저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 2024년 1월 미국 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인이 임박했다고 보며, 이를 기관 자금 유입의 관문으로 평가한다. 핵심 주장: SEC가 여러 차례 반려 후 이번에는 깊이 있는 질의를 하고 있어 긍정적이며, SEC가 1월 10일경을 기한으로 설정한 것으로 해석한다. 거래 방식: 현물 ETF 거래는 현물(in kind)이 아닌 현금 방식이 될 가능성이 높다는 보도가 많으며, 은행이 암호화폐를 직접 다뤄야 할 수 있다는 SEC 내부 우려가 있다고 언급한다. 승인 후 가격 반응: 승인 전 선반영으로 인해 뉴스 이후 매도(sell on the news)가 나올 수 있으나 단기 현상에 그칠 것으로 본다. 기관 유입 전망: 기관이 0.1~0.2%만 비트코인에 배분해도 가격에 큰 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 비트코인 총 공급량 약 1,950만 개 대비 최대 2,100만 개라는 희소성이 가격을 밀어올릴 것이라고 주장한다. 비트코인 가격 예측: 기관 유입이 가격 상승의 가장 큰 요인이라고 보며, 과거 1년간 최고 성과 자산이었다고 언급한다. 목표가는 명시되지 않았다. 21Shares 협력: 21Shares는 유럽에서 약 20억 달러 규모로 운용되는 순수 디지털자산 ETP 제공사로, 미국 진출 인프라 점검이 잘 작동하고 있다고 평가한다. 다각화 전략 5종을 준비했다고 밝힌다. 리스크/조건: 승인 지연 가능성, 세금 및 커스터디 이슈, 단기 차익실현 매물 가능성을 함께 언급한다. 부가 발언: 엘살바도르·아르헨티나 등 법정화폐 채택 국가가 늘어날 것으로 전망하며, 비트코인을 금의 대체재로 본다. 후반부 로버트 기요사키 소개: 주식·채권 시장의 미래는 실리콘밸리 기술 스타트업보다 자원(resources) 분야에 달려 있으며, 자원이 다음 투자 붐이 될 것이라는 주장이 소개된다(영상 제작진 소개 내용, 캐시 우드 발언 아님).
다듬은 글
after being denied a few times without any questioning to uh be questioned back and forth this time around has been very encouraging uh and also shows the depth of the sec's knowledge of the issues and understanding of them so um we're quite gratified and uh you know hoping hoping we're very encouraged with our our partner uh 21 shares I think we've crossed every te dotted every I uh we believe to the sec's satisfaction I think the messaging around uh the 29th is look if you're not going to be ready to go on or around let's say January 10th then do not submit anything more to us because we have too much to do here uh and again that also is encouraging because uh it feels like a bit of uh that the SEC is setting a deadline for itself so that's great biggest controversy and this is in the Press uh but I'll highlight it because I think for most of it most of us it has been wow are they going to allow in kind uh transactions so you know limiting the tax uh impact of transactions or is it going to be primarily in cash and uh I think as has been reported widely uh I think it's cash uh not in kind at least at the outset here uh and I think there are just a few people within the SEC who um are just somewhat concerned that banks will be forced to touch crypto um uh we're not sure they will be but uh uh we're talking about something very technical so to answer your question yes very technical uh but that that has been I think the big issue as we head hopefully toward towards a resolution there will be repositioning for all kinds of reasons but uh I do also believe that uh the SEC approval will be a green light for institutions who have been holding back now we've had an a big anticipatory move here it wouldn't be surprising if we saw us sell on the news that's a an expression in the market sell you have a lot of anticipation a price moves up uh the event happens and then uh especially fast trading organizations sell on the news but uh beyond that that I think will be just a maybe a very short-term phenomenon uh I think that the institutional push into Bitcoin will be quite significant to the price in fact uh in our price expectations going forth the biggest contributor is institutions as they move you know they don't have to move very much in they can move there are trillions of dollars in assets to be allocated if they just move in 0.1% forget about 1% but even 0.1 or 0.2% that will move the needle especially as uh as we know the number of Bitcoin outstanding right now uh is about 19 A5 million and the the further that number the furthest that number is going to go is 21 million so the scarcity value as institutions move in uh will begin to move the price we believe hey money talkers have youve been writing the Bitcoin roller coaster you know things just got wild buckle up hit that like button and let's talk about the queen of innovation herself Kathy Wood today we're diving into the Bitcoin EF saaga and it seems like 2024 might just be the year we've all been waiting for let's begin Kathy Wood the PowerHouse CEO of Ark invest is shouting from the rooftops about an imminent Bitcoin spot ET approval She's Not Just hopeful she's confident happening in January 2024 why because she sees the SEC leveling up in crypto knowledge understanding the game and gearing up for a major move why is Kathy so hyped about this ETF approval well it's the gateway to institutional crypto Paradise she's teaming up with 21 shares calling them the crypto providers on steroids with a potential ETF green light institutions will flood into crypto like never before get ready for the big money to roll in she says watch the plumbing means keep an eye on the crypto infrastructure and here's a golden nugget diversify your crypto Investments like a boss it's a regulatory chess match and the stakes are high check and mate or Checkmate now let's talk Bitcoin Cathy sees it as the superhero of Investments defending against both inflation and deflation she's throwing shade at traditional assets and predicting a future where Bitcoin is as shiny as physical gold plus she's foreseeing more countries embracing Bitcoin as legal tender El Salvador and Argentina are just the tip of the iceberg Arin vest led by The Fearless Kathy Wood isn't just watching from the sidelines they're on a crusade for a Bitcoin spot ETF why because they believe it's a GameChanger a bridge between the traditional Financial world and the crypto Revolution it's their way of saying hey Wall Street we're bringing crypto to your doorstep now let's continue our discussion with Cathy wood as with any uh new ETF there it's it takes a while to educate uh educate investors Asset allocators Advisors uh about these new offerings so slow as it goes but the most important thing that's happening right now is you know we're watching the plumbing and the plumbing works that's that's extremely important you know 21 shares is the largest pure playay ETP crypto provider in the world with roughly two billion dollar in assets so that has been mostly in Europe This is in the US now and so we wanted to make sure the plumbing works and it's working beautifully uh and I do think that u a spot Bitcoin ETF will stimulate once once institutions and other investors have a Toe Hold into the space they will want other way they will want ways to diversify and so we wanted to be ready with those five strategies to help with actively managed diversification strategies some are lower volatility uh some are more Diversified with digital asset equities uh so again we're we're trying to be um uh shall I say a go-to for anyone thinking about investing in in digital assets we're very optimistic uh about coinbase now if you um I'm going to go back to what I I mentioned about institutions institutions don't want to bother with custody and and so forth they want and and tax issues and uh and other infrastructure they just want to be able to access uh quickly uh Bitcoin and and other digital assets we think longer term uh and and so uh you know if if we're right uh a spot Bitcoin ETF will be the most liquid way to access uh to access exposure to to bitcoin uh and and I think that that liquidity and the ability to move in and out quickly is is going to be important to institutions because some institutions yes will be Buy and Hold others will use uh use the ETF really as um a way to play a new asset class and you know they'll want exposure at times because the diversification increases risk per unit of uh I mean increases return per unit of risk uh so uh I think they they can't ignore it and so this is a very good way to access it we've had um both appreciate quite dramatically this year this has been the best performing asset by far uh this year and we always do take profits uh it's just simple portfolio Management on top of uh the actual price appreci appreciation of Bitcoin we've had uh the discount closing relative to nav for gbtc so that's been you know a double impact in terms of appreciation so uh it's uh just a traditional portfolio management Kathy Woods bold prediction for a Bitcoin ETF in 2024 are we on the break of a financial Revolution or is this just another crypto roller coaster last news the famous author of Rich Dad Poor Dad Robert kosaki has shared how he made most of his money he stressed that the future of stock and bond markets will depend on startups and resources not Silicon Valley technology startups predicting that resources will be the coming boom in the investment world
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