저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 AI 버블 붕괴 시점을 2026년 말~2027년 중반으로 보고 숏 포지션을 풋옵션으로 전환해 레버리지를 키웠다고 전함. 근거로 Ares Management의 AI 파이낸싱 보고서(약 5,730억 달러 규모 복잡한 금융 거래)를 제시하고, 금리 상승이 사모·사모신용 기반 데이터센터 자금 구조를 압박한다고 주장. 마이크론 2027년 6월, 엔비디아·팔란티어·나스닥100 2027년 9월 풋옵션 보유, 스프라우츠 추가 매수. 진행자들은 시점에 대해 회의적이었음.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Guys for Socks and I'm Dylan. And I'm Vinnie. And Michael Burry called the time of the AI bubble. Not that it AI bubble is going to pop. He's calling the specific time, doubling down, bought a bunch of put positions for a very near time. So, he is going all in. This is This is it.
This is it. Flames on the thumbnail. He covered all of his shorts that were shares and converted them to put options with expirations I'm going to show you. Okay. He really thinks this is it. He's it. He's He's calling it right now. I'm going to show you everything. Um ignore these. I'm having some airpod uh mishaps.
So, you know. Um all right. So, this is as of September 28th. Um this is his post. So, I was busy repositioning my portfolio late the weekend research and not only uh not only uncovered but informed fundamentally I'm moving my timeline up. Okay? So, uh I want more leverage in my short positions. More.
Better timelines make leverage more palatable. Nothing says leverage like options, in this case put options, which are relatively cheap. As of today, put options completely replaced all of my short positions. Perfect. Okay? Now, he he then shows so he covered all of these positions down here. Um let me get my air thing.
Uh Micron, uh CAT, socks, Coreweave, Nvidia, Palantir, and Nvidea. So, what we did is on after the side here I made it a little bit easier to read cuz he just says, "Hey, this is where uh my my position is now. This is where it is going to be. This is the strike price." So, MetLife he did several years out, $70 uh strike price currently $94.
That's the least important one. Here's your tech bubble. Okay? So, Micron June 2027. All right? So, what is that? 8 months from now. It's currently at $1,074. He's a strike price of 500. NVIDIA, June 2027, currently $224. And then he put in here that it's a double-digit strike price range, which I don't know what that means.
So, prob- probably 90. Um Caterpillar, it's currently $845, December 2027, $400 strike price. Okay. He's calling December and September for all these. So, the shares uh the semiconductor shares ETF, September 2027, NASDAQ 100, September 2027, Palantir and NVIDIA, September 2027. NVIDIA with a more than 50% drop from where it would be now for a strike price.
He's going all in. Mhm. Hardcore put options, leveraged up the ass, as high as you can go. Like dude's just calling it. And 9 months left maximum, basically. Yeah, well, cuz you think cuz So, he He also He does not like theta decay. So, if he's calling September 27, that means at least 3 months before that, otherwise he's going to be eroded by theta for for his strike prices.
So, if he's calling September, then he's really thinking June, but then he has NVIDIA, which is not in the same bubble. So, I'm actually going to take this out. But Micron is in the same bubble, and it's June. Mhm. So, 3 months before that would be March, which is very soon. It's October. All right.
So, he's thinking the clock is really, really close. I mean, I I Okay. I mean, I've seen other people saying making this claim, but people have been making this claim for a number of years now, so who knows? Yeah, I know. Now, he said some of this is motivated by reasons for tax loss harvesting. The majority of it was motivated by research this past weekend, and that leads me to believe the bubble in AI may burst sooner rather than later.
Um he has a whole post on It's called Heretic's Guide. It's very, very It's very, very long. I'm not going to do a video on it. Um but my work on part uh six of his of his video dovetails Ares work. Ares is a management company. Sorry, Ares Management is a company where they released this big report, which I'll talk about.
But he's saying, "Hey, my data is better than Ares Management. It's more up-to-date, and my data is greater in scope than just on the insurance side." Um, "I am more confident than ever before that my thesis has a timeline that will play out over the next year. This makes it much easier to add leverage through put options." And then he said, "I have to add a share this image from the Ares write-up, which entitled House of Cards.
This is very eerie of The Big Short." Okay, so remember there's that scene in The Big Short where they're describing what's happening when one person places a bet, and then that person's betting on that person's bet, and over and over and over. So, you have all of these people, um, let me get my mouse here.
All of these people looking at this guy who's supposed to stand for the insurance company. Um, he's essentially going for another House of Cards movement. All right. Now, who is Ares Management? They essentially mapped $573 billion in complex financing deals across 26 disclosed AI projects over the preceding year.
Um, these arrangements tie together major banks, private equity firms, data center builders, chip makers through a web of loans, leases, GPU back borrowing, and gross guarantees. They warned that the entire AI, which this is not new, the entire AI financing boom relies on unproven future software revenue.
If upcoming quarterly returns show that actual AI software demand is failing to monetize, then as soon as one pulls back, they all pull back. Is essentially the goal, which makes sense why Anthropic is trying to rush this IPO as soon as humanly possible. Right? If I if Anthropic is thinking, "Oh, we're we're going to be good for years." They would not be rushing this IPO.
[snorts] They are doing everything they can to have this by I believe end of this month was their what they just said. So, I don't know how that's going to happen cuz it hasn't been announced. But you only say that if you're really trying to push this. Yeah, I've heard inklings of it, but I haven't heard anything concrete yet.
Yeah, so basically if they start to fail to show revenue, which I agree and I don't think they're going to be able to, then you have all of these companies that are because interest rates are so high, they're going to private equity firms and as soon as they pull out it becomes a house of cards. He did not just short though in this post.
He also bought more Sprouts. Um and he said the shares are in my fat pitch zone, but my theory is interest rates rising has moved the market to sell off consumer names. Uh these names have already been hit hard last few weeks and have laid down. Sprouts is one of them. He's like, "Hey, it's probably going to drop more." But he's buying more at 63.
Um he also added QX which I'm not familiar with, so I didn't want to show. Um this is his thought. Let me move my face here. So, higher rates can absolutely be a catalyst as uh so much for the financing the data center buildout now goes through private equity and private credit firms and their captive insurers.
Higher rate stresses every part of that chain. So, essentially if one pulls, they all pull. Okay? That's that's basically all this chart is. Um I'm a little bit shocked that he decided to pull all of his shares short and go straight to put options. And when I was reading this post, I was not expecting September 2027 as his strike, right?
Cuz he was listing the companies he's doing it first and I was like, "Oh, it's got to be end of 2028 minimum." Dude's going for it. He's 100% He's all in. I'm a little bit in shock about it. But, I don't know what your thoughts are. Uh, it's interesting he's got to give a concrete timeline. You know, uh, a couple couple thoughts here.
One, obviously the whole AI kind of system is really uh, uh, a little bit of a house of cards in that they're all dependent upon each other, right? If just one of them falters and there's confidence is lost, the whole thing's going to go very, very rapidly, can evolve into, you know, significant sell-off.
Um, interest rates have been high for a while. They got slightly higher of late. And now there's some debate of whether the Federal Reserve will increase rates even further, right? Yeah. It's 25 basis points. Although the market really ultimately sits the rate with the 10-year Treasury. Uh, but we got some data this week where uh, the job market came in a little bit cooler than expected.
They decreased the the the jobs in prior reports. Um, and inflation came in a little bit uh, cooler than expected as well. So, maybe the Fed doesn't have to move anything. Maybe interest rates are kind of stable where they are right now. But, yes, they're relatively expensive. So, it's stressing the system.
It's just a question of which is the weakest amongst all of them. And when it will fall. Like, it's just one of them That's all I have to happen with with one of those companies, the weakest of the bunch. It has to collapse. People say ChatGPT is the one. So, in case you're curious. That's That's the rumor I've heard.
I mean, yeah, it's Well, they got a government contracts now, so that's tough. Um, I will say the part that threw me off the most here was the Nvidia September date and then the Micron June date. Because I don't see They're so entangled with They're all selling to the exact same projects, right? So, they're so entangled that it's weird that that's a 3-month difference.
And then you have theta decay, which is another 3 months. I don't see Micron tanking hard and Nvidia not. Yeah. I get It's a little bit weird to me. So, I He didn't explain his rationale for those dates. Um, he has his own own rationale as to as to why it's going to be happening soon, but not those two specific dates.
So, that was threw me off a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty fascinating. So, I guess you you can say like officially Michael Burry's calling it like this is the timing. Months left before the bubble burst. I will say I do like that when he calls something he puts a inappropriate amount of money towards what he calls cuz there's nothing more annoying like like like Harry Dent where he'll call a crash every 2 months, but he just he just says, "Hey, it's going to crash." He isn't like display any any positions that he's got sitting in the game.
He's like, "Yeah, I think it's going to crash." He says it all the time. So, this guy's going for it. He's shorting everything through leverage. Uh, we will see what happens. This guy is kind of Yeah. Very good predictions. I'll give him credit for that. I respect it. All right, guys. To the next one.
Comments 0