저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
제목/방송: ET Now 'Jim Rogers 단독 인터뷰'(2023-02-14). 결론: 경기침체 공포가 크지만 모두가 아는 악재는 잘 안 일어나므로 단기적으로 시장이 예상보다 더 오를 수 있다는 입장. [시장 전망] - 침체 공포가 만연하나 모두가 아는 사건은 흔히 빗나간다며 단기 상승 가능성 언급. 다만 수개월 내 나쁜 시기가 올 것이라고 봄. - 본인은 최근 아무것도 사지 않았고 과거 비관론에 휩쓸려 대응을 못한 것을 후회. [금·은] - 본인은 금과 은을 보유 중(추가 매수는 없음). 금은 인플레이션 헤지로 알려졌으나 최근 3년간 부진했다고 지적. 은이 금보다 역사적으로 훨씬 싸다고 언급하며 은을 선호. [달러·채권·금리] - 미국 달러를 보유, 전란·혼란 시 안전자산으로 몰려 달러가 더 오를 것으로 전망. - 채권은 매수하지 않음. 향후 몇 년간 금리가 더 오를 것으로 봄(1980년 단기국채 21% 사례 언급). [지정학·원자재] - 러시아-우크라이나 휴전 시 주식·채권 상승, 원유·곡물 하락 예상. 그때 곡물과 원자재를 매수할 계획. - 중국 경제 재개방 시 여행·관광 산업 수혜, 원자재·금속 수요 증가와 인플레이션 유발 전망. [분산투자] - 분산투자에 부정적. 집중투자가 부의 조건이라 주장. 일본·중국 시장이 역사적 고점 대비 아직 낮아 투자 매력 언급, 인도도 강세였다고 평가. [리스크] - 인플레이션 재가속 시 금리 추가 상승 가능성, 전쟁 지속 시 원자재 가격 상승 리스크. [출연자 전망 요약] 달러 강세, 금리 상승, 은·원자재 선호, 일본·중국 관심.
다듬은 글
it gives me a great pleasure now to bring on board uh Jim Rogers to talk about what he makes of the market right now and there you go you can see him uh live on television all getting ready good morning sir how youve been good morning I'm fine thank you very much Happy New Year so what's keeping you busy this year uh so far not much I'm basically watching what what I am watching mainly is there's so many people who are pessimistic and so many people who recession when everybody knows something's going to happen it usually does not happen so I'm trying to figure out the best way to play that I suspect the markets including India including America will go up more than we expect for a while because everybody thinks everybody knows the recession is here maybe it's not okay uh so now you've told us what you're watching tell us what you are buying and what you selling well I'm not buying anything as a matter of fact you know I too was Swept Away with like everybody else expecting bad times to come this year I know bad times will come sometime in the next few weeks months uh so I basically did nothing for a while and now I'm sitting here saying I regret it I mean I own Commodities as you know uh I own gold and silver I Haven a bought any but I own it but I'm watching you know I I made the same mistake that a lot of people made uh a very basic question on uh gold gold is supposed to be a hedge against inflation gold is supposed to outperform because if inflation goes higher it protects your purchasing power but the conundrum is that gold in last three years has done precious little why is gold not keeping up to its reputation of being an inflation head suddenly well I know that what is supposed to happen is another one of those cases of what everybody know knows doesn't happen uh yes gold has often been a inflation hedge but many times as you know I'm sure you watch ET now many times gold has done badly no matter what's going on in the world so I me I wish life were so simple okay so that's a coming in I'm guessing that perhaps people must be buying more gold when it comes to the Valentine's Day gift as well Ain Valentine Day GI Anisha that's a new one for me I've heard people buying roses on Valentine Day you actually the game just no you got gold on Valentine Days Anisha I'm just curious that's the first one I've heard that perhaps it's not a diamond gold this time let's see what I really get but Jim if you had to buy something what would that be well if I had to buy something I'd buy silver silver is much cheaper than gold on a historic basis but I did send my wife flowers today and my daughter's flowers so I bought flowers and maybe some Sil Sil here's some silver in my pocket in your pocket so you have it handy and that's a that's a sweet gesture Jim but uh clearly not seeing any love I know you were talking about all that pessimism and you know perhaps back home as well we're discussing uh a lot of factors like inflation maybe not recession back home but what is it that you're expecting is going to be the next big uh trigger in terms of uh you know what is going to be that asset class really that is likely to outperform down the line what do you believe one should do when it comes to diversification in their portfolio well if I I would say probably Japan probably uh China right now because both of those markets are still down from their historic highs um maybe India I mean India's been a strong market for years as you know you've done a very good somebody's done a very good job in India but I would suspect Japan or China would be a better place to diversify d ification is the name of the game but Jim what about uh the dollar of course from that 115 level we had seen the dollar Index reverse quite a bit but it's been quite sticky around that 103 Zone uh do you see a bit of a correction here or is it likely to head higher well first of all no diversification is not something I am keen on diversification is something that Brokers thought up so that they don't get sued if you want to be successful you don't diversify you focus you focus you focus you have to be right if you're wrong wrong you're going to go broke but if you want to be rich you have to focus narrowly in the right things uh so please I I know everybody talks about diversification but I'm not going to talk about diversification as far as the dollar I own US dollars I expect the dollars to go higher before this is over because when we have turmoil again everybody's going to look for a safe haven and they think the US dollar is a safe haven it's not it's not but everybody thinks it is so I own a lot of US dollar still Jim now whether it is recession or uh peak of inflation some would argue that interest rates globally are nearing its peak at least in the inter is it a good time to park cash back to bonds well cash it depends on which cash first of all um you own the wrong currency you're going to get ruined uh I am not buying bonds I expect interest rates to go higher over the next few years I mean you're not you don't remember but in 1980 when we had the last inflation interest rates on short-term treasury bills in the United States were 21% that's not a typo short-term treasury bills were 21% it's going to take a lot to kill inflation this time because inflation is worse now not this month not this week but before before this is over interest rates will go much much higher Jim the Joker in the pack is that Ukraine and Russia are still at a war now there are two assumptions here if they continue to remain at War what impact it will have on inflation in Commodities and in next 6 months if there is a ceasefire how will that impact commodity prices and underlying demand very good point uh if I I I don't know why this were keeps going I don't know who's getting anything out of it neither Russia nor America nor Ukraine but if it ends or if there's a ceasefire everything is going to react stocks are going to go up a lot bonds will go up a lot and oil will go down grain will go down but if I were what I plan to do if that happens is to buy Grain and to buy Commodities because that will be a buying opportunity you always argued that Chinese markets and the Chinese economy they have lot of inertia going for itself but last two years if you examine the Chinese stock market the Chinese administrative policy uh the Chinese uh uh Capital Market real estate sector one is getting a sense that China is speaking out to its uh growth what implications do you think that will have on global growth per say well I I get the impression just from reading the press and from ET now and things like like that that China is it has been very restrictive internally for a while but it seems to me that something is changing and that China is now trying to be more open to the outside world if that happens it's certainly going to affect the Chinese economy but it's going to affect the worldwide economy I mean there's been very little travel in China or out of China for two or three years the travel industry tourism everywhere is going to prosper if they really are open again is my view that they are opening up more than they were before comes back in full bloom this year do you think it will have serious implications on demand and commodity prices wait I'm sorry what now if China comes back in full bloom if the restrictions are lifted if co normalizes uh is the reason to believe that it could read it could lead to Serious price inflation especially in metals and Commodities well it will add to inflation because whenever there's more demand for something prices go up and if prices go up that's called inflation and certainly will affect Metals it will affect food it'll affect everything I mean China's a gigantic it's the second largest economy in the world as you know Jim apart from uh drinking water in a silver cup and stocking silver and gold in your pocket what else would you recommend our viewers would do for people were looking at investing and creating wealth uh in the medium to long term I learned silver from India by the way the Indians have staggering amounts of in of silver as you well know and gold I think India is probably the most important factor in the silver and gold markets anywhere in the world so this is something else I I learned from you and I do drink out of a silver goblet it was my mother's goblet or what that's worth I'm sorry I forgot your question I got so carried away with silver okay Jim I remember we had a conversation and you said that for me it's very simple I would like to eat rice because I'm bullish on Commodities I would like to buy rice and eat it with silver Chopsticks in a in a silver uh un know cup so to speak has that habit changed Jim well I still own my silver Chopsticks by the way again I learned about Silver from India when I first went to India I found silver silver and gold everywhere and I learned a lot from India about many things but especially silver and gold no none of that is changed I am still optimistic because I know that once we have the big rally inflation is coming back and when inflation comes if you own the things that go higher in price you make money I don't like inflation nobody likes inflation but politicians are not very smart right Jim it's been a pleasure interacting with you lots of uh interesting pears of wisdom that we've got dollar Index will go higher and LS largely on the back of its perception as a safe haven but he believes that staying focused is more important than diversification would by grain Commodities not buying bonds and of course that view on silver and gold continues as he uh Jim says he continues to own Commodities okay let's just quick
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