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이 영상은 중간선거 결과 발표 다음 날 아침 시장의 흐름을 정리하며 시작한다. 선거 결과 이후 데이터센터 관련주가 충격을 받았지만 시장 전체는 반등해 강하게 출발했다는 내용이다. 진행자는 AI 데이터센터 규제 강화 가능성이 알파벳, 아마존 같은 하이퍼스케일러의 잉여현금흐름 개선으로 이어질 수 있고, 선거 후 불확실성이 걷히면서 투자자들이 자금을 재배치할 여지가 생겼다고 해석한다. 또한 골드만삭스 전략가의 분석을 인용해 민주당의 정책 방향이 기업 이익과 에너지 가격에 미칠 영향을 언급한다. 애플에 대해서는 선거 결과가 방어적 투자처로서 호재일 수 있다는 시각을 제시한다. 현금흐름이 크고 사업 구조가 하룻밤에 바뀌지 않는다는 점이 이유다. 아울러 데이터센터 투자 축소가 메모리 칩 가격 완화로 이어질 수 있다고 보며, 애플 CEO 존 터너스의 메모리 비용 상승 관련 발언도 함께 소개한다. 시스코, 오리사 네트웍스, 모토로라 솔루션즈 등 인프라 성격 종목도 잠재적 수혜주로 거론된다. AMD는 분기 실적과 가이던스 상향, 2027년 데이터센터 사업 성장 전망(약 두 배 수준)을 바탕으로 긍정적으로 평가된다. 노보 노디스크는 경구용 위고비의 미국 출시 성과, 2031~2032년 특허 만료 이후를 대비한 파이프라인(프리엠고, 카그리세마), 가격 압박과 경쟁 심화 등 내년 전망의 상승·하락 요인이 소개된다. 헬스케어 뉴스로는 CVS의 Aetna 분리 발표와 정책 변화에 대한 기업 입장도 다룬다. 마지막으로 맥도날드 실적 부진과 버거킹의 동일매장매출 개선이 비교되며, 선거 직후 변동성에 장기 관점으로 대응하라는 조언으로 마무리된다. 본 요약은 영상 내용을 정리한 것으로, 특정 종목에 대한 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
Down. Oh, it's going to be one of those days. I got a quick shout out to my bud Lisa Sue AMDC. That's a big quarter there. Wow. Normally uh you would see AMD driving the market, but this is all about the day after election day and that is driving market. It's got a little fun messages that I picked up on X few uh the morning after as we digest all this stuff.
Elon Musk putting this out. Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now. Of course, he's basically saying it might be hard for him to build his data centers and get that terapab done because of what happened on election day. And then the next one we got here too, uh, besides Elon, I think we got one more.
We got one. There we go. Liquidity. They're always putting out very fun things. Uh, this is bullish for orbital data center. So, uh, yeah, I think a lot of folks still don't even know what the hell a orbital data center is, but maybe Elon does, and liquidity thinks that's where this is all headed the morning after elections.
Look, the markets are ripping higher. Uh, and we'll get more into that in just a second. Now, like I've been saying here, uh it has been a riveting 12 hours or so in markets as investors slice and dice the midterm election outcomes. And it's just been it's just been this just been that. Although, I will say there isn't much of slice and dice as blue wave Manny has ripped across the country and soon officially into DC.
Stocks got kind of hammered as the results trickled in. It was kind of nerve-wracking watching this last night. The thinking Dems are less pro business than Republicans and since they won't control the House and Senate, poof, there goes corporate miracle, corporate profit miracles that were driving the markets the past two years.
But something very interesting has emerged after that initial knee-jerk reaction. Stocks have rallied and they have rallied hard right out of the gate here. Here are three reasons why I think you are seeing this play out at the moment. Number one, the midterm election results threaten to significantly disrupt AI data center expansion as voter backlash over soaring utility bills, grid instability, and water usage drives a sharp political pivot toward tighter regulatory oversight.
That is being viewed as a positive for the hyperscalers like an Alphabet, like an Amazon, and that they will be forced to pull back on spending, which would boost free cash flow. Now, free cash flow declines have been at the heart of the latest AI stock selloff. So, if cash flow outlooks brighten up at the biggest companies driving the market, all the better.
Number two, just the election being over removes a cloud of uncertainty that had begun to seep into markets in recent weeks. We didn't want to like acknowledge it, but it was starting to seep in there. Now, investors could better place their chips where they see fit. Check this out from the team over at the Stock Traders Almanac.
Love me some stats, especially after an election day. 6 months after the last 19 midterm elections, S&P 500 has been higher 100% of the time with an average gain of 14.2%. And three, there is this call out by Goldman Sachs strategist Yan Hatius. Uh, love John's work that also gets to the heart of this day after rally in markets, says Yan.
The larger than expected majorities could give them slightly greater leverage in negotiations with the White House, but will also dilute the influence of small factions within the Democratic caucus. We expect Democrats to use fiscal deadlines to seek to limit the war with Iran, roll back selected tariffs, and reverse spending cuts enacted last year.
I read all of that from Yan and his Goldman Sachs team as proc corporate bottom lines. If we can get lower gas prices and fuel prices, best believe that is good for corporate profits, which have done pretty well this year considering where diesel, where fuel prices have been, even where jet fuel prices have been.
I mean, those airlines were hammered in the third quarter. But this is where you ultimately find me. And I love using the day after election day to connect dots. Like I love putting all this stuff together. Uh it's been a very busy 12 hours for me and our team here at Yahoo Finance. And this one I guess nugget which I think you'll start to see more of as the day goes along and then into the weekend.
But we're first for it cuz that's what we do here at Yahoo Finance. It's this take on Apple. This hot take on Apple that the election the the outcome of the election might be bullish for Apple stock. And really two reasons. You can read more about this from me right now on the Yo Finance homepage in our app.
Number one, uh the first is more of a defensive play amid the fresh DC gridlock. And look, we there's so many hot takes. You saw Elon putting things out there overnight. So many hot takes on what may or may not happen after the election. But the bottom line is Apple has a ton of cash flow. It's Apple.
It's not going anywhere. It's business by and large is not going to change overnight. So it might be seen as a defensive play as some of these new lawmakers get uh into their power. And number two, which I think is the bigger aspect to this, and I mentioned this at my open, and this is some really hardcore dot connecting, which you know I love doing and I think you should be uh loving doing too as well.
you could see a pullback in memory chip prices uh as a result of the election. Now I I caution you. I am thinking very long term here. This is not going to happen overnight. It's not going to impact Apple's next quarter. However, if you get the hyperscaler pulling back on demand because they can't get their data centers built because of new leaders in various uh key AI data center states, that could be mean less demand for a lot of the components that are being used in these data centers.
For example, memory costs. Now, Apple has uh warned repeatedly, even going back to Tim Hook a couple quarters ago when he was officially CEO on the memory chip price shock. It has impacted Apple. It has impacted HP. It has impacted Dell. It has impacted computer makers. Here's what new CEO at Apple, John Turus, just said this week about this problem.
What we're seeing with memory pricing right now is is unprecedented. uh and as we said earlier in the September quarter we did see higher memory costs as compared to the June quarter which were partly offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory and lower costs on certain non-memory components. Now for the December quarter we expect even higher memory costs uh partly offset by a few factors.
So as you know we changed the price on many of our products including Mac and iPad at the end of June and iPhone in September and these price increases provided some offset. Again, I acknowledge I'm connecting a lot of dots here for you and memory costs are not coming down overnight, not coming down by the end of the week.
But again, if you get a pullback in some of these hyperscalers and these buildouts, uh, as these companies start to focus more on free cash flow, they can't get these sites built. Uh, memory prices could ease. And I think that's why the majority I think there is a defensive aspect to this move in Apple.
But the bigger part here is potential uh, cooling in memory chip prices. At the same time, before I move on, at the same time that Apple has already raised prices on its products, if you can have higher prices on new Apple products at the same time as memory costs come in, that's a good thing. That is a major major win for Apple or could be a major win for Apple over the next 12 to 18 months.
Number two, Robley looking at some winners uh and losers outside of Apple. I love what the team at Evercore ISI uh came out with a little bit this morning on some of the defensive plays outside of Apple the morning after the election. I mean, they're looking at a company like Cisco. I mean, Cisco could be a winner.
Uh, regardless, I mean, we're even if you get a pullback in some of this AI data center uh buildout, Cisco is still going to be there to help build out that infrastructure. They have a lot of cash. They're a lot leaner than they were after uh a lot of job cuts over the past 18 months. So, there is one of the winners, Cisco, Apple, like I mentioned, Orisa Networks, Motorola Solutions, another uh infrastructure type of play, potentially a winner uh after the election.
And then another one by Lori Calvacina, more of a broader uh markets call. She thinks this doesn't, you know, we're seeing a big rally of course out of the gate here on the markets, but she thinks it will not stop the rotation into small cap stocks, which I think is interesting. Now, I have to go back, I think, and do a little more work on if that holds true.
Uh again, because could you see just a higher taxes, you know, given how the election shaped out and that wouldn't be good for small cap companies. Again, some interesting early callouts from uh the wild world of Wall Street. And amidst all of this, we have this, you know, Lisa Sue. She sits on my wall right next to, you know, Apple CEO John Turnis.
I'm going to add another executive on that wall very soon. And amidst all this backdrop of the election, we have good old AMD. AMD comes out and this is really and we saw reversal. At first, AMD shares popped after the results last night. justifiably so. Big outlook, big quarter. You have AMD CEO Lisa Sue hopping on that earnings call saying, "I'm taking guidance up.
I think we're going to have a bullish quarter this quarter." I think I see about 80% revenue growth next year. I see a doubling in data center business. That's what Lisa does. I mean, she just gets it done. You saw the stock rally. Uh but you're seeing a little bit of a pullback here. I think uh more broadly, I think this is a really good report from Lisa and her team.
And I liked a couple things she said on this earnings call. I can't imagine AMD stays down for much longer. Uh, number one, here's Lisa Sue on AI agents like Muse and what it means to her business. Cloud providers also added significant epic capacity in the quarter for personal and enterprise agents, which are quickly becoming the next killer app for CPUs in the cloud.
Meta's Muse and OpenAI's dots illustrate how quickly personal agents are growing with more than 10 million people activating Muse agents in the first 6 weeks. Enterprises are moving fast as well, putting agents to work across software development, supply chain, and IT operations. These agents work continuously and in parallel across applications and enterprise systems, adding to accelerator demand while creating a substantial increase in CPU demand.
If Lisa was right here with me, I would Well, she kind of is. She kind of is. Lisa, how are you driving this growth? Talk to me. Every single quarter, you've been coming out this year lifting guidance, driving results. Like, talk to me. How are you doing? She just smiles. I She just smiles. I can't blame her.
And then the other aspect here is like I just mentioned uh like I just asked Lisa on this photo, right? Lisa, talk to me about the outlook. Here's what she said about next year. This year is not even done yet. We think 2027 is going to be a very strong momentum year for both the CPU business as well as the data center AI business.
And you know when we gave you some of the markers, you should just consider them markers, right? So we've said the overall company will grow greater than 80%. And um for the data center uh CPU business we will about double and for the data center AI business it will uh significantly more than double.
And from that standpoint you should expect that the data center AI business continues to be uh as Gan just said you know Q4 is the first quarter where the data center AI business will cross over in terms of size uh compared to the CPU business. And we would expect both businesses uh to grow nicely throughout the year.
Well, Lisa just told me, Brian, you've been following my work for over a decade. You shouldn't be surprised. And I shouldn't be surprised. I we really this company is rocking. That's why Lisa Sue was really the first member on my sash wall of titans. She has earned that spot. And I said this yesterday on Palunteer and I think it bears repeating for a company like AMD.
Palanteer blowout quarter. Blowout outlook by Alex Karp and his team. The stock traded down. AMD blowout quarter, blowout outlook by CEO Dr. Lisa Sue. Both these stocks traded down initially uh or or down in the wake of this because of the broader tech. Neither one of these companies deserve this. Once the rubble settles in tech, these are the names you go and you kick the tires on, the growth rates are there, the stocks are off their highs, the outlook is strong.
Uh none of these data centers are going to be uh getting work orders stoppages overnight. That means a company like AMD when it Lisa tells you they're going to double their data center business next year if she did not have confidence in that happening, she would not step to that earnings call and say that.
So shout out to Lisa Sue AMD team because they absolutely crushed it. Now another company I'm following today is Novo Nordisk. Uh comeback quarter for them. Little bit of a beyond the inflection point in their business. I caught up with Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Dustar about the quarter and that company's outlook.
I think um as they say Brian market is always right but perhaps with a bit of a delay and especially when it comes to I would say our industry the fruit of many things we do shows up not quarters but sometimes even years after we we cement the seat and um and I think my job is really to make sure we stay the course.
Obviously we care about the share price. Obviously, we care about shareholder value creation, but um more important than that is create a sustainable growth and a durable company. And to do that, we're doing two, three different things that that I think you should know. One is trying to prove that with what we have, we're making a better version of it and and the most of it.
Um we had a a a product called Rebels in the market that was actually simaglatide in a pill for diabetes. did okay but did not you know do that well. We introduced an obesity version of it which is the same product frankly speaking just in a little bit of a higher dose and it has become the best product launch since co vaccine actually then um the other thing we need to do is continue quarter by quarter show on top and bottom line that we're able to drive volume sales you know with decent prices as well as of course um prepare ourselves for the next launches.
The second element and the one that maybe the investors need more proof point for is what happens next. What happens after OMIC and Viggoi when they go lost of exclusivity that they will hit loss of exclusivity in 2031 and 32. The news there is there's not going to be another oneoff ompic. There's going to be four or five multi-blockbuster drug to help that.
And that's more difficult to explain obviously than if there was one single replacement for something that was going LOE and and we're working and and showing and sharing as best as we can what those five plus multiblock busters will be two of which are going to be launched next year in US. Free Hemgo for hemophilia patients and Kagrima which is the next generation of obesity drugs mixing GLP-1 with a novel Amalain as the first company to introduce that.
Many other companies including our you know fierce competitor Lily is bringing their own version of Amalin. I am really happy that we were able to beat them to the market and be the first to introduce Amalin and and then of course we have to do well with you know those launches when when we do. when you and I initially spoke, I think it was the early onset of the the WGOI pill beginning to hit the markets.
And I remember I asked you about, you know, Goldman Sachs being maybe just a little uh a little disappointed on how it how it started, but like to me what you reported today, this is a big quarter for the WGO pill. I mean, has it met your expectations? And would you call this a blockbuster? It has exceeded our expectations.
Um Brian, you should know that in terms of volume, in terms of number of prescriptions um and number of people that have picked up a box of these products, there has never been any other product in the history of launches in US to this magnitude. Never. I think the only exception is COVID vaccine that has of course a place on its own.
Um so this has been by all expectations a phenomenal launch but maybe more so. This was supposed to be for 2026 a US launch only because we weren't sure with such an uptake if we're able to keep up with manufacturing. But yet we have been able to keep the uptake as it is and introduce this in seven other markets XUS.
So now we're in eight and counting. We just actually this morning got another approval for Australia. So that makes it nine. and and and as we enter next year and finish next year, I would say that as a bare minimum expect this pill to be in 20 markets, meaningful markets. So, it's it's very good and I think um we need to continue of course the the the pressure on our competitor has equivalent um GP1 pill in the market and they're really trying hard as well.
I am very happy that despite the fact they've been in the market now for a long while um we still have 80% of the market and they they have 20% within within the pill segment. You sounded upbeat uh in the momentum uh with WGO continuing into the new year. How does you know your competitor Lily with uh and I hope I pronounced it right if that comes to market early next year does that impact the demand for what you're offering?
Take a look at the US market specifically because it's easy then to speak to it. 100 110 million people are suffering from obesity. Let's assume half of those uh would want to go on medications, half would not. It's still a very large market size that you're dealing with where us and Lily right now scratching the surface.
Frankly speaking, obesity is a multifaceted disease and condition with various different patients having different needs. There are those who need huge amount of weight loss. They would otherwise have to get biatric surgery. There are others who just need five or 10 pounds of weight loss. But what they don't want is any nausea or any vomiting.
Others are worried about their muscle mass, you know, reductions, bone density, and what have you. There are products in our portfolio to cater for all of those. And the reason is that people are different. If we could do all of that with a single product, that would be a lot cheaper to do. Um, and I think the reason also Lily is trying to have multiple different options and shot at gold is simply because they recognize the diversity of the population.
So I would not say RETA is going to be better or worse than let's say Kaggri Sema. I would say for some patients it might be the better option. For others it will be Kaggri Sema and other products that I'll bring to the market. What's the latest on Kagra Sema? We are awaiting um approval of FDA which should happen towards the end of this year and we are already starting to produce the product and making ourselves ready and trained for the launch early next year.
How do you is that factored in how do you factor that into your outlook at all and what how would that compare to some of the products you have uh now on the market? So, so, so we what what we're basically saying is that on the upside for next year for our company, some of the things you should calculate in are two, you know, two new products and two new launches that that we don't have any sales for a continuation of a good uptake of the pill both in US as well as internationally.
um and and and and the bridge program, the Medicare bridge program that has shown actually to be a good new source of um revenue and patient for us and our competitor will get anno annualized because we only started with that in um in in mid year. On the negative side, we continue having of course price pressure.
we will have some of the loss of exclusivity that we have seen this year expand and be annualized into 2027 and and in in general I think it will be a year again with some ups and some downs and and hopefully a decent year. Uh Mike I just want to leave a couple quick minutes because there's been two interesting uh healthc care developments you know over the past day or so.
I you have CVS now splitting up from Etna. I mean that was a a real headline grabbing move. Some people expected it, some didn't. However, how does that split impact a business uh like yours? I think um when you're selling products like ours that are in need of many patients, then um then almost everyone would like to work with you.
We work today with all the existing PBMs. In addition, of course, we work with the government channels and have our own cash channel. So in some ways I would say um I don't see a material impact for us other than now we have to of course have two different negotiations and two different you know um group of people that we will speak to about our products and making sure that it finds it in their formulary but being you know a popular product company makes it a lot easier than otherwise.
Sounds like more work for you guys. It's good. I think it's better to be busy than unemployed. No, that's a that's a good point. And then the other one, of course, look, I this has been a blue wave here in the United States after election day. And I'm asking all top executives like yourself. Um, as it pertains to healthcare in your case, like how does this change the dynamics for Anovo?
Nothing. Let me try to explain to you why. Um, our slogan is lasting health starts now. Our mission and our aim is to truly provide better health care to individuals. If you're a Republican or a Democrat, you want better health and better life for your constituents. Um, you want more affordable products.
You want more investment for your country. You want more and faster innovation to come to us, hopefully made in US. We're doing all of that. So if my counterpart on the other side of the table is of this or that party, I think what we are going to speak to is going to be music to their ear regardless of their political affiliation.
I assure you, I didn't realize this when I laid it out this morning, going from a weight loss drug chat to uh McDonald's, which is complete on the other opposite end of the spectrum. Though I will note I do think this company is being impacted by more people using GLP1s and uh ingesting lower smaller portion sizes or just really eating a lot less food in general.
But anyway, McDonald's out with earnings this morning. I didn't like the quarter. I'm not surprised. I think it's stunning to see McDonald's US post a ne a slightly negative same store sales result in the US. You dig deeper into the company's filings. They're talking about weakening store traffic from McDonald's.
Not a good look. And then you have a company like Burger King posting about uh I believe, come over here, guys. I believe an eight and a half 8.4% same store sales increase. Uh I don't know what a Mc McChicken Girl Autumn is. If you do, get at me on X cuz I have absolutely no clue. In fact, speaking of Burger King, here's what uh the company just told me about it.
Fries. French fries are a very hot topic. Like people really want to talk about fries. It's the obvious pairing to a to a Whopper. And so some people like a thin fry, some people like a thick cut fry. You know, I could see you. What do I like? I just like the salt on it. Yeah. Yeah. And don't make them soggy.
Yes. Which means they have to be fresh. You got to turn a lot of them very quickly. But I think that um it's a very passionate topic for consumers. So we'll do something with the fries. Not sure exactly what and when yet. And I think at this point in my life and health journey, if I were to get fries, I just lick the salt off and put the fry back in the bag.
But I didn't like this quarter for McDonald's. I still don't have a sense of when the inflection point is in the business. I know you're seeing an earnings beat, you know, sales light, but the bottom line is here. Traffic is still under pressure. And I still don't know, as I've been thinking about it for the past 10 seconds, what a McChicken Girl autumn means.
get at me on X because maybe I'm just getting old and I have no clue what's happening out there in the world. But I think I have a general idea. Now, the morning after an election is always tricky for many investors. Like I've been talking about this entire show. I won't say the majority of investors because so many of you are true buy and hold investors and don't make investment decisions based solely on an election outcome, if at all.
But for a good number of you, you wake up the morning after election night and see two things. one, volatile movements in global markets and specific sectors. And two, a barrage of Wall Street insights getting pushed out on news sites and on social media. It is a lot. Full stop. And I get it. Today is no different.
SpaceX shares are getting hit, for example, because of the blue wave that swept Elon Musk's chosen state to do business in Texas. The rationale here is that the business of Musk will take a few knocks. And look, maybe we don't get that Tesla Space X merger. Just saying. More broadly, AI data center plays like HUD 8 are getting creamed on fear it won't be able to move aggressively with its uh AI buildout plans.
There's chatter of autos being a winner as Trump tariffs could be dialed back. So much to take in, but I want you to remember this as you digest the many election outcomes. Nothing changes in DC overnight, if at all. The fundamentals of companies are what will drive their stock prices in the near to medium term.
A HUD 88 data center buildout isn't getting a work order stoppage today. AMD didn't offer a huge 2027 outlook last night on its earnings call because it fears a blue wave stopping its CPU momentum in its tracks. Perspective is wisdom in investing. Use a dose of it today. Stay unleashed. Hey, hey, hey. Heat. Heat. Heat. Down. Hey. Down.
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