저자: Molly · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 실적은 EPS 0.33달러(예상 0.28), 매출 16.3억달러(예상 15억대)로 대부분 지표 상회. 2026 매출 가이던스 상향(76.5억달러). 상업부문 매출은 약 6억달러로 소폭 미스, 회계변경 영향으로 설명. 주가는 실적 후 약 6% 하락했으나 이는 높은 밸류에이션 부담으로 해석, 애널리스트들은 여전히 매수 의견 유지. 옵션 전략가 Tim Biggam은 6월물 아이언콘도르로 130~160 박스권 횡보를 예상.
다듬은 글
We're back on money trade live. Let's focus on the software sector about an hour into the trading session for us this morning. Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks all trading like this. Oracle's the only bright spot. Obviously, it's a very earnings heavy driven kind of day off the back of what we heard from Palantir.
It was a pretty good report actually. It's sitting down though 6%. And so this is the chart for us. Obviously, there had been a number of analysts looking pretty bullish on this name going into this. We have had a few sell-side analyst calls in response to that. So let's dig into the earnings and the subsequent response here and why the market perhaps is reacting the way it's acting right now.
Joining us for a closer look as always is Mally. Mally, you and I were breaking down these numbers yesterday. I mean, they were pretty good. I mean, they beat on pretty much every metric and the guidance looked nice. I mean, obviously we hadn't at that point got the commercial and the government contract breakdown and then obviously KG had been talking about the billings and bookings etc.
Walk us through what sort of response we're seeing today and why. Yeah, see I mean I think you you you hit it right there. They beat on every key metric and I think that's the important thing. The commercial revenue number was a slight miss. We'll go through but they did disclose that there was an accounting change that may have accounted for that.
It does appear that this may just be paying that high valuation tax that we've already seen so far because there aren't any glaring problems here at least not in any of the analyst responses that I read this morning. But let's walk through the report here. They beat on sales, adjusted operating margin, adjusted free cash flow margin.
They are the the rare exception of a company that can grow sales by 85% and still have profit margins of more than 50%. Their sales for the quarter reached 1.63 billion dollars. That was far better than the expectation looking for about 1 and a half billion. Earnings came in at at 33 cents a share. A consensus was looking for 28.
That was up 154% year over year. They also, as you said, provided both second quarter guidance for revenue and adjusted operating income that blew past expectations, and it wasn't just for the coming quarter, they also did it for the full year. For full year 2026, Palantir raised its revenue guidance to 7.65 to 7.66 billion.
That was up from 7.19, so a considerable move to the upside there. Also saying it expects its US commercial revenue to grow about 120% versus their earlier guidance of 115% growth. But let's take a look at those government and commercial numbers because, as you said when we were covering these yesterday, they didn't come out, they weren't released until the deck right before the call.
So government sales grew at an 84% pace in the first quarter. Commercial revenue grew by 133% to about $600 million. That did miss expectations for about $604 million. Just a slight miss, but it was a miss, so a potential small flag there. However, on the call, Palantir addressed it and said that an accounting change involving a big customer resulted in a shift of revenue from US commercial to US government.
They didn't disclose beyond that who the big customer was or exactly how big that accounting change was or that charge, but it did shift that revenue from commercial to government, so perhaps that is why we're seeing that slight miss in the commercial number. Alex Karp went on to say, "Our financial results now demonstrate a level of strength that dwarfs the performance of essentially every software company in history at this scale." We know he's confident, he's always confident, but it has such a high valuation.
I mean, the stock trades around 97 times its EPS for the next 12 months. So Palantir gets judged not just on if it beats numbers, which it certainly did and has for the last 11 quarters now, but by how much it beats, and it's very volatile after earnings. Usually, the average move is about 16% in either direction.
So yes, while they are down a little bit more than 5 and 1/2 percent, this is a fairly muted or tepid response to earnings for Palantir. I mean, it feels like a big move to the downside when we have great numbers, but again, I mean, shares Palantir did get caught up in the SAS apocalypse, although Alex Karp making argument it shouldn't have, and it is a very different company comparatively, but shares are still down about 18% year-over year-to-date, but they've risen sevenfold over the past 2 years, so important to sort of have that perspective.
Yeah, absolutely. You raise a really good point actually about it being a somewhat muted response. We know that valuation has been rich. That's what a lot of the analysts talk about. Haven't stopped Rosenblatt from going to 225, keeping a buy rating. Obviously, we know the story with Dan Ives, who likes this one as well.
Outperform as well with a higher price target. So, we'll wait and see. Let's see what the rest of the names in this space have to say, but thanks for the details, Molly, and the breakdown, the reaction for us. Let's trade it now with Tim Biggam, options strategist over at Pilot AI. Very good morning to you, Tim.
How would you approach an example trade on Palantir? Uh good morning, Sam. And yeah, as you alluded to, you know, the analysts certainly still like Palantir going forward. I looked at Pilot AI, and the average price analyst is more towards the 200 range still. So, this stock being down here, I think will find some support.
It really has been mired in a trading channel for the past 12 months. 130 to the downside, major support bounced off of there several times. 160 to the upside certainly has been an overhang as well. So, I think it'll continue to do that. As you alluded to, valuations coming to the forefront here, Palantir certainly, even with the earnings beat, very richly valued.
So, it's going to have to continue to grow into those multiples. So, I look for more sideways action here. Implied volatility has come down post earnings, but still comparatively high. So, I like this going out, selling a iron condor out in June, selling the 130 125 put spread, and at the same time the 160 165 call spread.
Really collecting about two and a half bucks. So, you know, about a 50 50 shot here, 100% return on risk. Have the weekly shorter term to hedge if need be, but I think the stock will just continue to kind of chop around here. As always, stocks don't seem to go down big in this market, but I think the upside is muted as well.
All right, good stuff as always. Thanks so much for that, Tim. We're going to wrap it up there. Palantir trading 6.2% lower after these earnings. Tim Bigam there, options strategist Pilot AI.
Comments 0