Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 7/15/25

요약 보기

Dave 포지션을 25% 축소했다. Dave는 5월 8일 실적 발표 후 급등했으나 7월 3일 고점 대비 약 28.67% 하락했고, 지지선 부근이다. 15일선 하향 이탈 시 추가 하락 가능성이 있어 해당 시점에 축소했다. SPY는 저항선 근처에서 두 차례 막혔고 5일선 아래에 있으나 15일선 유지가 중요하다고 본다. 현재 포트폴리오 투자 비중은 약 69.63%다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today is Tuesday, July 15 take a look at the chart next, but since my last update, the only position change that I made was I trimmed my Dave position by 25%. If we look at the chart for Dave, you'll see that ever since they reported their earnings on May 8th, it's been on an absolute tear. And from when they reported their earnings, so the most recent peak, it had a gain of 161.88%.

02. But since that peak, it has seen a pretty rapid sell-off. And right now, it's down 28.67% from that peak that it saw on July 3rd. The level that it closed at today is pretty significant because it's also the same level that it's closed at two previous times. And to show that a little bit better, I'm going to throw in the support level line.

03. And you'll see that the two previous times that it's touched that support level line, it has moved higher. So, it's definitely going to be worth keeping an eye on to see if that trend can continue of when the price hits the support line and ends up bouncing off of it and moving higher. And if the price does fall below the support level, they don't report their earnings until the first week of August.

04. So, it's definitely possible if it does fall below, we do end up seeing some more declines, at least until it gets closer to them reporting their earnings. in relation to the share price right now, it's actually the opposite of what we're looking for right now. The 15's on the top, the 5day in the middle, and the share price is all the way at the bottom.

05. When we're really looking for those to be in the opposite positions with the share price on top, the 5day below that, and the 15 all the way at the bottom, when we do have it like we want up here, the first thing that I look for for a market reversal is for the share price to fall below the 5day. At that point, I don't get super concerned, but it's at least worth keeping a closer eye on.

06. But when the share price falls below the 15-day moving average, that's definitely a sign of concern. So, that's actually the point where I trim the 25% out of that position because from what I found is once the share price actually crosses below the 15-day moving average, it's going to be in a reversal.

07. and some additional losses should be expected. So, by trimming the 25%, it's actually become the second smallest position in my portfolio. So, if it does continue to fall, depending on the market conditions, I very well easily could end up adding to it again down here. But, if it does reach that level, and I think there's a good possibility that it could actually move lower.

08. I'm going to hold off on adding more. And if we take a look at the spy chart since my last update, it has touched the top of the resistance level twice, failing to get above it both times. But that's actually totally normal. That's where the resistance level gets its name from because for the most part the share price will experience at least some resistance before moving above it.

09. And of course, it's never guaranteed. So sometimes it'll completely fail and will end up reverting all the way down to its support level before moving higher again. So from where the spy price is right now, it would only need a.58% gain to reach that resistance level again. And if it's unable to do that, it would be a 2.16% decline to reach the support level.

10. If we get rid of the support and the resistance levels and replace those with is just a notch below the 5day, but they are still above the 15. Same with the Dave chart. During an uptrend, the share price is going to be above the 5day. And both of those should always be above the 15. So now that the spy price is below the 5-day moving average, that doesn't necessarily mean that the uptrend is over.

11. But if we want it to continue, it's going to be very important that the spy price doesn't actually cross below the 15. And it is possible for the spy price to close at the 15-day moving average or even just a little notch below it and still not technically be in a reversal. If you take a look at the two most recent times that that's happened, you can see that the spy price closed directly at the 15-day moving average before moving higher.

12. And then the most recent time, the spy price actually did cross below the 15-day moving average, but it was just for one day again before ultimately moving higher. So, you definitely don't want to just blindly sell whenever the share price does reach the 15-day moving average. cuz if you would have done that the two most recent times, you would have definitely missed out on quite a bit of gains.

13. So, how I handle those situations whenever the share price does reach the 15-day moving average. I ask myself, is it more likely for the share price to bounce off of it and move higher, or are we going to continue to see some more declines? If I think it's more likely to bounce off of it, I'll hold my positions, but if I do see some more declines, I'll definitely go ahead and trim.

14. It certainly doesn't work every time, but I've had pretty good luck with it in the past. , Meta, Pala3.22% of my portfolio. By trimming the 25% out of my Dave position, that now leaves me with 69.63% of my portfolio invested, which means I have 30.37% 08%. Persian Square saw a gain of 2.07, 07 and the S&P 500 had a gain of29 1.73. Persian Square has a gain of 15.36 and the S&P 500 is at a gain of 6.39.