Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 5/25/25

요약 보기

5/25 주간 경제지표(소비자신뢰지수, 개인소득·지출, PCE) 발표를 앞두고 하방 압력 가능성 제기. 연준 7월 금리인하 확률 약 23.8%로 하락. SPY가 5일선 하회 후 지지선 이탈 시 약 1.73% 하락 가능성을 베어리시 신호로 제시. 포트폴리오는 현금 4.31%로 유지하며 보유 종목 그대로 유지 방침.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today is Sunday, May 25, and as you can see, there's definitely quite a bit going on. . If that number does come in low on Tuesday, that could signal some downward pressure in the markets. And thelong with pending home sales. And then Friday is going to be another big day as well. We're going to get the personal income along with personal spending.

02. Personal income should rise, but if personal spending along with the consumer confidence both come in lower than expected, that's definitely not going to be good for the markets. And then we're going to finish it off with a personal consumption expenditures index, which is the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator.

03. It was pretty much already assumed that we weren't going to see a Fed rate cut at the June meeting, but the July meeting still had some optimism as far as getting a cut. But at least for right now, it does look like that July cut is a little bit less likely than it was before. Right now, there's a 76.2% chance that rates remain the same with only a 23.8% chance of a cut.

04. So, after those numbers come out on Friday, it's going to be worth checking to see if those odds change at all. Cuz if we don't end up getting one at the July meeting, we would have to wait until the September 17th meeting to possibly get one. The markets did take a dip since my last update. So, I decided to increase three of my smaller positions.

05. I increased Shopify, Sprouts, Farmers Market, and Mine Medicine all by 20% a piece. I mentioned before that if the market saw a decline, then I would be looking to get my cash position closer to 5%. And after these three moves, it's just a notch below 5%. If we take a look at the spy chart, you'll see that since my last update, it has seen some downward movement.

06. And if we add in has crossed below the 5day. And right now, it's exactly at the 15. I've talked about it before, but when we're in an upward price movement like this, it's okay for the spy price to cross below the fiveday and even touch the 15. But most of the time, once the spy price crosses below the 15, that usually indicates a reversal.

07. So, with the consumer confidence report coming out on Tuesday, it wouldn't surprise me to continue to see some downward pressure going into next week. So, I'll get rid of the five and the 15-day moving average and add in the three closest support and resistance levels. This one in the middle is really the one that we want to get above and stay above if we want to have a continuation of the bullish trend.

08. I certainly don't think that it would be too negative if we end up reaching the support level. But if the spy price does reach that support level and then crosses below it, that's definitely going to be a bearish signal. And from where the spy price is right now, that would mean a 1.73% decline. So, I'm going to say that the best worst case scenario is that the consumer confidence does come in low, but the spy price doesn't actually cross below the support level.

09. That'll give the markets at least a few days to possibly recover before those numbers come out on Friday. are Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Welltow Tower, and Costco. And those make up 41.99% of my portfolio. I was a little bit concerned with the market declines that Dave would lose some of its gains. Cuz it seems like to me that when the markets take a dip, the most recent highest gainers are sometimes the ones that fall the most.

10. So, at least for right now, that gives me further confidence not to trim anymore, even though it's at 120.64% gain. Right now, I do have 95.69% of my portfolio invested, which means I have 4.31% sitting in cash. After increasing my medicine, Sprouts, Farmers Market, and Shopify, all by 20% a piece, I don't think I'm going to make any more moves for a little bit.

11. I do like to keep at least 5% of my portfolio in cash at all times. So being at 4.31, I'm already below that and that would mean I would have to trim one of my positions in order to increase another one. And I do feel confident about my current portfolio, which is why I do intend to keep it exactly the same.

12. Since Wednesday, my portfolio saw a decline of 1.82%. Persian Square had a gain of 3.04, and the S&P 500 had a decline of 2.32%, 11.49. Persian Square is at a gain of 6.84, 84 and the S&P 500 has a loss of 1.12. .