저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세 등 지정학·무역 불확실성 속에서 금은 포트폴리오 헤지 수단으로 유지할 가치가 있고, 중앙은행 매수와 달러 회피 흐름이 금 상승을 지지한다고 주장. 연말 4,000달러, 내년 5,000달러까지 갈 수 있다고 전망하며 급등 후 조정은 기회로 봄. 미국 주식은 상승 동력이 약해 횡보·변동성 장세로 보며, 채권 금리는 4.25~4.5% 수준에서 안착하는 모습. 관세 협상은 7월 1일경 정치적 합의 선언으로 마무리될 가능성이 크고, 인도는 인구구조와 성장 잠재력 때문에 중국보다 유망하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Ed Yardini is with us, president Yardini Research. Ed, good morning. Great to have you with us here. Thank you very much for your time. You know, uh, Ed, I just want to start with something we don't talk about very often, which is gold. A best start to gold since n in since the 1970, 7% since the tariff pause.
While that's great news, but gold typically goes up in times of uncertainty. So, if gold is doing so well, can everything else do well as well? The answer is probably no. I think gold has to be in a portfolio as an offset to all the uh turbulence and uncertainties we have impacting all the other markets the financial markets.
Certainly stocks and bonds have been volatile and as a result of that I think owning some gold maybe a lot of gold to offset that volatility is an important thing to uh to have in one's portfolio. U okay so I mean this kind of sharp sharp move not not exactly a great thing right I mean in terms of just if you're trying to gauge what kind of sentiment is it depends if if you own it it's fine we we've been we we've been recommending positioning in gold since it crossed above 200 last year and uh just looking at it uh at kind of the channel that that it's in uh it could get to uh 4,000 by the end of this year.
And if it gets to 4,000 by the end of this year, I'd say the momentum could carry it up to 5,000 next year. And uh that's just uh a bet that uh if Trump is going to upend the old world order and now what we have right now is the new world disorder, nobody really knows how this will all play out. that could be a protracted period of uncertainty that's been unleashed by Trump's tariffs.
So, I think gold continues to do well. I I do believe that there's going to be some resolution of this tariff issue uh by July 1st. Remember, on April 9th, the president postponed the reciprocal tariffs until July 1st. I think there's going to be some good news along the way and that should help the stock market, but I think gold will do well because central banks continue to buy it.
Uh, you know, Ed, I was talking with somebody on Friday and we were just chatting about what's going on. He said, well, you know, the failure it's the the inability to make money in the market is now just a failure of failure of imagination. a lack of imagination because uh who knows imagination it's always good to have imagination but uh look it's no I let me so let me my question is this I this entire question of what happens uh you know Trump constantly threatening to fire I mean not threatening to fire says well he'll be gone if I want him gone uh now if something like that were to come to a bit of a head what happens I what's the thing to do gold so the conversation was in that in in that context so I just wanted your thoughts Well, look, right now we have a trade war.
Uh that trade war could turn into a currency war and in addition to that, we have the potential for actual wars. There's there is a war going on between Russia and Ukraine. Uh the Middle East situation remains on the boil. It's conceivable that we'll still be there still will be a military choice made by the United States and Israel to neutralize the nuclear facilities of Iran.
And of course uh China and Taiwan is a major issue. Uh you know you know before the election uh Trump was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal about how he would deal with Taiwan and he said he wouldn't do it militarily. he would just slap a huge tariff on China if they tried to invade Taiwan. Well, the problem is he's already played that card.
He's he's already imposed a huge tariff on China. So, China now from a geopolitical perspective say, well, what else could that he could do? What else could he do to hurt us? Let's go and uh instead of practicing a blockade of Taiwan, let's implement it. Right? You know purely out of curiosity how much of gold's outperformance would you attribute to its own outperformance in the sense that a lot of people are buying gold because it's doing well or how many of them are buying because of the uncertainty in the world.
Tra is worried about the financialization of gold so to say you know they they've started looking at it more as a positioning than any sort of protection from the uncertainty that we're seeing. So I want your thoughts on that and you know while everyone's moving towards gold are there opportunities in any equity markets in the US or the world?
Well I I I I think what you mentioned before that sometimes uh investing could could be just simply running out of imagination. Uh there's uh doesn't seem to be any rush to be loading up on stocks here at least in the United States. Uh it looks like uh we're going to continue to kind of churn here, maybe very be very choppy to the to the sideways.
Bond market looks like it's despite this volatility looks like it's settling in around 4 and a.5%. Uh and uh meanwhile, as you said, gold is a hedge against all sorts of things like inflation, like political uncertainty, like global chaos and uh we have all those things in place right now that continue to favor gold.
uh clearly it could kind of feed on itself and uh you know it's interesting that recently it's gone up faster almost at a par parabolic uh pace and that's usually an indication that it's it's due for some sort of correction because somebody's getting in at the top at least on a short-term basis but I don't think this is a top I think uh if there is a correction it'll be an opportunity I think there's a potential for gold to go higher again simply because there's a lot of central banks of countries that don't like the United States, don't get along with the United States, they really just don't want to have dollars in their reserves.
So, they're they're going for gold, they're going for euro right now. Uh Ed, um we're at the mercy of all the trade negotiations. Last week, it was Japan holding high level trade talks with the US. This week it's South Korea, uh you know, with um you know, visiting the US with trade negotiations in Washington in the emerging market basket.
uh what is the approach now and where does India feature? Well, I think India is right at the top of the the list of countries that the United States wants to have a deal with. The thing is it usually takes u a year or two years to negotiate trade treaties. There's so much involved. I think in this case the administration would just like to have a piece of paper that's signed uh by by various countries uh agreeing in principle to to certain things like reducing their tariffs like reducing their non-tariff barriers to trade and I think I think they'll get the United States will get that uh I think the president is going to declare victory by July 1st and with regards to India I think that'll be thea the case as well I think what's happen very helpful for India Certainly in the stock market is a realization that unlike China, India has a a much greater potential for growth domestically and whereas China's got uh the demographic issue is a negative in India the demographic issue is a very big positive and this despite the valuations at which India trades at right now well look um there's a lot of money in the global system that would like to be invested u not everybody wants to be putting it into gold.
Not everybody wants to be putting it into treasury bills. And meanwhile, uh, US stocks uh are still relatively expensive and volatile. Bond markets become somewhat more unpredictable. The whole concept of US assets as a safe haven is being challenged right here. So yeah, I think global investors are willing to pay up for India because they perceive that India is maybe a uh more uh has a more stable economic outlook and uh a more positive economic outlook than maybe many other countries around the world.
U you know that point that you said right he just wants to declare victory but and and uh the he's put tariffs so high that he's got so many ways he can declare victory right he can declare victory at I mean if the tariff is 150 he can declare victory at 125 100 95 doesn't really matter it doesn't matter he can he can do it uh absolutely so in a way uh you know someone we were speaking with I think two weeks back said maybe I mean the it's hard assets and ems and in EM India is right at the top in that sense.
Make sense? Uh Ed, yeah. Um I I I think uh there's a lot of things that don't make sense right now. Uh and uh I I think the the whole tariff issue uh we're all confused about because we really don't know what the administration's endgame is. It's not even clear that the administration has an endgame.
Uh so in this kind of environment where people are looking for some certainty for a while there it looked like they were jumping out of US assets and going into China and into Europe. Uh now I think there's a realization that well wait a second these are the areas where the trade war is most intense and less intense is probably going to be the trade war between the United States and various emerging economies uh especially India.
All right. Uh Ed, very good conversation and very good primer as to start the week with. Thank you very much for joining us and uh running us through uh your views and your perspective.
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