저자: Dylan·Vinny · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 세금손실 확정을 위해 알리바바를 매도한 뒤 주가가 약 15% 반등했다고 전함. 알리바바는 주요 이동평균선 아래 저점권이며 120달러 부근 재테스트 가능성을 언급. 미 법무부와 화학물질 수입 소송을 6억 달러에 합의한 점, 퀀(Qwen) 기반 AI 모델 결합 뉴스, 즉석배송 적자 축소 루머가 긍정 재료로 거론됨. 자사주 매입 재개(홍콩 일일 공시, 주당 약 105달러 수준 판단)를 관리진 신호로 해석. 버리는 매도 후 JD를 다시 매수한 것으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to the two super- dudes. I'm Dylan and Vinny. And welcome back again, my fellow Baba bag owners. We are back. I don't know, maybe for a long time, but right now we, we , we, we, a little behind, we might be close to who the hell knows. Okay, dude. This is the official position on IBA shares, I don't know.
Okay, you know, it's not ideal. Hmm, I have to apologize for how I sound right now. Uh, that let me down. Uh, yeah, and if there's any microphone, you know, of course, guys, thank you very much. A microphone for $250. I'm repairing my AirPods. Sorry if you sound awful. I will fix it. Yes. Well, you know, thank you Steve Jobs, okay, for still working.
Good. Well, let's talk about my Uncle Bur and how he sold his Alibaba shares at the wrong time to collect tax losses. Yes. At the worst time. the worst time I bought more, so I'm actually being kind to you. Then it immediately grew by 15% in a week. Why did they do this? Nobody knows. No, I'm kidding.
There are several possible titles that might make sense. Who knows? The real reason is that things do things that no one can understand, especially when it comes to Chinese stocks here. And don't forget where we came from. Uh , we are well below all moving averages. Good. Oh, yes. We Yes, quite low.
So very low. We'll see. Maybe we'll retest that 120, where it's now the 50- day moving average. Perhaps. Who knows? Chinese stocks react to news more than anything else. That's the real answer, right? So I asked Google, you know, a non-Chinese stock to tell me why Chinese stocks were up. And here's what Gemini said this week.
Sorry, I'm a little special today. just, um, but one of the big news stories this week is that they settled a long-standing lawsuit with the US Department of Justice. Um, Alibaba, um, imported, um, some chemicals that offended them. Um, my understanding is that some of these could be precursors to certain illegal substances that people would like to have in the US, and that from their perspective there were no restrictions on the sale of these things.
So they sold them. Um, but they eventually settled that lawsuit for $600 million. So yeah, it's, um, you know , I think it's positive news because it's still hanging over them, but they're still going to have to pay that $100 million in fines to the U.S. government. But yes, that was part of the story.
Of course. Fair. One of the things that Google was actually right about, and I personally didn't realize, is, um, their ransoms are back. Were you aware of this? I didn't realize. I waited because they are in a range right now where they were buying a bunch of crap. Yes. Yes. Yes. For a while, they, you know, invested a lot in their cloud infrastructure.
So they kind of faded into the background. Hmm, they still paid dividends, but did a little less share repurchases as their stock price rose last year. Remember, it grew by 80% in a year. Well, yes, but the fact that it's back is positive news. Perhaps at some point they will set some kind of lower limit.
We'll talk about at what price level they started buying them again . Um, mood. I love how Google Gemini looked like Michael Bure. Yes, they knew Michael Bry. That's fair. I can hurry. I mean, they, in addition to the lawsuit, it's like, I don't know, you know, you never know how it works, but they also said they combined AI models with Quen, and it happened right after that.
I'm sure the lawsuit will probably be a follow-up, but I'm sure once you have a news outlet that mentions Alibaba and the AI model just in the headline, it usually helps. Yes, regardless of whether that means anything. There was one article this week about how Katie Woods didn't believe the story about Alibaba's artificial intelligence, and that was enough for me to send the stock soaring.
Yes. No, that's fair. Believe me. So I agree. That's fair. You know, madness. Um, and then, uh, moods change from time to time. They are blowing like the wind, and right now it is a positive sentiment for Chinese stocks. Good. Uh, this moment, this second, this minute , you know, it does n't really last very long.
Uh, and then, of course, they will have profits. So the catalyst was their next leap here. Um, so in particular, it wasn't just them. It was Chinese stocks in general that had a pretty good week, which Boer was talking about how they're trading generally together. Uh, so he taxed Alibaba, and which one did he buy?
It was a BU JD. That was the week he bought it. Um, everyone had a pretty positive week, but Alibaba—it's better than the others because they had some microeconomic issues that were known to be positive. So, a few more stories they talked about here . This is again Google Gemini's answer to the question of why they rose this week.
Fund rotation is something that was no longer at the peak of popularity, and has become at the peak again. Please note that this is a separate story about my small- cap companies, but this is exactly the train of thought that existed there. This Apple supply chain is interesting, isn't it? We've been talking or hearing about memory prices going up rapidly, that apparently Apple is, um, exploring opportunities to work with some Chinese memory manufacturers, in particular, and that this could be beneficial for the Chinese economy in general.
So that's an interesting thought. I don't know how much of a positive significance this has. And then this legal development with Alibaba settled that. It's funny that when you look at the Chinese market as a whole, Google Gemini cites this story with Alibaba as one of the reasons for the growth of the entire market.
Yes. Well, these AI synopses have some problems. Yes, I thought that was quite interesting. Um, I mean, you know what you see, as far as headlines go. It jumped 11% after this news. Um, and that all Chinese tech companies have grown overall, but not as much as Alibaba. This was a definite win in terms of percentage gain.
Um, okay, losses in so-called instant commerce. So this is, um, a rumor that came up because, as you know, we talked about Hollib competing in two different industries or sectors right now, unlike any other company that I'm specifically aware of. Um, they're competing in this instant commerce space.
We talked about their margins narrowing in their old core retail business because they have to cut prices to get more market share. And they were talking about the fact that they were going to become neutral in terms of that, at some point this year, and that was their management expectation. I think the rumor spread that the losses had been significantly reduced and that they were making progress in this area.
And that was one of the positive stories involving Alibaba that emerged this week . OK. Interesting. Yes. We expected this. We were hoping for that, but, you know, maybe they're making more progress than we thought. So, I think so. And then this general rotation of market segments. Good. We talked about how they're actually competing for this market share in this instant commerce, offering discounts, and that maybe they're finally getting to a phase where it's no longer, you know, a situation where they're cutting their noses off, regardless of their faces, and where they're having to significantly cut costs and lose profitability, while trying to aggressively grow their cloud and invest significantly internally in the cloud infrastructure.
You know, tackling one problem at a time would be great, but right now they're fighting two big battles, which has been a problem for them, but maybe one of them is moving into another phase where it's not going to be such a headwind anymore. Um , and this is like a headline about those regulated chemicals that they've been supplying for eight years to the US, and that this will finally settle their, um, legal risk in that area.
So, yes. Regarding the share buyback. Okay, they file daily stock buyback reports, um, after the market closes on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. And this is the first day they bought back the shares, it was June 22nd. Um, the share price here, if you calculate it, because remember, there are eight, um, Hong Kong shares for one ADR.
So that's about $16 a share - that's kind of their purchase price when their management started doing the buyback. Good. So sometime during this time period, this is where they were carrying out the ransom. It seems they continued to do so until recently. I wasn't looking for a general trend in the number of buyouts.
I'm sure someone out there must have posted a, um, spreadsheet with this because people tracked it pretty religiously when they did it before. Hmm, but it's nice to see that management did state that the share price has fallen so much that you understand that it no longer makes sense for us not to buy back shares.
So $105 or so seems like management's opinion of where it makes more sense for them to invest in this than in their other business projects, whether it's their instant commerce or Alibaba cloud. So to me, this is kind of a signal from management almost to lower the price floor on what they think the stock is worth.
So cool. Yeah, that's...I mean, that's definitely very, very helpful. Excuse me, my baby is crying. This is a nightmare day. Hmm, yeah, that's...I mean they put their hands in so much different money, so you're going to spend more money. So the fact that they're having narrowing margins in this instant commerce business, and this other lawsuit , and I think this AI thing, to be honest, is also part of that.
The very fact that they just put their stuff together, whatever. I shouldn't matter, but in this world where you just have an AI headline , it usually helps. Um, yeah, it's a little bad for Michael Burr because he sold the week before it happened. Um, and we'll do a video later, but he actually bought another JD two days ago.
Now these are the top three of his assets. So, okay, fair enough. Yes. Okay, guys. Sorry. We will fix it. Check your shares in the description below.
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