Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 5/18/25

요약 보기

5/18 기준 SPY 기술적 분석. 현재 상승 패턴 유지 중이며 15일 이동평균선 이탈 여부가 핵심 지지선. 2.25% 상승 시 과거 고점 저항선(사실상 신고가 신호) 도달 가능. RSI 70으로 과매수 직전이라 단기 소폭 조정 가능성 언급, 조정 시 소규모 포지션 확대 계획. 포트폴리오 93.06% 투자, 현금 6.94%. 주요 보유종목: 마이크로소프트, 엔비디아, 메타, 팔란티어, 코스트코(합계 42.41%), 팔란티어 7.8%, Dave 7.06%(누적 107.37%). 구체적 기업 실적·수치 근거는 제한적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today is Sunday, May 18 it off with the events this week. There's definitely not a lot going oith existing home sales, and then Friday, we're going to see the new home sales. So, apart from any news on the tariff situation or anything like that, it should be a pretty quiet week. We'll take a look at the VIX chart and you'll see that over the last few days it has continued to go down.

02. And where the price sits now is just above the halfway point in the upward pattern is continuing. Just like for the last update, the spy price is still above the 5-day moving average. And both of those are still above the 15 as well. For the signs that I'm looking for right now, for the market to keep going up, is the spy price not to cross below the 15-day moving average.

03. It would be totally normal for it to bounce off of the 5-day like it did previously. And it would still be okay for it to cross below the 5-day moving average. It's just important that it doesn't cross below the 15 because that would show lack of strength in the rally. For the last update, the spy price was just barely above the support level.

04. But over the course of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, it was able to climb higher above it. And it would take roughly a 1.77% decline to get back to it. If we check out the relative volume at time chart on the bottom of the screen, you'll see that as the markets been going up the last few days, we've had an above normal amount of volume, which is good to see because the markets can technically go up on low volume.

05. But if the markets go up with above normal volume, that means that there's a lot of participation, which is always beneficial if you're looking for a long-term rally. So, I am going to add this resistance level to the chart. And if the spy price is able to get above this, that would signal pretty much all-time highs.

06. You'll see towards the end of 2024, the spy price closed directly at it three separate times. And then we had a fourth touch in January with a fifth one coming in February. And then right at the end of February, it was able to get above it for a few trading sessions. And it was pretty much exactly at that time everything started to go downhill.

07. So if the spy price is able to get above it, I do think we're going to be in for a pretty big upswing. And from where the spy price is now, it would need a 2.25% gain to reach that. If we add the relative strength index chart on the bottom of the screen, you'll see that right now it's trading exactly at 70.

08. And anything above 70 is considered generally overbought. So even though I do think that it's possible to have a pretty big rally before that happens, I do think that the markets are going to fall just a little bit with the possibility that the VIX chart actually bounces back up to the top of its normal trading range, which would also put the spy price down here back at the resistance level.

09. And I would use that as an opportunity to increase some of my smaller positions. So just to recap, I do think that the markets are going to continue its rally, but a few day pullback is due. And as long as the spy price doesn't actually cross below this resistance level or get below its 15-day moving average, we should still be totally fine.

10. are Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Palanteer, and Costco. And those make up 42.41% of my portfolio. Palanteer, which makes up 7.8% of my portfolio. We're starting to see some pretty big gains again. Right now, it's at 39.12%. And my biggest winner by far, which is my Dave position, has also increased its gains as well.

11. That makes up 7.06% of my portfolio. And right now, it's at 107.37% gain. Once it reached above 100%, I did decide to trim that 25% from my last update. And it does seem to be holding its price pretty well. So, I don't think that I'm going to actually trim anymore. Right now, I have 93.06% of my portfolio invested, which means I have 6.94 sitting in cash.

12. Like I mentioned earlier, if the markets do see a slight downturn, I would like to get that closer to 5%. But if the markets do keep going up, I feel comfortable at where I'm at. Since Wednesday, my portfolio had a gain of 2.05%, Persian Square had a gain of 1.06, and the S&P 500 saw a gain of 1.24, 12.72%, Persian Square is at a gain of 4.46, and the S&P 500 is at a gain of 1.53.