저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
6월 CPI·PPI 등 물가지표 주간 일정 소개 후 연준 9월 금리인하 가능성을 CME 페드워치로 설명. SPY가 5일·15일 이동평균 위에서 상승 흐름 유지 중이며, 저항선 도달 시 포트폴리오 5% 가량 축소(트림)할 계획 제시. 상위 5개 종목(엔비디아, 팔란티어 등) 비중 43.09%, 현금 비중 약 4%. 연초 대비 포트폴리오 +18.42%, S&P500 +2.9%.
다듬은 글
Today is Tuesday, June 10 scheduled events for this week. It is going to be pretty important. We do have two inflation data points coming out this week. The first one is going to be the consumer price index, which comes out Wednesday. And then on Thursday, we're going to see the producer price index along with the initial jobless claims.
Jerome Pal's next Fed meeting is next week. It's going to fall on Wednesday, June 18th. And as you can see from the CME Group's Fed Watch outlook, there's a 99.9% chance at that meeting that rates are going to remain the same. If we skip ahead to the July 30th meeting, you'll see that there's still an 85 1.5% chance that rates remain the same.
And at least for right now, it's looking like the September 17th meeting is our best chance for a rate cut with a 52.2% 2% chance of a quarter basis point cut, a 40.1% chance of rates remaining the same, and a 7.7% chance of a half a basis point cut. There's definitely a lot of talk out there right now about the need to have a rate cut sooner than later.
But unless something dramatically changes, it is currently looking like September's our best bet. And if we now look at the spy chart, this is what it's going to look like from my last update. Everything was looking really good. The spy price was above the 5-day moving average, and both of those were above the 15.
And if we take a look at what the spy price looks like right now, you'll see that the spy price did bounce off of the 5day moving average, but fortunately, it was able to move higher. And just like before, the spy price is still above the 5day, and both of those are still above the 15. One of the reasons that I use the five and the 15-day moving average so much is I think it's a great tool for evaluating market momentum.
You'll see that the last time that the spy prices relation to the five and the 15-day moving average moved to the opposite of what we normally want was right before this gigantic downturn. And then on April 25th, once the spy price rose above the 5day and both of those got above the 15, that pretty much started this rally that we're currently in.
And that's why I got nervous towards the end of May once the spy price reached the 15-day moving average. Cuz if it would have actually crossed below it, that would have been the first sign for a market reversal. But instead, it did bounce off of it and the markets moved higher since then. If we take out the five and the 15-day moving average and we replace lows with the closest support and resistance levels, this is what it's going to look like.
From where the spy price is right now, it would need a 3.03% 03% decline to reach that support level again with only a 98% gain needed to reach the resistance level. I talked about it in a previous update, but if the spy price does reach that resistance level, it's going to pretty much put the markets at an all-time high.
I do think that there's a good possibility of the spy price at least reaching it, if not going slightly above it. But once that happens, I don't see it going much higher before having a correction and then ultimately going higher. So once the spy price reaches pretty close to that resistance level, I am going to go ahead and at least trim some of my current positions.
What I'll most likely do is trim 5% of every position across the board. That would still leave me with enough invested to continue to see some gains if the market went higher, but would also increase my cash position just in case the markets do see a slight correction I can buy back in. , Nvidia, Dave, and Palanteer make out my top five, and those make up 43.09% of my portfolio.
I have kept my portfolio exactly the same since my last update. But like I said previously, once the spy price does reach that resistance level, I intend to trim at least 5% of all of my positions. Dave, which is my biggest winner, currently has 151.12% gain and makes up 8.14% of my portfolio. That's probably the one position that once I go ahead and trim the 5%, I might actually trim 10% of that one.
Palunteer with a 42.64% gain and Spotify with a 38.11% gain on my next two biggest winners. My one position that's in the red, which is PayPal, has been doing decent the last week or so and right now only has a 9.44% loss. So, right now I do have 95.93% of my portfolio invested, which leaves me with 4.07% 1.52%.
Persian Square saw a gain of 1.28 and the S&P 500 had a gain of 65, which brings us year-to- date. My portfolio currently has a gain of 18.42. Persian Square is at a gain of 9.23. 23 and the S&P 500 has a gain of 2.9.
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