저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500이 하락세 끝 무렵 5일선 위로 종가 마감해 반등 신호로 보며, 매주 5일선 유지와 장기 추세선 돌파 여부를 관찰하겠다고 함. CME 페드워치 기준 3월·5월 금리 동결 확률이 높고 6월 인하 가능성은 59.4%로 봄. 경제지표(고용·CPI·PPI·실업수당청구)는 예상보다 양호. 본인 포트폴리오는 주식 비중 94.9% 유지, 현금 5.08%, 이번 주 추가 매수 계획 없음. 올해 누적 손실은 포트폴리오 -1.91%, Persian Square -2.17%, S&P500 -3.91%.
다듬은 글
today is Sunday March 16 I'll show the Spy chart coming up but since my last update I did decide to increase all of my positions by 5% the Spy price continued to fall and it did eventually reach a level I felt comfortable adding to these positions last week all of the events came in better than expected on Tuesday the job opening came in at 7.7 million versus the expected 7.6 which shows that there is still a stronger demand than anticipated for jobs the CPI and the core CPI both came in at.
2% when the street was expecting. 3 which puts the CPI year-over-year at 2.8% versus the expected 2.9 and then the core CPI year-over-year is 3.1% versus the expected 3.2 on Thursday initial Jess claims came in better than expected at only 220,000 versus the expected 225 and then the pp came in flat when the street was expecting a 3% increase and the core PPI came in at 2 versus.
3 so definitely better than expected if these had gone the other way the markets could have definitely continued their slide downward and then for this week on Monday we're going to have us retail sales on Wednesday we're going to have the Federal Reserve rate decision and then on Thursday we're going to finish it off with initial jobless claims and then existing home sales if we take a look at the CME group's fed watch Outlook tool you'll see that there's a 99% chance that the rates remain the same for this March meeting if we take a look at the following meeting which is going to be May 7th right now there's a 74.1% chance that everything is going to stay the same and there's only a 25.6% chance that there's going to be a rate cut and it's not until the third meeting which is going to be June 18th that we see a realistic chance for a rate cut right now with that meeting it stands at a 59.4% chance so I highly doubt that anything is going to come in this March meeting he's probably going to say what he's been saying which is that the Federal Reserve isn't in any rush to cut the rates and that he's going to continue watching the data points which reflect which direction the inflation's going closed above the 5-day moving average for the first time since this entire downtrend started there was three separate times during this downtrend that the Spy price tried to close above the 5day but It ultimately got rejected every time and moved lower the next day so it's definitely an encouraging sign that the Spy price was able to close above it so as long as the price can stay above the 5day the next thing that I'm going to be looking for is for the Spy price to get above the 15 which definitely isn't going to happen allinone trading session for the fact that the 15 day represents a longer time period in theory I suppose it's possible it would only be a 2.04% gain to do that but for this week as long as we can maintain staying above the 5day moving average and then getting Above This longer term green trend line would definitely lead me to believe that the downturn is over and that we're going to be in for another bull market soon if you take a look at where the RSI chart was during the most recent bottom for the Spy price you'll see that it momentarily dipped below 30 which is considered oversold so for the entire S&P 500 to be an oversold territory that's a perfect position for buyers to step back in which which is exactly what I think is going to happen over the next week which is going to lead to the bow run so again what I'm looking for this week is the Spy price to stay above the 5day and then get above this longer term trend line PayPal and Costco make out my top five and those account for 55.3% of my portfolio with adding the 5% to each position that now puts me at 94.9 2% invested which leaves me only with 5.08% sitting in cash I don't intend on increasing any of my position sizes this week and plan on leaving the 5% sitting in cash since my last update my portfolio had a decline of 34% Persian Square had a loss of 7.4% and the S&P 500 had a loss of 2.27 which brings this year to date my portfolio is at a loss of 1.91 Persian square has a loss of 2.17 and the S&P 500 has a loss of 3.91 Tuesday day
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