저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 테슬라에 대한 강세 입장을 유지하며, 전기차 시장 확대와 가격 인하 전략을 근거로 장기 상승을 전망한다. 테슬라 가격 전망: 우드는 전기차만으로도 주가가 약 5배(약 653달러), 자율주행까지 포함하면 약 13배(약 1699달러)까지 오를 수 있다고 주장한다. 이는 향후 5년 기준이다. 전기차 시장 전망: 전기차 판매가 2022년 약 850만 대에서 5년 내 약 6000만 대(시장의 약 75%)로 늘어날 것으로 본다. 이 추정도 보수적일 수 있다고 한다. 테슬라 경쟁력: 배터리 원가와 구동계 효율에서 3~4년 앞서 있으며, 칩 설계와 데이터 자산에서도 독보적이라고 평가한다. 가격 인하를 공격적으로 추진해도 원가 구조상 감당할 수 있다고 본다. 가격 인하 전략: 3월 투자자의 날에 2만 5천 달러 수준의 차량 발표 가능성을 언급한다. 다른 자동차 업체는 마진 압박을 받을 것이라고 본다. 매수 행보: 주가 하락기에도 ARK 펀드가 테슬라 주식을 꾸준히 매수했다고 밝힌다. 1월 한 달 동안 약 806만 주를 샀고 약 1억 540만 달러 규모다. 생산·인도 목표 미달 후에도 1,900만 달러를 추가 매수했다. 거시 전망: 인플레이션이 정점을 찍었다고 판단하며, 금리 급등으로 시장 공포가 크지만 이는 혁신주에 우호적인 환경이라고 본다. 반대 의견: 폴 크루그먼은 자동차 산업 특성상 애플처럼 수익성 높은 기계가 될 수 없다고 주장하고, 젠 뮌스터는 실적 부진 시 단기 하락 위험을 경고한다. 혁신 플랫폼: DNA·멀티믹스 시퀀싱, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, 인공지능, 생성형 AI(챗GPT) 다섯 가지가 동시에 진화 중이라고 본다. 테슬라는 이 중 로보틱스, AI, 에너지 저장 세 가지에 걸쳐 있다. 리스크: 생산·수요 문제로 지난 1년간 주가가 약 58% 하락했고, 2022년 시가총액은 8000억 달러 이상 줄었다. 고점 대비 60% 넘게 떨어진 상태다.
다듬은 글
do you think Kathy Wood will become any less bullish on Tesla's stock Kathy Wood an avid supporter of innovation has always expressed her optimism about Tesla despite numerous hiccups even when others have been scrambling to sell off Tesla shares wood has been snapping them up here and there wood has another Revelation about Tesla stock and you definitely would not want to miss this the EV opportunity alone is enormous star investor Kathy Woods said referring to Tesla firm's analyst Tasha keaney said on August 25th 2022 this represents additional context of .
keaney keaney also levelill which we believe our 2012 86 price Target would become roughly five hundred dollars per share post split based on EVS alone more than a 4X increase from the current price Arc invest CFA toshakini said in a tweet in early January while referring to Kenny's tweet arkhanvest Sam chorus said the company's Superior drivetrain efficiency and low battery cost should make it one of the best position to weather any cyclical slowdown for automakers as it has done in the past it can be the first to lower prices which puts pressure on other automakers chorus added agreeing with the analyst view wood said Tesla does not need autonomous ride hail to be a success the EV opportunity alone is enormous she added Tesla's goal according to the fund manager has been to drive prices down and increase EV adoption at the March 1st investor day CEO Elon Musk could announce a step function drop in pricing to twenty five thousand dollars for the next gen EVS she said wood further noted that gas-powered vehicles boomed at that price point Kathy Woods Ark invest expects EVS to scale from about 8.5 million in 2022 to about 60 million units or roughly 75 percent of the market during the next five years according to Wood this estimate could prove conservative would a known Tesla bull said that Tesla is three to four years ahead of the competition in battery costs and is in a world of its own in chip design and data assets for autonomous Mobility to explain it further she said it is like making a comparison between apple inc's chip design for smartphones and that of Nokia Motorola Erickson and blackberry wood is so much of a Tesla bold that she bought more Tesla shares this month after stacking up Tesla shares several times in January alone around mid-January Kathy Woods Arc invest snapped up more Tesla stock as the company slashed prices in Europe and the US Arc invest exchange traded fund bought a total of 389 305 shares of Tesla stock worth 47 million dollars at the time that came as Tesla announced it would slash prices on its model 3 and model y models Tesla has notably cut prices twice in China with the company battling slowing demand throughout last year amid Rising inflation and Global recession fears overall Tesla lost over 800 billion dollars in market value in 2022 marking its steepest sell-off since the company first went public in 2010 its stock is down over 60 percent from its all-time high in 2021.
still Kathy Wood remains bullish on Elon musk's car company and has periodically loaded up on shares amid the ongoing Market Route she recently poured 19 million dollars into the EV maker buying the dip after it announced it had missed its delivery in production targets wood has predicted that Tesla would reach 500 a share by 2026 as was earlier mentioned however this has already been disagreed upon by more bearish Market commentators Nobel Economist Paul Krugman said the Tesla would never be a profit machine like apple since there is no scope for that in the car industry Loops Gene Munster II warned that the stock could see a near-term downside if it reports disappointing earnings figures later this month when it announces fourth quarter results despite this Kathy Wood remains to have a positive outlook for Tesla so much so that her Arc funds have snagged 806 6663 Tesla shares in January alone recently valued at 105.4 million dollars although Tesla shares have plunged 58 during the last year amid worries about production and demand issues would sees big gains ahead for the stock just from electric vehicles there could be almost a five-fold increase in this stock during the next five years wood said in a webinar cited by CNBC and if you believe in autonomous cars at all it's closer to 13 times during the next five years so five times the recent price would be 653 dollars and thirteen times would be 1699 the company has implemented big Global price cuts and wood thinks that's a smart strategy Tesla is going to be very aggressive in pricing she said Tesla can afford to do this it's got the lowest cost structure and is innovating the most aggressively the other auto manufacturers will have to follow these price declines but it will hurt them from a margin and profitability point of view quite significantly when asked why she kept buying more Tesla shares during the dip even if the prices have fallen further and the performance decline has worsened with interest rate points and price fluctuating wood kept her answer simple well we believe that the leading indicator correctly is inflation and it has peaked the inflation rate has peaked almost every measure of inflation has peaked she said according to wood that is typically a good thing for Innovation however wood thinks that the market is so skittish and has been so terrorized sized by the most rapid increase in interest rates ever we have never seen an 18-fold increase in interest rates within one year it has truly terrorized the market and I think that the fear is palpable wood explained I remember in late 20 early 21 we could do no wrong and at the time I remember saying keep some powder dry it is for these moments or averaging down throughout a period like this that one keeps the powder dry wood shared she then said that 2022 seems to be the flip side of the late 90s the late 90s was an irrational increase in tech stocks appreciation in tech stocks and it was incorrect the Technologies were not ready and even if they were close to being ready the cost were way too high wood said today wood said that five Innovation platforms are evolving at the same time in the U.S today this has never happened in history and the seeds for all of them were planted during the 20 years that ended in the tech and Telecom bubble what are the platforms that Kathy Woods said are evolving at the same time today for first is DNA sequencing which is now called multi-mix sequencing since it is no longer solely focused on DNA sequencing but now includes RNA proteins and methylation it's very complicated but it's really exciting we're going to be curing disease thanks to these breakthroughs and in fact we've already had one a very important breakthrough just within the last week said wood another Innovation would refer to is robotics according to her industrial robot costs are dropping precipitously we have a labor shortage Innovation solves problems the demand for robots is skyrocketing right now wood said energy storage is yet another Innovation that Kathy Wood pointed to according to her consumer preference is Shifting to Innovation would said that it is not just in response to the Russia Ukraine war which caused oil prices to go up but also because these are now better cars that are more environmentally friendly another is artificial intelligence the breakthroughs in AI today I have to tell you are mind-blowing even to us now we are trying to look as far into the future as we can and we are seeing breakthroughs that we expected in five or ten years happening within six months and one year now said wood the last evolving Innovation that Kathy Wood talked about is the chat GPT a computer program launched by open AI in November 2022 and is built on top of open ai's GPT 3.5 family of large language models and is fine-tuned with both supervised and reinforcement learning techniques among the five simultaneously evolving Innovations today that Kathy Wood talked about Tesla encompasses three of them robotics Ai and energy storage because of this many including Kathy Wood herself are optimistic about the company's future subscribe to this channel for more Tesla stock updates
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