저자: Vinnie · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 오라클(ORCL) 숏을 추가했다는 소식을 다룬다. 오라클의 CapEx(556억 달러)가 영업현금흐름(320억 달러)을 크게 초과해 잉여현금흐름이 23.7억 달러로 감소했고, 잔여수행의무 6,380억 달러 중 약 3,000억 달러가 OpenAI 관련이라 실현 가능성이 의문이라고 지적한다. 진행자는 주가가 140대에서 200대로 반등하면 숏 진입이 나을 수 있다고 보며, 반도체 지수 숏이나 Meta 관련 견해도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to two stupid guys trade stocks how I'm doing? I'm Vinnie. And Michael Burry is making waves again with yet another short. Actually added to an existing one, too. Um this short is on Oracle and after looking at it, actually not that crazy. I kind of want to join in a little bit. Um it's it's not as insane or risky as the Nvidia one in my opinion.
Well, they're all kind of risky. But um we're going to take a look at this because I do think he's on to something when you look at the actual fundamentals and CapEx of Oracle. But he he also did some other stuff here. So, this is his post from August 6th. Okay? Um one, his Substack is very interesting, but he's basically saying this is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.
All these stocks look similar. Probably any any single stock you choose would work. Down here, the the fish have gorged themselves on off-balance sheet liabilities, backstops, uncommenced leases, and purchase commitments. Purchase commitments is Oracle galore, by the way. Okay. That is a hell hell of an opening line to an article, man.
Yeah. Pretty much. And also so large that it shan't be long before every last one keels over for lack of oxygen. So, what did he do? I'm going to talk I'm going to focus mainly on this one. But he shorted two stocks uh because my work just wouldn't let me continue without doing so. Which is a pretty funny statement.
Yeah, I mean, this is the musings of a delightfully insane man. This is amazing. Yeah, it's it's pretty funny. Um so, the green, just so you know, is the price-to-sales ratio. Um and then the the yellow is the last price. So, you can see they're kind of at a all-time uh gap for a long time here. Um and then he also shorted Navitas.
I I did not take a look at this one. I need to. Um but to me it just didn't look as tasty as Oracle. Um and and also the only way that I can short is by buying puts. And the puts on this, as he says right here, are just way too expensive because the extreme volatility is nightmare. So, I didn't I didn't look into this one, but he did add his short to SOX, which is the the chips and conductor.
All right? Okay. Ready? Yeah. Okay. Here's Oracle. Now, I know you're thinking this was already crazy high. Isn't it very risky to short right now? And that is very valid. You know, we're chilling up here at 350 in October of last year, even a month and a half ago, 250. And now we're at 147. So, shorting into the hole.
Yeah. Now, I will say when you have companies, and this is not a complete company. They still make a lot of money. But I don't know how they're even worth this price when you take into account their fundamentals. Um here's their their weekly uh going up the the weekly chart going all the way back to the about the beginning of 2023.
So, this is a a riskier short cuz they tend to hang out around 140. Hm. Okay. All right. Um if it if I were to take this, I would like a little bit of a bull run here, maybe up to the 200s to make me feel better about it. Um I think it's a little bit too risky right now for me just because I'm having a terrible year for trades.
So, I want it to be as good as I can make it. Um [snorts] Here's where this gets interesting. So, this is from their their website, their their investor investor relations. Um their record remaining performance obligations grew 85 billion in Q4, that their their Q4 from 553 billion to 638 billion. So, this is money that they're saying they are owed uh through contracts that have yet to happen they don't have the buildings to fulfill the contracts yet.
All right. But, all the backlog effectively, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. But, it definitely will never fall through. Okay? Absolutely not. This is This is basically You know who else did this? Nikola. Now, I I don't I don't want to throw, you know, Nikola is a complete scam. This is not a complete scam at all.
Yeah. Not the same thing, but yeah, I understood. Not the same thing. Here is I figured that you would really like this chart here. So, this is quarter the last eight quarters, fiscal 25, their operating cash flow, and their CapEx. Okay? So, 2025, Jeez. all these numbers, they're still they're they're still positive, right?
Except for quarter four, they spent a little bit more on CapEx than they had operating cash flow. And then it just diverges to utter insanity here. Mhm. To quarter four, operating cash flow 32 uh billion in capital expense 56 billion. Yeah. Yeah. That That would be aggressive even amongst like the the Googles and uh the Apples of the world right now.
And I am going to compare this to them, too. So, you can see exactly how insane this number is. Okay. So, we're we're going to compare to all of these companies that are doing this. Okay? Um, that's bad. That's That's too That's That's That's a risk. It's They're taking a risk. All right? And Larry, uh well, I know he's not that guy anymore, but they're This company is no They're They're They're very used to taking risks in the past.
They did what they do for that They lied to like against like the second version of something. What was it? Yeah. Yeah. I know that That's like the infamous story about how they they launched their first like product that is called like version 2.0 in order to just say like, "Oh, yeah, we already made one, but like, you know, this is the second one.
It's gotten better even already." It's kind of funny uh marketing right there. Yeah. It's smart. It's definitely smart. Um, here's their annual cash flow. Um, look at this number down here. That's what we were just looking at. And then you can see, you [clears throat] know, they were a free cash they were making solid, you know, decent money.
Maybe not for their stock price, but decent money. Um, this is terrifying, right? Because they're financing this with debt and and and bond offerings. Now, this gets worse. Okay? So, one, here's the other companies that are also spending a absolute crap ton on CapEx. So, I put their revenue in this column, their operating cash flow in this column, and then their their CapEx.
So, only Amazon and Oracle are are negative in terms of free cash flow. All right? Meta, which is getting the most for some reason, is actually the most responsible of of this group, which is not what you're seeing in the news at all. But, I are they spending a lot of money? Yeah. But, they make more, so there's that.
I mean, totally reasonable. Yeah. Hence, see my Meta video and how I bought some shares like last week, okay? Yeah, so did I. Um, so this is, you know, they're spending almost as much as Meta when their operating cash flow is 9 billion and Meta's is 32. That's that's a very important takeaway. Yeah, that's triple the risk in theory.
In fact, there was just an article on Tesla's earnings, which I'm not I think Tesla's overvalued, too. I'm not I'm not pumping in Tesla here by any means ever. Um, they were saying that they were doing too much for CapEx. Again, no. Com- comparatively, Oracle they should be in the news constantly for this, but
Yeah. they really aren't. They're I don't know why. But, I've seen one article, it's not really that bad. And everyone's like just drinking the Kool-Aid, man. It's Yeah. Wall Street's very selective in what what gets highlighted in narrative. Like same thing harking back to Meta, 20% revenue growth most recent quarter.
Like they just completely ignored that in like all the articles about their earnings. Like it's there there are certain narratives that just get very much expounded upon in like the the financial media. And you know, maybe Tesla and Meta bad, but not necessarily Oracle bad has been one of them of late.
So this is interesting. It's one to radar. A good example of that is when BlackBerry was huge, Apple was was was they you know, what were they called? The the kicking board or whatever. They were always kick Apple down cuz they premiered with a a phone without buttons. They're like, bunch of idiots.
Yeah. What a what an idiot. What a stupid thing to do, right? BlackBerry if they had a bad quarter like, hey, hold on, hold on. Then you know, they might still got something. Apple was on for a while and then it flipped obviously dramatically. Um so Oracle spending 55.7 billion in CapEx, its free cash flow dropped to 23.7.
Here's my my huge problem with this is of their 638 billion dollars that they keep on putting at the top of every single report of like, oh my gosh, look how much you we're going to be owed. [clears throat] 300 of that is Open AI. Yeah, that's going to I was wondering about that. 300 Yeah, that's If you're wondering they don't have it.
They don't have it. That thing. Okay? Now Open AI has a whole bunch of other problems. Their actual cash burn, they're not making any money. Uh they they actually lost 3.7 billion. They they had a a non-cash revaluation paperwork. So they actually lost way but they they lost a lot of money. Um but overall you can make the argument that if you're trying to be as pro as possible, they only lost 3.7 billion.
Yeah. Um for for the quarter. Now Open AI has 73 billion in cash up from 40 billion in 2025. And if you just look at those reports, if you're not looking at how, you're like, holy crap, they made a lot of cash. No, they just did another funding round. Nice. That's how they got the money. Okay, it was
funded. Yeah, it was SoftBank, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia. That will give them if they keep on expanding at the rate that they're talking about, 2 years. 2 to 2 to 3 years. If they don't lose more money. The problem is the more customers they get, the more money they lose. So, that's also a problem. You ever play that game at like a random birthday party where everyone walks around chairs until you ever run out of chairs?
Yeah, that's what this a lot of this kind of feels like and Oracle is certainly in a position where they're going to be looking for a seat here maybe, I don't know. It's it's not good, but I I've been fairly bearish on OpenAI. I I just I don't I don't believe that what they're going to do is successful.
I do think Anthropic can be. Um but [sighs] to spend that much money and have half the money that you're owed coming from a person who Sam Altman has lied multiple times. We caught it. We have we have people who are leaving that company saying, "Dude, that guy is a snake." And then they're comparing it to Theranos.
That's never a great comparison. That's never who you want to be compared to. Um I just it seems risky. I I I get the bet that they're taking, but I I do think Michael Burry is on to something with this short. I too afraid to follow him in the Nvidia short because there's too there's too many other stories with Nvidia and I I just I can't do it.
But, Oracle's makes a lot more sense to me. If they can increase the price to like 200, it looks looks kind of sexy. And curiously on your slide a couple ago about the credit down rating, was that was that Oracle OpenAI that was that was referring to? Okay. Just just clarifying because it's another thing that you've seen with all these you know AI kind of companies have been going to the debt markets, right?
You know, Google recently said basically I think we're done going to the debt markets. Meta said something similar I believe at some point in time here recently. So they were leveraging debt as to build out their AI infrastructure. But it looks like open I mean Oracle has done enough of this that they're starting to get downgraded from a debt standpoint which is definitely a little bit worrisome, too.
Oh yeah. So limiting their uh capacity there. Next is just going to be share offerings. That's that's where you That's where you go next, right? If if you have debt, if no one if no one wants to give you more money for debt, and you're committed to this incredibly risky line, share offerings, which lowers the price and make shorts a ton of money.
Yeah. I I mean that's if if they're committed, this slide here Mhm. I mean insane. I don't know what it's going to be next quarter. I don't know how high this is going to be. Um that's a severe problem. Somehow this video also just strengthened Man, Meta's numbers are sexy. I just I I I know I I I Comparatively?
Yeah, I'm with you, dude. It's a good another great opportunity to buy Meta. If we had the Jim Cramer soundboard, I would have just played the slushing flushing toilet sound. That's exactly what I thought about. The moment they have to go to like the the debt markets I I mean I'm sorry the the you know offering markets where they're in trouble.
Oh, you know what? I just played the window crash sound. You can't hear it. I just realized that. It's fine. All right. Let us know what you guys think. To me, if if there is a bubble pop, which I don't know necessarily, I do think there's going to be a huge downturn, but Oracle seems like it's by far the most risky out of almost all of these companies. Um and just Meta looks even sexier. Okay, guys. Catch you in the next one.
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