Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 5/13/25

요약 보기

S&P500가 5일선 위에서 강세를 유지하며 랠리가 이어질 가능성이 높다고 봄. 지지선 근처까지 조정이 나와도 반등을 예상하며, VIX 하락은 주식시장에 긍정적 신호로 해석. 데이브 일부(25%) 익절 후 쇼피파이 매수 기회를 엿보는 중이며 포트폴리오는 약 93% 투자 상태.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today is Tuesday, May 13 update. So, we'll start off with position changes that I've made since my last update. I brought up the possibility of doing this move in my last video, and I did end up trimming 25% of my Dave position. It's had tremendous gains ever since it reported earnings. So, I decided to go ahead and lock in some profits cuz right now it's sitting at over 100% gain in my portfolio.

02. The plan was to take the money that this sale generated and increase my Shopify position. When I did this move, Shopify was already up pretty big on the day. So, I decided at that point it might not be the best time to increase my position. But, if it continues to rise and it doesn't really show any signs of a pullback, I'll definitely go ahead and do that.

03. But for right now, this money is just sitting in my cash reserve. And if we take a look at the spy chart, you'll see on Monday and today we had tremendous gains. This blue arrow indicates where we were trading at on Friday. And at that point, we were trading below the resistance level, but we were still slightly above the longerterm green trend line.

04. And I talked about the importance of not crossing below it because if we did, that would be a pretty clear sign that we were going to be heading straight towards the support level. And if that was to happen, that would have indicated a 4.4% decline. And as you can see on Monday, the spy price was able to shoot above the resistance level, which it wasn't able to do just 10 days ago.

05. And then we saw some more gains today. So when the spy price was below this line, it's acting as the resistance level. But now that the spy price is above it, this is now going to be called the support level. So if we do get a pullback, it would be completely normal to drop back down to that level before bouncing off of it even higher.

06. And that would imply a 3.34% drop. So now that the spy price is back at this level, we're going to add in this line again. Cuz when the spy price was trading down here, it definitely wasn't relevant. So when the spy price rose above this line, this became the new support level. And the new resistance level acted exactly as it should because that's right where the spy price closed at on Monday before crossing above it slightly at the end of today.

07. So, it's always possible, but I don't think an actual pullback to this support level is likely. What I think is more likely to happen is the rally continues and we ultimately bounce off of this support level before moving higher. If we take out the support resistance and the longerterm green trend line and add in the five and the 15-day moving average, you'll see it's exactly the way we want it.

08. The spy price sits above the 5day and both of those sit above the 15. The reason I think the rally can continue is the market shown extreme signs of strength. Ever since the 5day crossed above the 15 on April 25th, we've pretty much gone straight up. And the brief moments of decline only saw us bouncing off of the 5-day moving average.

09. If the spy price was bouncing off of the 15-day moving average instead of the five, I wouldn't be as confident in the markets. But only bouncing off of the 5day is certainly a good sign. And if we take a look at the VIX chart, you'll see that it's finally been able to cross below the top end of its normal trading range.

10. The lower the VIX is, the better stocks always do. So, as you'll see, this giant spike was when the markets were tanking earlier this year. But as people regain confidence and stocks go up, the VIX chart will go down. I definitely don't think it's going to end up dropping all the way to the bottom of its trading range.

11. But I could definitely see it settling somewhere right in the middle. Either way, it's definitely a good sign for the stock market. , Nvidia, Palanteer, and Costco make out my top five, and those make up 42.75% of my portfolio. Like I mentioned earlier, Dave is now at 103.24% gain, and even after trimming the 25%, it still makes up 7.06.

12. 06% of my portfolio and is currently my seventh largest holding. Shopify has also had some good days in a row. Since the close on Friday, it's at over 17% gain and has now gone from the red to the green in my portfolio. It's only a.13% gain, but it's at least encouraging to see it not in the red anymore, which only leaves me with three positions in the red.

13. Nvidia with a 2.92% loss, PayPal at 12.43, and Mind Medicine at 9.22. I definitely think the Nvidia positions on track to get green. The PayPal and the Mind Medicine might take a little bit longer, though. So, after the sale of Dave, that does put me at 92.93% invested, which has me at 7.07 sitting in cash.

14. I would like to see a pullback on Shopify before I increase my position in it. But, if a few more days goes by and it looks like a pullback's not likely, I'm just going to go ahead and do it anyway. Other than that, I do think I'm going to keep my portfolio exactly the same. Since Monday, my portfolio had a gain of 4.06%.

15. Persian Square had a gain of 3.31 and the S&P 500 had a gain of 4.01, 01, 10.46. Persian Square sits at a gain of 3.36, and the S&P 500 has a gain of 0.38. .