Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 6/1/25

요약 보기

지난주 경제지표 대부분 긍정적(소비자신뢰 98로 예상 상회, 개인소득 상승, PCE 예상 부합). 9월 금리인하 가능성이 높다고 봄. 이번 주 화·수·금 주요 지표 발표 예정. SPY는 5일선과 저항선 위를 회복, VIX는 정상 범위로 복귀. 포트폴리오 95.8% 투자, 현금 4.2%, 신규 매수 계획은 없음. 개별 종목은 PayPal(-14.86%)을 보유 유지, Dave(+124.56%)와 Palantir(+41.55%)도 보유.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today is Sunday, June 1st, by taking a look at the events that happened last week. And as you can see, almost everything came out positive. The only real negatives that we saw was the initial jobless claims, which came in at 240,000 when the street was looking for 230. So, it was a miss by not by that much, but the pending home sales did miss by quite a bit.

02. The street was looking for a decline of 1% when it actually came in at minus 6.3. And for the positive stuff, the consumer confidence came in a lot higher than expected at 98 when the street was looking for 86. We'll have to see how that compares to next month's numbers, but at least for right now, we are trending in the positive direction.

03. And then personal income came in at a 8% increase when the street was looking for a.3 and personal spending fell right in line at 2. So, these numbers mean that people are making more money and they're also spending what they're expected to spend, which is always a great sign for the economy. And for the personal consumptions expenditures index, which is the Fed's most closely watched indicator for inflation, that came in right in line at.1%, which puts the year-over-year at 2.1 when the street was expecting 2.2.

04. And then the core PCE, which strips out food and utilities, also came in right at line at.1%. And then for the core PCE year-over-year, that was at 2.5 when the street was looking for 2.6. We'll have to wait and see how that affects the Fed's outlook for the next rate cut, but for right now, it does look most likely that we're going to see the next rate cut at the September meeting.

05. And then if we take a look at what's going on this week, on Tuesday, we're going to see the job openings. Wednesday, we're going to see the ADP employment report. Thursday is going to bring us the initial jobless claims along with the existing home sales. And then on Friday, we're going to wrap it up with the employment along with the unemployment report and also the hourly wages.

06. So, I'm going to say that Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday are going to be the most important days for the news related events. If you take a look at the spy chart, this is what it looked like for my last update. It definitely wasn't looking great. The spy price was trading below this resistance level, and it was also trading below its 5-day moving average.

07. It was able to close just above its 15-day moving average, though. Generally, from what I found is that when the spy price crosses below the 15-day moving average, that's usually the beginning of a reversal. On Tuesday, the spy price, however, was able to bounce off of the 15-day moving average and not only cross above its 5day, but also get above that resistance level.

08. And if we look, it was able to maintain that for the rest of the week. So right now, the spy price is exactly where we want it. It's above the 5day, which is also above the 15. And not only that, it's also still above the resistance level. If you take a look at the VIX chart for the last update, we were trading above its normal trading range.

09. But throughout the week, as the markets went up, the VIX dropped back down and is now once again trading back in what I consider its normal trading range. So I think as long as those news events that we talked about previously come out positive, along with no unexpected bad news, the market should see a pretty good week.

10. , Nvidia, Meta, Palanteer, and Welltowwer make up my top five, and those make up 42.2% of my portfolio. At this point, everything is in the positive except for PayPal, which has a 14.86% loss. It's been between a 15 and 20% loss for quite a while now, and I've decided just to hang on to it. If for some reason, it did drop to about a 30% loss.

11. At that point, I would consider adding more to it, but for right now, at least, I do intend to keep it the same. My biggest winner, which is Dave, has also managed to go up more as well. Right now, it's at 124.56% gain. And right now, that makes up 7.51% of my portfolio. Same as the last update, I don't intend on trimming any more in that position.

12. And then, Palunteer, which makes up 7.8% of my portfolio, had a good week as well. And right now, that's at a 41.55% gain. Right now, I do have 95.8% of my portfolio invested, which leaves me with 4.2 sitting in cash. I do like to keep above 5% of my portfolio in cash at all times, but I really like the way that my portfolio is built right now.

13. So, I'm okay with only having 4.2 in cash, but I definitely don't see myself increasing any of my positions this week. Since my last update, my portfolio had a gain of 2.93%. Persian Square had a gain of 1.95 and the S&P 500 saw a gain of 1.79, which brings us to date. My portfolio was at a gain of 14.76. Persian Square has a gain of 8.92 and the S&P 500 is at a gain of.74. .