저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 베라이즌의 AOL·야후 매각(Apollo에 50억 달러)은 베라이즌 실적에 큰 영향이 없는 거래이며, 종목 투자 판단의 직접 근거로 보기 어렵다. 거래 개요: 베라이즌이 AOL과 야후(구 Oath, 현 Verizon Media)를 Apollo에 약 50억 달러에 매각하는 거래로, 현금 42.5억 달러, 우선주 7.5억 달러, 베라이즌이 10% 지분을 보유하며 회사명은 Yahoo로 바뀐다. 밸류에이션: 거래 배수는 중간 한 자릿수(mid single digits)로 보이며, 일부 자산 매각이 포함된 구조화 거래라 정확한 EBITDA 배수는 불명확하다. 매각 배경: 야후 매각은 이미 예상되던 일이었고, 베라이즌 CEO 한스 베스트베르그는 3월 11일 인터뷰에서 매각 가능성을 부인하지 않았다. 진행자는 매각 자체는 놀랍지 않다고 평가했다. 과거 비교: 1999년 워버그 딜런 리드 리포트를 인용해 당시 야후가 매출 추정치의 150배에 거래된 점을 언급하며 과거 버블 수준을 설명했다. 마크 큐반이 방송에서 야후 주식을 매도해 50억 달러를 확보한 사례도 교훈으로 언급했다. 인재와 전망: 야후에 재능 있는 인력이 많았으나 수익화에 성공하지 못했다는 질문이 있었고, 진행자는 정확한 답을 내지 못했다. Apollo는 애드테크, 스포츠 베팅, 핀테크 혁신을 노리는 스마트 바이어로 평가되며, 향후 EBITDA를 끌어올리면 좋은 딜이 될 수 있고 나중에 공개시장 재상장 가능성도 언급됐다. 리스크: 거래 배수와 EBITDA 세부 수치가 공개되지 않아 밸류에이션 판단이 어렵다.
다듬은 글
welcome back verizon making a deal this morning with apollo to sell uh it's uh well it used to be called oath but basically what it calls now verizon media uh for five billion dollars we're talking aol and yahoo those are the best-known names of course that are part of it you can see what verizon shares are doing after the lackluster earnings a couple weeks back but i mean this is not going to move the needle jim verizon will retain a 10 stake in the company it will be known as yahoo at the close of the transaction and again apollo is the buyer here trying to you know get a sense from the participants as to what the multiple is right that's always interesting what multiple divide are they paying i'm hearing mid single digits but there are some assumed asset sales in there as well so it's a highly structured transaction um and that's about all i got in terms of really getting a sense so let's call it mid single digits um not a big surprise that this was for sale uh in fact uh i had heard it was for sale and asked ceo hans vestberg about that very fact back on march 11.
take a listen your media assets uh yahoo of course being one of them um but i do hear if you were able to find a buyer for them you would you would sell them is that true first of all these guys and verizon media group has done a fantastic job i mean we changed the whole business model and the business plan as we started in 2018.
they have changed all the products taken out cost and we're starting to grow and the fourth quarter showed what to have so i think i'm very pleased with that asset and how the guys have been executing so we are supporting them they are part of the family and they're very important part of it all right it wasn't a no though no uh and you know what i i knew they were for sale but the only question was would they find an actual buyer uh and they did 4.25 billion in cash is what verizon will get preferred interest of 750 million and that 10 stake that they will retain in the company jim i went back to my old files too just to try and remember as a point of education for people today right because remember of course at one point yahoo was worth over a hundred billion dollars aol bought time warner um and by the way there was a write down already taken by verizon they paid about let's call it eight and a half billion total for these two assets they took a four billion dollar write down what was it a couple of you a few years ago already three years ago uh on the assets themselves but i went back and found a research report from january of 1999.
can't really make it out here i mean it even looks old from the type on it just to give you a feel for what was going on back then on yahoo this was an analyst that warburg dillon reed yahoo's trading in 150 times our 99 uh revenue estimate uh it's trading at 107 times our 2000 revenue estimate absurd absolutely but it was absurd 100 points ago and 200 points ago so we will not be stupid and change the rating if we get a good number and a stock split it's off to the races again and that just shows you as an example of things were then right and 20 plus years later where they are now in terms of value no extraordinary loss of value and i think the lesson there was that mark cuban told you to sell it when he did the when he did the broadcast took the 5 billion and that's what made him a billionaire in yahoo stock back in the late 90s and then collared it i think pretty quickly and then invested very very well yeah but david one of the things that you and i both know there are some very talented people there what happened that the talented people could not make a go of it or at least enough of it for verizon or were they making a lot of money i don't know i don't know that they were making a lot of money i'd love to know the actual dollar amount that that multiple is based on for ebitda because that would give us a better sense jim i i don't have a great answer for you but the mayor is a smart buyer yeah the aspire's a smart buyer they're thinking about ad tech they're thinking about um they're thinking you know about sports betting they're thinking about continued innovation as well in financial uh financial technology so we'll see if they're able to grab a hold of any of that jim to actually create a much higher level of ebitda eventually that makes it a good deal and of course don't forget it will come back to the public markets at some point that's the way you draw it up right exactly right
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