저자: Yahoo Finance · 외국인
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한 전략가는 매그니피센트 세븐(빅7)의 이익 성장이 4분기부터 둔화되고, 나머지 493개 기업이 가속하는 역할 교체가 나타날 것이라고 봅니다. 2022년 이후 처음 나타나는 흐름으로, 방어적 섹터인 헬스케어와 필수소비재가 최근 플러스 수익을 내고 있다는 점도 언급됩니다. 다만 이 전망은 빅7의 이익이 최근 분기 60%씩 늘어난 데 따른 어려운 비교 구간을 전제로 하며, 밸류에이션 논쟁에서는 금리보다 잉여현금흐름(FCF)이 시장을 더 좌우한다는 해석이 제시됩니다. 설비투자의 2차 미분, 즉 증가율이 둔화하는지가 핵심이라는 주장도 나옵니다. 반면 메모리 섹터의 2030년대 EPS 전망에 대한 과도한 확신에는 의문을 표합니다. 원문은 끊겨 있어 발언자의 결론과 나머지 논지는 확인할 수 없습니다.
다듬은 글
I mean, my opinion right now is that almost every company is getting sold off because of AI. I think if you look at it more globally, Apart from Apple. Except Apple. At least not today, maybe tomorrow. But when we think about what's been happening in the market the last few weeks, I think the market is starting to realize that many of these companies are going through a kind of revolution in their business lines.
And this transition from one business direction to another will obviously be accompanied by difficulties. But at the same time, you want the companies that drive economic growth to keep up with modern demands. And not to give a vague answer, I'm almost inspired by the market discounting and becoming a little more selective about what these companies offer.
And I think with Palantir in particular, it's been noticeable as we see some of the business lines transition from government to commercial contracts. Again, if these CEOs and companies are investing in what they believe strategically will drive future growth, the market is just starting to understand that this is a major shift.
Will the day come when a profitable strategy will be to open a long position on, say, the S&P 493 and a short position on the Magnificent Seven? According to fourth-quarter earnings forecasts, this will be the first time since 2022 that the Magnificent Seven's earnings have slowed while the other 493 companies have accelerated.
We remember what happened in 2022, when everyone 100% predicted a recession. And so now the baton is being passed , which, in my opinion, is a little encouraging , because the market may sell off, and 493 stocks may fall less than the "magnificent seven." This is not good. Or you can watch what we've seen the last few weeks, where there's actually been positive returns from the healthcare sector and the consumer staples sector.
Of course, we don't want this in the long run. You don't want defensive assets to be the only part that pushes the market up . But this passing of the baton now, in the midst of the midterm elections and all these volatile earnings reports ahead of the fourth quarter, is, I think, a pretty positive catalyst or precondition for entering 2027.
I don't really believe in this handover, because everything always depends on the bottom line, on the profitable part of the PE ratio, that is, the denominator. And I think Strategas had a great headline for one of his articles this morning. It's like, you know, trees, they can't grow to the very sky.
So it's obvious that you're now faced with some very difficult comparisons. And of course, when the profits of the "Big Seven" are growing, you know, by 60% for three of the last four quarters, mathematically it's going to be very difficult to beat that. This is probably my boldest view of the market right now.
Although you guys are much smarter than me. I work with a firm in LA. This means "Lower Alabama" , not your LA, Los Angeles. But , you know, everyone says the market is very cheap right now. And of course, you have to believe the denominator, which is the profits, if you believe in the valuation of this market.
And everyone is saying that the market valuation has dropped 23% this year because of interest rates. Rates, you know, have risen above 5%. I say: no chance . I disagree with this. I think the market was... Wait, you don't agree that's the reason? Yes, this is not due to interest rates. Yes, I think it's more driven by free cash flow.
Because for a long time, the market had a higher valuation as the S&P 500 index became more non-alternative and free cash flow oriented. And earlier this year, we saw that most of the compression of multipliers happened when the market started to believe, "Hey, you know what, this capital spending cycle is going to last a very, very long time." So, obviously, the S&P 500 is up what, 12% this year?
That's even longer than "a very long time." I...I agree. I think when people believe that when this AI “air pocket ” comes in and you see a decline in profits, I actually think it’s probably going to be because of lower capital spending. True. So these companies, the "Big Seven" or the hyperscalers, will be more focused on free cash flow, where, yes, you'll see earnings decline, but I actually think you'll see valuations start to rise because it's becoming a more non-alternative industry again.
Yes. We've already started to see this, as you pointed out. And the expectations for 2027, 2028...they kind of call it the peak of capital expenditure investment, and stuff like that ... Do you believe that? I believe. And I think that regarding your thesis ... Wait, wait, repeat again. Cap ...Cap...
That we are actually peaking in the next 12–18 months in terms of capital spending. In absolute terms or in terms of weighted average growth rate? So I think we're essentially talking about the growth of the second derivative. That is, you can continue to invest or have positive returns, but is this rate accelerating or slowing down ?
And my opinion is that there is a slowdown in the growth rate, that is, the same second derivative. And once the market understands this, because it looks to the future, that's why some of these valuations have started to fall. Yes. This is disturbing. Really? I don't...I mean, yeah. I mean, I...I don't know.
Maybe I'm getting too deep into this because...maybe I'm being too optimistic because I feel like we're at a point in history where it's hard to even imagine what's going to change. And...and...and it seems like you can't use, you know, traditional metrics to analyze the market or these companies, and you just have to buy, forget about it, and just...
But I think it's encouraging that the market has turned its attention back to fundamentals for the first time in probably 5 years. I think this is positive. These companies cannot continue to spend until we see a return on investment. So I think it's going to be these kind of spikes and dips in spending that the market discounts , and then they catch up, which brings us back to your point about the transition from capital-efficient assets to capital-intensive assets and back again.
So, maybe over the next 3–5 years, when we're somewhere in the middle of the cycle towards the end, we'll have these jerks and stops, and that's when volatility will return to the market that we haven't seen in years. is n't that right? And my colleague Joe Seely wrote about this in his newsletter: they say you can't spend too much, because then investors will attack you with questions, where is the return on investment?
But if you're not spending enough, then the question becomes, "Okay, where are your options? Why are n't you getting the funds out of your IRA like you're supposed to ?" So it's about finding that "golden mean," and I think that's why you see people constantly criticized from both sides, and only a few manage to walk the knife's edge.
True. What I don't understand is why expectations are so high. More importantly, and perhaps a better word would be "confidence" when it comes to the memory sector. Like, “Hey, look at these EPS forecasts for 2030 or 2031. ” We can't even calculate everything correctly on a quarterly basis. So, I think this is the key point.
This happens intermittently, like Amazon and Microsoft's capital spending, which turned out to be five to six billion lower than expected. We can't understand where we'll be even in a quarter, let alone four or five years. That's why I'm a big fan of this trade. I think this is where this "air hole" will arise. But,
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