Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway could buy back $1B of its own stock: Report

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결론: 버크셔 해서웨이의 자사주 매입 확대 가능성과 세제개편 이후 기업 자사주 매입 흐름을 다루며, 대형주 강세와 소형주 부진 구도가 이어진다고 평가. 버크셔 해서웨이: 버핏이 2019년 2월 주주서한에서 자사주를 대규모(약 1000억 달러 언급) 매입할 수 있다는 보도가 나옴. 2018년 말 현금 약 1121억 달러 보유. 진행자는 현금 대부분을 자사주에 쓴다는 것은 적절한 인수 대상이 없다는 뜻으로 해석. 자사주 매입 통계: 2017년 세제개편(감세) 이후 자사주 매입이 꾸준히 증가. 기업들이 감세로 생긴 현금을 주주에게 환원. 금융주는 수익곡선 평탄화로 매출이 줄었지만 자사주 매입으로 EPS 추정치를 상회. 향후 전망: 세제개편 효과가 점차 약화되며 연도별 실적 비교가 어려워질 것. 의회에서 자사주 매입 규제 논의가 있었으나 패널은 단기 입법 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 기업 투자(자본지출)는 시차를 두고 늘어날 가능성. 소형주 vs 대형주: 러셀2000은 2월 이후 약 1% 하락한 반면 S&P500은 4% 상승, 나스닥·S&P는 신고가. 소형주는 세제 혜택을 받을 이익이 없는 기업이 많아 혜택이 제한됨. 출연자 전망: 세제 효과 축소 우려와 실적 시즌 호조를 함께 언급하나 구체적 가격 목표는 없음.

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01. and this weekend we get to stay in New York but next week and we're going to Omaha we got the Financial Times out reporting that Warren Buffett has said the Berkshire Hathaway might buy back a hundred billion dollars worth of stock in this February letter to shareholders Buffett had said that Berkshire would be a significant buyer of its own stock I didn't know when significant became a hundred billion but I guess if you've got like all this cash and you have no elephants to go and buy then this might work out I mean what do you think of that number well I think they ended 2018 with a hundred and twelve billion dollars in cash so you're gonna put almost all of your cash back into the stock I guess that really means that he can't find any attractive acquisition targets and that money is better spent buying back stock but look Warren Buffett can do what he wants I think that's pretty clear what would this do to all the buyback statistics yeah well I mean the buyback statistics have already shown that there's been a steady increase of the five acts ever since the tax reform a lot of that was because companies who had not previously planned for having all this inflow of cash ended up getting all of this cash because of the 2017 tax cuts and ultimately decided to distribute a good chunk of that back to shareholders now obviously your milage are very company by company but in the financial sector where I was watching the earnings in the past week or so we saw a number of companies suffer from lower revenue numbers simply because of the fact that flatter yield curve was hurting their their numbers but they were able to meet EPS estimates and handily beat the estimates because of the fact that they were able to return shares back to or return money in the form of share buybacks so this is a story that's been developing basically ever since the tax cuts through the most of 2018 I'm interested to see now that most of the tax reform effects are starting to wane yeah whether or not that might come back down and also a couple weeks ago were we worried about legislation kind of banning or curtailing buybacks so maybe there would be some rush to do by tax before there's some law that says okay no more buybacks but look the the criticism I think is fair buybacks versus investing in businesses and hiring people and doing all that stuff I mean that's what people were worried about from the tax cuts that all the savings would go into and you know buybacks dividends that kind of stuff although I don't know if we've fully seen the effects the tax cuts yes I mean it's only been a year maybe year and a half and it takes time to figure out capex I mean I think there'll be a couple more years of kind of fuel from that stimulus that's actually something Mario gabelli was saying to us we don't really understand the full effect yet miles had a chart of the day not so longer than showed that you know an investment back into the company is actually starting to take up a little bit so there's a lag effect definitely Scott as you mentioned there is definitely that debate on Capitol Hill about what the public good is of allowing companies to do stock buybacks truly I mean having covered Washington DC I think it's pretty much you know not gonna happen we have a mix Congress down there in DC this administration is focused on a lot of other issues around immigration to probably want to prioritize stock buyback legislation on the top of the list so I think for the time being companies acknowledge that they have this cash it's just what where is it better deployed is a better deployed inside the company or in the lack of perhaps a deal for example in case of Berkshire Hathaway maybe it's better off in the hands of shareholder and I guess the only downside of the the tax reform just from a market point of view was that it made the year-over-year earnings comparables a lot tougher right yeah and we're kind of suffering from that now although I mean look if earnings season continues as it is right now and this was supposed to be a bad quarter yeah hey we'll take it another thing that I looked at with the tax reform is it was really supposed to help a lot of the small caps and we have not seen that with the Russell at least this quarter and really since February the Russell's down like 1% while the S&P is up 4% this week that trend kind of continued like the haves and have-nots so we have the NASDAQ and the S&P have been hitting new highs the small caps continue to struggle it's a really smart point and I think the issue there is that the fact that a lot of the small caps have no earnings that is not enough to overshadow the benefit maybe that they had from the tax cuts so you got to have earnings in order to benefit from tax savings essentially