저자: KatherineRooneyVehr · 외국인
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미국 경기침체 우려는 과장되었고 12개월 내 글로벌 침체 신호는 없다는 BlackRock 입장을 재확인함. 다만 경기 확장 후기 국면이므로 상승분 방어가 중요하며, S&P500 풋옵션 매수, 필수소비재·현금 비중 확대 등으로 수익 보호를 권함. 12월 이후 S&P500, 산업재, 에너지, 금융, 신흥국, 중국 소비재 등을 추천했고 이후 대부분 두 자릿수 상승. 중국 소비재는 추천 이후 37% 상승, 미중 합의 가능성을 기대함. 이익 확정 또는 방어 전략을 권하되 신흥국은 유지. 기술주는 크게 올라 과열 우려가 있지만 구조적 성장(자동화·로보틱스 중심의 제2차 산업혁명)을 이유로 일부 익스포저 유지를 권함. 이익 실현은 가능하나 장기적으로 비중 유지가 적절하다고 봄. 실적 시즌에 대해 실적 침체 우려는 반복되어 왔으나 실제로는 어긋났다고 평가. 올해 이익 성장률을 8%로 전망(컨센서스의 두 배)하며 실적 상향 서프라이즈를 예상. 산업재 강세 지속, 금융주는 과도하게 하락했다고 봄. S&P500 유지 권고.
다듬은 글
제목: 'No signs of global economic recession,' says Larry Fink 채널: Yahoo Finance 화자: Katherine Rooney Vehr
Well, there are no signs of a global economic recession in the coming 12 months. That's according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, in an interview with the German business newspaper Handelsblatt. He's saying the economy is not great, but it's also not bad, and he's warning that we are in the late phase of an economic growth cycle. Joining us now is Katherine Rooney Vehr, head of research and strategy at BlackRock. Katherine, thanks for joining me today. What are your thoughts on Larry Fink's comments? Do you also agree? And where do you think we are right now in this bullish economy?
Well, back in December, when it was not consensus, that was my view: that the US was not on the precipice of recession. That was a view I touted to all of my clients and to many media outlets. At that point in December, the S&P had dropped almost 20%, factoring in US recession fears, the China trade war, and fears about the Fed. I actually recommended going long the S&P 500, long industrials, long energy, long financials, long emerging markets, and long Chinese equities. Now we're up double digits across the board. The question I'm asking myself, and the clients are asking me now, is where to go from here. So I agree with Larry. I've agreed with him since December, when it wasn't popular. Now, really, no one's asking about a US recession anymore. It's the correct view, it's a little bit late, I think that's the correct view. But it's easier now to say that when you can see the market more internalizing the fact that the US is not on the cusp of recession, in fact far from it.
So, Katherine, where are you seeing opportunity right now? We're coming off this tremendous rally, and you're saying your clients are asking you where to put their money. What are you recommending people buy?
Well, the fact is that we are in the late stages of the economic expansion. So you do want to defend your upside. You want to defend your profits. The way you do that, and what I've been recommending to my clients, is buying puts on your upside in the S&P 500. You can buy December puts, December expiration puts. They're attractively valued. You limit your downside and you maintain your upside. You're going to want to do that for the S&P 500, and you're going to want to do that for China. China consumer discretionary is up 37% since we recommended it in December. We do think there's going to be an accord between the US and China, again another out-of-consensus view that we've held since December of last year. What we want to do now is either take profits or defend those profits.
The other thing you're going to want to do is increase your positions in low-correlated assets to the S&P. So if there is volatility, which there inevitably is going to be, and you want to protect your upside and your profits, you're going to want to get into, you know, PE, or into REITs, or increase some cash. These are ways to protect your portfolio. Buy staples, buy consumer staples. That's another way to do so. That said, I do think this year is going to be a year where risk-reward favors taking on risk. So buy emerging markets, hold emerging markets, stay in equities, don't sell. You could increase cash on positions that are up 25 to 30%, but I would say stay invested in this market.
Hey Katherine, we had one of our market guests on earlier today, her name is Corinne Dominguez, she's with Pay Capital Management. I was talking to her about the tech sector, the tremendous run we've been seeing. She was warning that the tech sector is way too crowded right now. Maybe now is the time just to take a break. What do you make of that argument?
Well, tech, sure. It has seen a spectacular run after it got severely beaten up, right? So if you want to take profits, as I mentioned, it's always good to realize high double-digit profits, especially in a volatile sector such as tech. It is cyclical, however, and I do think that structurally it's where you want to be over the long term. So certainly it's a good idea to take some profits, but I would say at least maintain some exposure to tech, because I do believe we are in a cycle that's structural. What I mean by that, Shauna, is we're in, you know, the second Industrial Revolution, with technology in this country and in the world, but on steroids. So this is a structural phenomenon of an economy that's increasingly automated, increasingly roboticized. I think it's important to maintain some exposure in that growing sector of the economy.
Hey Katherine, real quick, just what are your thoughts on earnings season so far? This is going to be the busiest week for the quarter, lots of talk about the slowdown we're expected to see. What's on the horizon for you?
Sure, lots of talk about earnings, recession, right? Every quarter I hear consensus, and in the media, a lot of guys talking about an earnings recession. "Oh, it didn't happen this quarter or last quarter, but it's going to happen in the next one." So look, I think earnings are going to surprise to the upside. I have earnings growth for the full year at 8%, which is double consensus. So I do think earnings are going to continue to surprise on the upside, because fundamentally, as economists, we look at this and we say: if there's growing demand, then corporations respond to that demand. I think we are in a virtuous cycle of higher demand, growth in inventories, and improving earnings from companies in general. There are certain sectors you want to play. Industrials are going to continue to outperform. I like financials; I think they've been beaten up too much. So I do think there are certain sectors better than others, but in general, let's stay invested in the S&P 500. I think earnings are going to outperform.
All right, Katherine, thank you.
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