저자: JayWoods · 외국인
요약 보기
어닝 시즌이 전반적으로 호조이며 인플레 우려에도 시장이 기술주 주도로 강세를 보인다. 메모리 반도체(샌디스크·시게이트·마이크론)는 실적 덕에 올랐지만 포물선 상승 중이라 이 수준에서 잠시 쉬어야 하며 추격매수는 비추천. 순환매로 소프트웨어(MSFT·META·팔란티어), 원자력·양자, 방산(ITA, 약 20% 하락)으로 옮겨갈 가능성. 엔비디아는 4년간 박스권 후 신고가 돌파 중이며 2주 뒤 실적이 다음 상승 계기가 될 수 있다고 봄. 장기 보유 권고.
다듬은 글
Joining me now here at the big board to continue our setup of today's trading day. We've got Jay Woods, chief global strategist of Freedom Capital Markets. So, Jay, it feels like the wind is at the back of the bulls. So, what's your take? It's been a nice wind earning season. Earning season, we've just seen consistent beats across the board.
The fears of inflation really impacting the bottom line has not come through in most of these conference calls. We're seeing some pockets where it's a concern, but this market has kind of defies some logic. When it went down, it didn't go down as much as people had feared with all the headlines. You know, we go back Venezuela, we go back to the Scotus decision, and of course the big one, the conflict with Iran.
And rising gas prices. Yet, the market has been able to disconnect, focus on earnings, and focus on the leadership that took us up to these levels before we receded, and that was technology. So, I'll get into tech just a minute. Higher highs, you know, that we're seeing in the market. So, it feels like there's kind of a reset that's happening along the way.
The volatility has pulled back. VIX is sitting around 17 right now. So, it does feel like it's still risk on. Let's talk about the in over in the tech, the AMD big rally there. Rally in semis, memory names. What's your take on that? Are we getting ahead of our skis? Well, I I I think we are finally starting to get ahead of our skis.
It has been risk on, and when you see these DRAM stocks, the memory stocks, the Sandisks, the Seagates, the Microns go up as much as they have, granted it's warranted because the earnings have been so great, but now it's getting a little parabolic, and they should pause at these levels. I wouldn't go chasing these names.
But, when you see these names pause, what you want to look for is a rotation into other names that have been lagging. Can we get back into the software names? Can we start to see a Microsoft come back? Can a meta come back? Come a Palantir, which had fantastic earnings and was not rewarded for it. Can the sentiment return to some of those names?
So, what I'm looking for is, all right, a little pause in the the momentum there, but this risk-on environment, it's going to uh stocks that have been risky in the past. We're looking at nuclear stocks catching a bit again. Quantum stocks, remember them last time? Yeah, we've been quiet, all quiet on the western front.
They've been beaten down. So, we're seeing rotation intra-sector, and then other sectors like industrials continuing to do well. Um we've seen the defense sector, ironically enough, when the war, the conflict started on February 28th, which was a Saturday, the peak was March 2nd, that Monday we opened trading in the ITA, the defense sector ETF, and those names have gone down.
They've gotten down almost 20%. This could be a level where we rotate back into those names as one the conflict ends and we see a supply shortage in some of these defense contractors. So, I want to see rotation into industrials led by defense coming up. Okay, so one more quick question on on tech. Um AMD's outperforming Nvidia.
Sure is. Do you think Nvidia is at a point where it could catch some more love again? it should. Nvidia has become slow and steady now, um which you've seen out of an Apple, which is more expected because they don't have that revolutionary revenue uh spend and and these ridiculous revenue numbers. I think Nvidia is cheap here.
Um I have seen it consolidate over several periods in the last 4 years, not this long. It's finally breaking out to new highs. Uh earnings in 2 weeks, so we'll probably see the next leg higher led by Nvidia, but it could be keeping us at these levels, not taking us the next leg higher as we rotate back into that.
Broadcom making new highs. So, I I think for the long-term investors, if you're upset that this stock that's been a juggernaut for years isn't off to the races like it has been, it's it's a $4 trillion company. It's the biggest company in the world. It will get to $5 trillion if it's not there. It's It's goes below right now.
But Nvidia to me will remain the leader and it will be rewarded in time. If you're not happy with the rewards you've had over the time period the last two to five years if you've been in the stock, I would never sell that stock. I think it is the leader and will continue to be, but you're seeing catch-up because of the parabolic spin that we've seen in these memory names.
It's just been unbelievable. Maybe that stock will pay for someone's college. Yeah, exactly. We'll leave it there. We'll leave it there. All right, that's Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets joining us here at the big board.
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