge logistic infrastructure they were not profitable okay so net income margin you see from 2015 they were negative until 2019 where they first became profitable in terms of net income and we can see that three quarter from 2020 where basically they have done very well especially in q2 uh 8.18 in net income margin so that's a sign of the business which is scaling finally and then 4.34 in q3 so when i try to estimate the new cash flows i actually put over there the net income margin and i have considered that it is going to continue to increase in the next eight nine years obviously i don't expect extreme margins i told you that this is a business similar to amazon which is characterized by low margins anyway from a five percent in 2020 which considering the average of those it's achievable then going on until a 7.50 in 2028 and obviously you have a free cash flow divided by income the ratio so and those are the free cash flows uh for the growth rate those are analysts expectations right for for 2022 going on i consider a 22 growth until 2024 then going down to 16 until 2028.
put all of that in the discounted free cash flow the requirements 12 discount rate per retail growth 3 percent uh basically we have that today the fair price of the stock is 181 dollars per share the stock is now trading at around 103 dollars per share so as of today it's still in my opinion 43.10 percent undervalued with an upside potential to fair price of 75.75 so it's extremely undervalued it's in my opinion it's a great business it will continue to grow and even though it's you know alibaba competitors you have basically alibaba pinduo duo and jd even though it looks like they are fighting each other in my opinion all of them can coexist why because the chinese market is so huge it will continue to grow in the next 10 years and those three companies they actually do three different stuff so they're not actually competing exactly but they are doing different stuff for example jd is where you buy quality items pin duo duo is more where you buy a little stuff okay things that do not cost as much and pin dodo is having a lot of success because he's actually able to sell very cheap items no brands and is able to reach that part of the population which is not rich right it's not let's say they don't have much money to spend in brand items while jd.com for example if you want to buy an iphone in china it's very likely that they're gonna buy it from jd.com while alibaba on the other side they have the biggest chunk in the market but overall in my opinion those three big e-commerce uh they can coexist so i don't think that competition is a problem and i think that jd.com even at 100 is still very undervalued so if you have seen my previous videos you know that i bought the stock with an average price of around eighty dollars per share anyway i'm still holding and i'm not planning to sell anything i hope you find this video interesting guys and leave me a comment below tell me what do you think about jd.com subscribe to the channel and as always guys have a wonderful day
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