Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 3/30/25

요약 보기

지난주 경제지표 혼조(실업수당청구·주택판매 호조, PCE 근원물가 상회). 이번 주 고용 관련 지표(JOLTS, ADP, 실업률·임금) 일정 소개. 연준은 물가 둔화 지연 시 금리 인하 유지 가능성, 고용 약화 시 추가 인하 검토 가능. SPY는 3월 13일 저점 수준 지지선 관리가 중요하다고 언급. 개인 포트폴리오는 현금 5.22%, 보유 종목 손익 혼조, 낙관적 회복 기대로 보유 유지 계획.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today is Sunday, March 30at happened since the last update, it was definitely a mixed bag. On Thursday, the initial jobless claims and pending home sales both came in better than expected. The initial jobless claims was only a slight beep, but the pending home sales was a full percentage point above what the street was expecting.

02. Even if it's not by much, it's definitely always a positive thing to get good readings from these economic data points. Unfortunately, on Friday, the personal consumer expenditures index did come in a little higher than anticipated. The PCE month over month and year-over-year did come in at expectations at.3 and 2.5.

03. But the core PCE which strips out food and utilities did increase 4% versus the expected.3 which put the core PCE year-over-year at 2.8 versus the expected 2.7. And that could have definitely contributed to some of the market losses that we saw on Friday. For the events this week, the theme's definitely going to be the economy and the jobs market.

04. On Tuesday, we're going to see the job openings. On Wednesday, we're going to get the ADP employment report. Thursday is going to have the initial jobless claims. And then Friday, we're going to finish it off with the employment, the unemployment, and also the hourly wages report. Depending on what your desired view for the Fed rate cuts this year dictates what you're going to be looking for in these numbers, I would say that by the end of the week, if everything overall looks good, that's not going to encourage Jerome Powell to end up cutting the federal funds rate any more than already anticipated.

05. He did say that if inflation's not coming down, which currently it's not, but the economy remains strong, then they have the ability to maintain policy for longer, which would essentially mean no more additional rate cuts than what's already expected. But he did say that if the labor market ends up weakening, then they would explore the possibility of additional rate cuts.

06. So pretty much, if you're going to want the Fed to be more aggressive in their rate cuts, you want most of these numbers to come in bad. But in turn, that would mean that the economy is not doing as well as it was before. But of course, if you want the economy to be doing well, then you're going to want these numbers to come in better than expected.

07. But that in turn could mean that we don't get as many rate cuts. I would personally like to see these numbers come in better than expected, even if that means that we're only going to still get the two rate cuts that Powell's talking about. If we take a look at what the spy chart looked like on the previous update, the spy price had just crossed above the 15-day moving average and the 5day was just about to cross the 15-day as well.

08. And if we take a look at what happened on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, you'll see that the markets continued their selloff. And the positioning of the SPY, the 5-day, and the 15 is back to where it was during the worst of the sell-off, which is the 15-day on top, the 5day in the middle, and the SPY price on the bottom from the sell-off low on March 13th.

09. There's still a 78% drop to get there from where we are right now. So, it's going to be pretty important not to cross below that level cuz if we do, then that signals that there's additional bare sentiment still in the markets. If we zoom out about 9 months, you'll see that this support level is the one that I was just referencing.

10. If we do end up crossing below that, it is quite a bit of a drop before we get to the next support level, which is signaled by these two significant touch points. The first one being last September and the second one being last July. From where we are right now, it would be a 2.85% drop to fully reach the bottom, which is why it's going to be so important for the markets to try to create higher lows this week and not cross below this first support level.

11. , Costco, and PayPal make out my top five, and those are going to make up 53.9% of my portfolio. A lot of my positions did fall farther into the red this week. Meta went from being positive, to now having a 4.94% loss. Nvidia, my second biggest position, has an 18.05% loss. PayPal, which I'm probably the most surprised about, is at a 21.08% loss.

12. Two positions that are doing well right now is going to be Welltow Tower, which has a 19.38% gain, and then Spotify, which has a 16.72% gain. I do think that the markets are going to recover, so I do continue planning on holding these positions. Right now, I have 94.78% of my portfolio invested, which means I have 5.22 sitting in cash.

13. Since Wednesday, Persian Square had a loss of 2.83%, my portfolio had a loss of 6.14, and the S&P 500 saw a loss of 3.4, 4, which brings us year-to date. Persian Square has a gain of 1.23. My portfolio is at a loss of 4.32, and the S&P 500 is at a loss of 4.9.