저자: ThePortfolioBulletin채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼의 연착륙 확률 30~40% 발언을 소개하며 시장 조정 후 단기 반등 가능성을 논함. 공포탐욕지수 극단적 공포 구간, 풋콜비율 상승, 변동성 급등 등을 언급하며 S&P500·나스닥은 단기 반등 후 저항대에서 밀릴 수 있다고 봄. 미국채 10년 금리는 상방 정상화 가능성 언급. 진행자는 나스닥 콜옵션 포지션을 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hi everyone today let's talk about Jamie Diamond's comments on a potential recession then we'll take a look at all the usual data and charts do me a quick favor and like And subscribe and watch the video till the end to help out the channel and let's get started so Jamie Diamond came out and said he sees a potential soft Landing as a 30 to 40% chance making it the most likely scenario in his mind and then when asked if markets were too optimistic he said the odds were about the same when he made that call and now that markets have pulled back to basically that same level he thinks that we're more in line in terms of the market perspective he continues to talk a lot about potential uncertainties geopolitics housing deficit spending that continues to be a huge one that we've been talking about a lot on the channel quantitative tightening as well as the upcoming election all of these things are playing into markets right now and they have been volatile absolutely over the past couple of days and he also mentioned that he's a bit of a skeptic when it comes to the Federal Reserve getting inflation back to that 2% Target especially because of future Green Spending as well as military spending it's just hard to get inflation down when the government continues to borrow money and spend it immediately and then looking at fair and greed stepped up to a 24 from a 19 we're still in this depressed level here the same one we saw back here in October but it seems like we might be finding a little bit of a base we held a higher low we're starting to move higher you can see momentum stepping above the 125 EMA back up to 5300 with the 125 sitting at 5250 and then strength came actually down here to today back to neutral and then breath still in extreme fear that continues to Trend lower put call ratio continuing to Trend higher volatility fell off a cliff with the rally that we saw today and then Safe Haven demand in extreme fear as well as junk bond demand no change on the bond market and then looking at the earnings calendars here you can see Eli Lily crushing it Gilead crushing it Healthcare continues to be a good sector to be in and then for tomorrow basically nothing everg and then Home Depot for Monday and earnings is pretty much done for this season and then looking at the economic calendar here you can see initial jobless claims came in a little bit lighter that's what pushed up markets early in the session in my opinion came out at 8:30 markets jumped and then you can see previous number was revised up just slightly but nothing crazy 30-year Bond auction came in basically flat and then fed balance sheet also flat and Atlanta fed GDP also coming in at expectations and the previous read and then basically no data here for the Friday session then moving over to max pain for the snps they actually got it fixed here so max P 530 for tomorrow's session 531 current price we're right in the middle of the range 530 to 540 is the range you could actually see this rally a little bit maybe up to 535 that would be about a half a percent to 1% move total options 800,000 nothing crazy but put call ratio extremely low sitting below one haven't seen that in a long time and based on this I would expect just a slight rally tomorrow moving over to the charts starting off with the snps what a wild week of trading we got the breakdown from this bare flag here yesterday didn't even make it it to the lows of that pre-market on Monday and you can see we hit that after hours price action got a little bit lower hit the intraday low from Monday at the end of the session before we saw that rally and then we rallied pre-market and then rallied all day the question is is this going to break yesterday's high and push up to that 144 EMA up at 53450 or the 200 up there at 537 then you got the 90 Ma on the daily chart 53359 remember this is still a medium-term downtrend you got the 9 21 stacked above it 55 in the middle vwap up there but look at that candle on daily momentum that's an up candle we've got momentum swinging back to the Bulls side RSI just at the SMA almost to the penny 4348 and 43 49 is the SMA so right there almost to the 100th if it's going to break up needs to do it now and really I want to jump down to the 15-minute chart here just for a moment you can see right at the end of the session we topped out dipped a little bit low hit the 21 if it was going to fail it needed to do it here and then you can see we rallied up and ended up making a new high after hours so this does look a little bit bullish to me doesn't mean we can't see a slight pullback early in the session then a continuation but I would expect to fill that Gap here on the snps you can see the low from that close on Friday was 53290 we haven't touched that yet and that's right in the same Zone as the 90 Ma so we should see at least a little bit of a push couple dollars higher tomorrow and then we'll see if it's going to hold or not moving over over to the 4our Chart you can see that bottom slightly higher low got the rally here today ATR resistance is up at 540 so maybe that's your price Target that's the same low from back here on the 25th before we saw a slight rally into that bigger drop either way that seems like an interesting Zone and that's definitely within range that's 2% from here we saw a pretty big move today a continuation move tomorrow does make sense but then once we start to get into that zone you would expect to see at least a little bit of a rejection from there then moving over to the q's here you can see same thesis except that we eclipsed that previous high from yesterday fully roundt tripped that move again held a much higher low here we were looking for the breakdown continuation at least to this previous low did not get that at all definitely flipped the script here and with that higher low setup you could start to expect some of these upper levels to break 144 EMA sitting at 45207 200 sitting at 456 and those are within range start to see if some of those upper levels are going to break if they do not then we should expect a much bigger down move start to retest these lows but if we get here and they start to push through usually the first test fails hold the higher low and then potential push but either way we're starting to get into that zone for a potential test 200 day moving average sitting there as well at 45096 didn't touch that quite yet we're right at the 144 EMA now at 448 21 and then once again we got a step towards bullish RSI breaking above the SMA so that's a very bullish indicator and you can see that SMA is flattening in out that is usually when you start to see a bottoming starting to form you can see we were overbought SMA downtrend first test fail second test breaking above and overall for me this means that this is going to start to push up and test those upper levels you got the 21 sitting all the way up at 467 and then looking at those tasty charts very similar thesis you have a low higher low here now we're pushing up to that resistance at 45370 you also got the 55 EMA sitting there at 453 66 we're basically right on top of each other think we're going to touch that at least tomorrow then we'll see what happens after that momentum bullish not a ton of volume today which is a little concerning but overall this looks like a bullish structure with that higher low setup moving over to the Russell and the Dow similar thesis daily chart stepping towards bullish on momentum so we should expect more up moves based on that again doesn't mean you can't see some pullbacks but overall you would expect this to start to Rally up and fill some of these gaps 21 EMA sitting all the way up there at 216 or $10 higher from here and then looking at the Dow similar thesis up 1.74 21 EMA sitting all the way up at 401 moving over to the mag 7 as you would expect very strong day here touched that 144 EMA early in the session bounced back Above This level 24941 and we're back above the trend hit the 9 ma rallying after hours everything here says this is going to swing you can also see momentum swinging back to bullish strong candle push back above the SMA here on RSI seems like this is going to push to the 21 which is at 26139 moving over to Apple and Microsoft Apple's been a save Haven it was up yesterday it's up today 1.6 you can see it's back above 2 1155 up just a smidge in after hours Next Level 2 1761 9 EMA sitting there at 21522 so couple of levels to work with one intermediate probably going to push to that next one and then you got Microsoft 1% higher here today up about a dollar after hours momentum starting to swing a little bit better RSI not looking as good quite yet but if we get another up candle maybe that crosses above the SMA and then we could see a little bit of a reversal here moving over to Tesla and Nvidia Tesla same thesis as everything else good step higher got back above 19775 momentum stepping to bullish RSI not quite there whereas Nvidia good step here 6.13% seems like it's going to hit 10660 and then the 21 sitting there at 11484 momentum stepping to bullish RSI it's a back above the SMA here that's about flat so it looks like we're going to see a bigger step higher which would give you about $10 of potential upside to that next resistance moving over to meta and Amazon meta up 4.24% this continues to be one of the best performing here in the mag 7 Amazon slightly positive 1.86 but nothing crazy momentum did step to bullish RSI doesn't look as good as everything else whereas meta this looks like it could potentially push to its all-time highs and potentially overtake them honestly with how strong this has been looking over the past couple days it's up after hours 520 is your next level moving over to oil and gold oil two bullish days in a row pretty solid ones 2.7 and then 1.28 momentum stepping to bullish RSI bullish seems like we're going to hit the 21 at least at 7783 which is about another $150 higher from here and then gold did add some structure so you got a low higher low You could argue higher low here up candle today 1.5 up after hours if this pushes should at least touch those all-time highs back at 228 which is another $4 higher from here momentum stepping to bullish RSI back above the SMA so looks like we're going to see another upswing who knows how much follow-through there's going to be there but should get at least a second day continuation moving over to breath both of these caught a bullish candle and you can see momentum stepping back to bullish honestly this is a little bit shallow so I do think we're going to get a lower high even if we do catch a rally into the next couple of days lower high established which would give you a lower high in markets still think that's the thesis in my opinion doesn't mean this can't be a pretty aggressive rally get a decent retracement on this most recent down move but then we'll see what happens after that moving over to the put call ratio I just want to highlight this here you can see these lows have been higher low higher low the last two iterations you can see the SMA grinding higher on the RSI each RSI Peak also making a higher low and then you can see momentum stepping to bullish so overall to me this means markets are not done with this down move we're just seeing a short-term pullback in the overall downtrend which can be quite aggressive and it can last for a couple of days but eventually we're going to see this Spike up here once we get into the 1.6 to2 range then maybe we'll see a true bottom form but I just don't think that that has happened yet I think we are in a little bit of a downtrend just experiencing an aggressive retracement moving over to the dollar the dollar has up trended for 3 Days big wick rejection off of that 144 EMA pulling back to the 21 didn't quite touch the nine there momentum stepping to bullish again interesting here the dollar rallying with equities rallying we're not seeing that traditional inverse relationship so maybe equities are just pushing up and we're actually going to see the lagging effects of this rallying dollar and push equities down later but something to consider at least in the short term moving over to the 2-year and the 10e these continue to Rally a little bit getting into some interesting zones very close to that 9 EMA on today's Candle on the 2-year at 4.108 now we're pulling back a little bit from that momentum still bullish here RSI still a little bit bullish and then look at the 10-year bigger up candle above the 9 EMA there potentially pushing to the 21 up at 4103 if we did get there that would put us back into normalized conditions I do still think that that is going to happen and this seems like a decent settling area for the 10-year 2-year probably going to roll down closer to that 3 and 1/2 at some point in the next couple couple of months moving over to jnk and TLT jnk caught a slight bounce momentum swinging to bullish I still expect it to reject from this previous high if we even get that high these lows were right in the same area that they have been the high was higher but the low was flat momentum says this could go higher but I just don't see it happening of course anything is possible play the market you have but it doesn't seem likely and then looking at TLT catching a little bit of a bounce here off of vwap momentum still cratering RSI below the SMA so that's not super great still like this to continue to Trend higher and I think we're going to touch that 100 level within the next week or two moving over to volatility Bond volatility continues to Crater I think we're going to catch a bounce here and then we'll see what happens that would give J&K another day or two of upside potential we're right at the SMA so that could be interesting as well and then vix still holding right at that 90 Ma at 2339 still elevated I think we're probably going to see at least one more day of down move maybe hit the 21 down at 186 65 momentum stepping down RSI slightly bearish there so looks like we'll see at least one more down candle moving over to my accounts I just cannot seem to get on the right side of markets continuing to make bad decisions overall still slightly bullish going into tomorrow's session got my Russell still at 203 rolled it out and up $1 Max profit there basically at it already at 20683 could roll it up again tomorrow just being patient we'll see how that plays and then the cues I did jump into a pretty big position right at the end of the session I still think we're going to continue to Rally here I left the calls in the money though $4.50 is my medium price and they are at 447 so if we do start to see a reversal which is certainly possible off of these kind of resistance areas that we talked about I should be at least a little bit protected in tomorrow's session but I still want to give myself an opportunity for that potential second day continuation up towards that 21 EMA or potentially even higher so slightly bullish maybe a little bit more than I wanted to be but still trying to give myself a potential profit day tomorrow let me know down in the comments section what you think of Jamie Diamond and the potential for a soft Landing I think markets have definitely priced in a harder Landing than we were thinking initially will we rally back up to those soft Landing prices or is this the new normal price range definitely let me know in the comments and like And subscribe if you got any value out of this video and make sure you hit the Bell so you don't miss out on any future episodes of course none of this is financial advice this is all for entertainment purposes good luck in your trading and have a great day
Comments 0