저자: Davide · 외국인
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결론: 현재 증시 조정은 인플레이션 우려와 금리 상승에 따른 고평가 조정이며, 본격적 폭락이라기보다 건강한 가격 정상화 과정이라는 시각. 시장 하락 배경: 나스닥 고점(2/16) 이후 약 -7% 조정. 인플레이션 공포가 핵심 동인이며, 코로나 종식 후 경제 재개와 소비 회복으로 물가가 오를 수 있다는 우려가 현실화되는 중. 금리 분석: 미국 10년물 금리가 장기 하락추세(1982년 이후)의 바닥(2020년 3월 0.35%)을 찍은 뒤, 11~1월 박스권을 돌파(1/5)하며 1%를 넘었고 다시 상승 중. 채권 매도가 금리를 밀어올리는 구조. 밸류에이션 메커니즘: 할인율(WACC의 무위험수익률=국채금리)이 오르면 기업가치(공정주가)가 크게 낮아짐. 예시 모델에서 할인율 8.5%→12%로 올리면 공정가치 약 127→80달러로 급락. 무위험자산 매력 상승으로 주식 대비 자금 이동 가능성도 언급. 인플레이션 요인: 미국 M2 통화량뿐 아니라 화폐 유통속도(velocity) 급증이 중요하다고 강조. 마이클 배리의 인플레이션 경고 트윗 이후 시장 급락이 있었다고 언급. 개별 기업 리스크: 고평가 종목(예: 팔란티어)은 기대치가 너무 높아 실적이 조금만 미달해도 주가가 크게 빠질 수 있음. 팔란티어는 과거 가격대(약 16~17달러 수준)까지 하락 가능성 언급. 좋은 사업이라도 가격이 높으면 위험하다는 논지. 투자 관점: 조정은 포트폴리오에 손실을 주지만 전 종목 고점권에서는 기회가 적으므로, 실제 이익을 내는 우량 기업 중심 보유를 권장. 적자 기업(실체 없는 성장 약속)은 공정가치가 훨씬 낮을 수 있어 금리 상승 시 가장 큰 타격을 받는다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 금리 상승이 지속되면 고밸류 성장주의 밸류에이션이 재조정될 것이며, 현재 변동성은 이 리스크 때문이라고 진단.
다듬은 글
hello everyone it's davide here and welcome back to learning finance so in today's video guys i want to talk about the current market situation because it looks like that we are having a crash it has started basically the 16th of february with the top of the nasdaq and so it is a pullback right now the question is is this the beginning of a stock market crash so a major correction because as of now we are around how much is it minus 7.18 percent so still consider a pullback but can these become ugly and why it is the market crashing so here's what i'm gonna talk today the only thing i ask you is please leave me another like it's very important and i thank you for it and subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any new updates let's begin now to answer the first question why is the market crashing now in my opinion but not just my opinion basically the fear of inflation and we have seen in the previous videos if you don't remember i talked to you about basically this idea that when the virus will finally go away the economy will reopen it can be possible to see inflation going higher as people move away from home and start to buy back stuff obviously the market anticipates those moves and in this case that fear is kind of becoming a little bit of reality okay we are starting to see an effect a little effect about it and where is this effect the main thing that we have seen basically which is driving the market in his pullback is this now this is the interest yield of the 10 years treasury bonds which as i showed you in the previous video when we take a look at a longer time frame and we realize how um let me put monthly how obviously the trend is negative right and we have seen a negative trend since basically 1982 so 40 years we hit the bottom here in the middle of the pandemic in march where the yield was 0.35 since then when we zoom out in the daily basis we see how uh with the bottom over there then we had a period of consolidation then we formed a high and then went back and then here look at that we basically stayed over there in this period of consolidation for a couple of months basically from november until january and then here we had the breakout the breakout which has happened in january the fifth and the interest yield went above one right and now it is climbing up again with this fear basically of inflation this is mainly because a lot of people are exiting actually the bond so that overall pushes the interest yield higher and the thing is that why is this relevant and why this has an impact on the stock market as an overall now to understand this we go to excel and i actually show you one of my analysis right this is was from apple if you remember the video if you follow my channel you know that i tend to do analysis with real numbers because i think that they can explain the things better most of the times right instead of just talking about the things when we do evaluation when you value a business you all the times you have in mind a rate of return right to discount back basically if you're wondering how these people working in banks and stuff they value businesses that they try to forecast future and discount these things back to present it's all about the interest yield the discount rate now the interest yield the 10 years treasury bond t bill why is important because 99 of analysts consider that as a risk-free yield as long as that remains very low obviously uh the overall rate of return when for example let's put apple this rate of return which i am considering usually it is called the walk weighted average cost of capital inside this weighted average cost of capital there is also the risk free rate which is better known as the t bill rate right basically 99 of analysts which cover us stocks they have in mind that particular rate now clearly if that rate is very low overall also the the total rate of return will be lower right obviously will be higher than the t bill because we are considering equity which is riskier you have the cost of equity involved all this kind of stuff the risk of the firm itself so it's not risk-free but overall what happens if you push the t bill higher is that this rate will go higher right so the overall discount rate will go higher that's fair enough so if you understand this why if the interest yield goes higher we have an effect in the stock market well that's pretty simple now let's take a look at this valuation right it was the blue case 17 11 growth rate forecasted anyway just look at the fair price right we have 127.65 now keep all of that the same and let's just change the discount rate right the rate of return so let's say if the t bills goes to 4 right a very higher than how it is now but just to make you understand what's the impact and why the market is freaking out this is what happened instead of 8.5 let's assume 12.
look at the fair value right now instead of 126 is 80. now this is a drastic change right so what happens is that when you have the t bill going higher the market freaks out because they start to think that if this rate it won't stop right and it will continue uh to go higher and higher then according to that the t bill will be more interesting to be invested in because if the rates goes higher you have a risk free rate which is higher and then people will consider again investing in riskier assets which are stocks right so let's just imagine if you have a t bill for example at a five percent basically what happens is that if you want to invest in stocks you want to consider a way higher rate than 8.5 okay because otherwise you just say well you know what i don't want to risk that much let me just put aside in the t-bill because it's risk-free right that's how basically the very basics on why the interest yield going higher it has this kind of effect now we have seen during these days with tweets from basically michael berry he became famous for the big short and basically what he said he want about uh an upcoming inflationary wave i don't know whether this is magic or not but basically since when he put this tweet the market started to crash and as i told you in the previous video also from the jp morgan article the outlook in 2021 we were prepared to the fact that the inflation could go higher by reopening the economy obviously all that stimulus doesn't help especially if they continue to do this kind of stuff anyway remember that is not just about the quantity of money it's not just m2 you need to have and a huge increase also in the velocity of money so how many times a dollar is involved the same dollars is involved in transactions if you see the velocity of money as the economy reopens spiking up then yeah inflation fear can become a reality and not just a fear anymore however as always the markets they anticipate this kind of stuff today we had a spike in the interest yield which it touched above the 10 percent growth in a single day touching above 1.50 obviously this has an impact on stocks if you follow my channel you know that in the previous valuations and that i did i told you many times about being careful with the present prices i told you for example if you look at the valuation of pinterest which is a company that i own i told you how all those stocks at these prices were priced for perfection now when you have these kind of prices it doesn't mean that the business is bad it means that the price is too high that people are expecting very high results and so it's likely that those results are going to be missed one example we have seen in wii square yesterday the stock went down after earnings because the price was very high and earnings were not that bad let's say but they were not good they were not outstanding as the expectations were expecting so the reality is that the stock went down and if you put combination because together with huge expectations we have that the company can miss the earnings right because expectations are simply too high and when a stock price goes higher and higher and higher it becomes riskier and riskier and riskier it doesn't matter whether the business is good okay it can be also the perfect business but if the price is too high it's riskier right that that's simple mathematics and together with this we have that if the interest yields continues to go higher in the next couple of months the valuation of these businesses will be revisited meaning that a lot of analysts and a lot of fund managers they will apply a different discount rate to those valuations and that will push their idea of fair prices even lower right so that's the risk that's why the market is volatile at the moment and there is fear right and we are starting to see this pullback now for example when we talk about palantir uh this is another stock that i've covered and i told you look the market is expecting right now extremely prices right i told you about the dream scenario which was this one but then going down i told you also if you want to see something more realistic then you have to watch us by area and from 1920 right it could go lower up until 16 17 and that is basically what i meant by that the business is great but the market was just giving it a price which was enthusiastic priced for perfection and when we had this kind of stuff which let's say they break the equilibrium of this perfection then you have volatility and you have these kind of stocks which are priced very high which are likely to calm down in my opinion it's not a crash in my opinion it's a coming back to a more natural and healthy level in the stock market which i know it is bad because you see red in your portfolio but can actually create opportunity because when all the stocks are a whole time high it's very difficult to find opportunities and as always i like to remain as a big part of my portfolio involved in quality business sometimes i get comments what are quality businesses my opinion quality businesses are the ones that makes money the ones that at the end of the year they put money in the table because when a business is profitable for real is efficient it's scaling well it's very difficult to actually discuss the fair price of it right while if a business is just promises by actually loses money you don't have a real product then the fair price could be way lower than when the stock is now especially moments of enthusiasm and then when you have an event for example this yield that is going higher well these kind of stocks are the one that they get hit the most where it's more likely to lose money so i hope that you find this video interesting and leave me a like leave me a comment below tell me are you buying some stocks or not subscribe to the channel and as always guys have a wonderful day
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