저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버핏의 2023년 2분기 13F 공시를 분석한 영상으로, 결론은 버크셔가 액티비전 블리자드 지분을 전량 매도했으나 Ted·Todd 운용분은 보유 중이라는 것. 액티비전 블리자드: 2022년 1분기 마이크로소프트 인수 발표 후 주당 95달러 인수가 대비 약 17% 스프레드를 노리고 차익거래 성격으로 매수. 규제 불확실성(FTC, 영국 CMA) 속에서 2분기 중 지분 70%를 매도. 주가는 2분기 저점 약 76달러, 최근 약 90달러로 회복되어 시장은 인수 성사 확률을 높게 보는 상황. 버핏 매도 해석: 3개월 전 주주총회에서 영국 규제당국 차단 가능성을 언급하며 매도 신호를 일부 암시. 버핏은 결과가 불확실해지면 빠져나가는 경향이 있음. 다만 Ted·Todd는 2021년 4분기부터 1,465만 8,121주를 보유 중이며 현재도 동일 수량을 유지. 셰브론: 지분 약 7% 축소(약 200억 달러 규모). 작년 1분기 대량 매수 후 약 25% 상승한 상태라 차익실현 또는 세금 관리 가능성. 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄: 최근 5개 분기 중 5번 매수, 지분 25% 이상 보유. CEO 비키 홀럽의 경영 방식을 높이 평가, 배당과 자사주 매입으로 주주환원 중. 유가 해석 주의: 버핏의 석유주 매수는 단기 유가 상승 베팅이 아니라는 점을 버핏 본인 발언(선물을 살 것이라는 취지)을 인용하며 강조. 기타 변동: 캐피털원 25% 증액, 셀라니즈 39% 축소, GM 절반 축소, 글로브라이프 60% 축소, 맥케슨·마샬앤드맥레넌·베르테스 에너지 전량 매도. 신규 매수는 DR호튼, NVR, 레나 3종목이나 포트폴리오 비중이 작아 Ted·Todd 소행으로 추정. 애플 비중은 버크셔 미국주식 포트폴리오의 50% 이상이지만, 보험·철도·에너지 등 사업 전반에서 보면 주식 포트폴리오는 일부라는 점을 강조. 출연자는 투자 분석 관점에서 액티비전 인수 성사 가능성을 높게 보는 방향이나 명시적 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
well it's that time of year again the 13f filings are out which means we get to peek inside the portfolios of the world's best investors and if we look to the biggest best investor of them all Mr Warren Buffett there was some very intriguing activity in his filing this time around his filing confirmed that he has sold his stake in Activision Blizzard now if you have a Keen Eye you could have already figured this out as Berkshire did already State this in a prior SEC filing and it did the news rounds at the time but now we see it popping up in what was definitely the biggest takeaway from his 13f filing Warren Buffett first bought Activision Blizzard in q1 of 2022 after Microsoft announced that they were looking to acquire the company to add yet another set of big name Video game titles to their XBox business and at the time Buffett called this a workout or a risky Arbitrage play where he was not necessarily buying Activision for the business itself but rather holding it because there was significant money to be made if the acquisition went through Microsoft announced they were going to buy Activision for 95 a share at that point Activision becomes a different kind of security there are securities whose value depends not on what the market price does but whether a given corporate event occurs so anyway we now own nine and a half percent of Activision if the deal goes through we make some money and if the deal doesn't go through who knows what happens at the time Activision shares with trading for roughly 81 but Microsoft's proposal would see them by all the shares from investors for 95.
now this represented a potential 17 upside if the deal went through and that's what Buffett jumped on it's a good chunk of change for a simple acquisition going through although as we know now the deal ended up meeting heavy resistance from both the FTC and the US and the competition and markets Authority in the UK a debate which has still not been resolved and while Activision Blizzard shares have more recently closed up to ninety dollars AKA punters are predicting a much higher probability that the deal will get done now it seems Warren Buffett wasn't interested in sticking around to find out his 13f filing shows he decided to sell 70 of the Activision Blizzard shares Berkshire owned during Q2 and for those paying attention he kind of already hinted that this might have been on the cards listen to what he said three months ago back at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting since the UK regulator has blocked its acquisition by Microsoft his Berkshire reduced or sold at stake well I think in terms of what we do with stocks we don't give information except one required to which is in the 13 out for whatever we file but I would say this I think Microsoft has been remarkably willing to cooperate with governing bodies and they want to do the deal and they met them the opposition that seems to me more than halfway but that doesn't mean that it gets done if a given country in this case the UK wants to Market there they're in a better position to block it then the United States I don't know how it turns out but if it doesn't go through I don't think it's through any short coming by either Microsoft or Activision not everything that should happen does happen but that's that's life in the big city sure I would say and uh what we do will depend on a lot of things what we now know exactly what Buffett did he sold and if you look at the Activision share price from when he bought versus when he sold the crazy thing is Buffett probably didn't even lose money if he bought after the Microsoft announcement he would have paid roughly eighty dollars per share but across Q2 the lowest the stock got was roughly 76 dollars so it's crazy that the 17 spread between the share price and the proposed acquisition price back in q1 2022 almost acted like a little margin of safety where even after the FTC and the CMA announced they would look to block the acquisition Buffett was still able to get out of the position relatively unscathed but hold on a second I know what you're probably thinking right now Buffett only sold 70 percent of his stake why am I making these Grand conclusions that he's sold out didn't he still hold some some shares well the answer is no he no longer holds any shares but Berkshire Hathaway still does why well because of Ted or Todd remember when looking at Berkshire Hathaway there are three people represented in the 13f there's Warren Buffett then there's Todd Combs and Ted weschler Warren Buffett makes the big Behemoth Investments and Ted and Todd both manage roughly 15 billion dollars each now Buffett started buying Activision back in q1 of 2022 right well have a look at this Berkshire Hathaway actually bought 14 million 658 121 Activision shares in Q4 of 2021 so either Ted or Todd already built a position in the company for different reasons the quarter before the Microsoft announcement and fast forward to today look at their current 13f filing they hold exactly 14 658 121 Activision shares now AKA Ted or Todd are still holding onto their shares but Buffett has decided to sell his position so with that said we come to the end of Warren Buffett's involvement with the Activision Blizzard Saga be interesting to note that despite this one not going as smoothly as he expected he probably didn't lose money although if you are still a shareholder yourself in Activision Blizzard I wouldn't necessarily come to the conclusion that the Microsoft Activision merger won't go through now just because Warren Buffett sold Warren Buffett mainly just exits when he no longer knows what the outcome will be but in all honesty since he left the position the market has become increasingly sure that this acquisition will go through the stock price has now closed up to around 90 so about a five percent spread a lot closer to the 95 per share offer from Microsoft but with that said let's move on to some of the other notable stories from Buffett's 13f Berkshire also reduced seven percent in Chevron which is actually quite a substantial move considering that position is around 20 billion dollars I'm not exactly sure why we know that Buffett doesn't usually trim positions so maybe this is to do with tax management or maybe he's just clearing some profit off the table remember it was in q1 of last year that Buffett bought really heavily into Chevron and the stock is up roughly 25 from that quarter to last quarter so he could just be locking in some profit on some of those shares or even some of the shares he bought earlier than that Berkshire also continued their buying spree of Occidental Petroleum with another sixth largest position in the Berkshire portfolio he's bought oxy shares now in five out of the last six quarters and get this he owns more than 25 of the entire company now I've covered this one in more depth previously so I won't go too much into it now the short version of the story is Buffett looked into the company and was very impressed with the management he noted the CEO Vicki hollab was doing exactly what Buffett would do with the company and he jumped in as he thought the business was high quality and a better place to park his money than simply keeping it in cash or treasury bonds also worth noting the business is paying solid dividends and returning value to continuing shareholders via shared BuyBacks and as we know Buffett is a bit of a sucker for extra money in his pocket for doing absolutely nothing I also want to reiterate the Buffett's movements in the oil stocks does not represent his prediction on where he thinks oil prices are headed in the short term a lot of people saw him buy into the oil companies and took this as a big bet on high oil prices moving forward but Buffett has actually said previously that quote if we were in an oil stock it's because we think it offers a lot of value at this price but it does not mean that we think the price of oil is going up if we thought oil was going up we could buy oil Futures so definitely don't take his moves in oil companies as a sign of oil prices but with that said that was Buffett's moves in the oil stocks and then beyond on that Berkshire also added 25 to Capital One Financial reduced 39 in Celanese halved their General Motors position reduced 60 in Globe Life sold out of McKesson Martian McLennan and vertese energy and then they bought three new stocks DR Horton NVR and Lena court but have a look at this when you switch to portfolio view all of a sudden those moves get put into context the Chevron and oxy changes are right up the top the Activision stake was cut from position number nine GM was cut from position number 17 but apart from that the rest of the moves are happening way down in the bottom half of the portfolio meaning they're not really significant to The Berkshire portfolio overall for example the biggest new buy this quarter was Dr Horton which represents just 0.21 of the Berkshire portfolio what this means in reality is that these new buyers are again likely Ted or Todd as Buffett just wouldn't be bothering with moves that affect the portfolio so little so that's most of the major news out of Berkshire Hathaway's 13f filing this quarter the only other thing I wanted to briefly mention is more of a milestone than a bit of news and that is that Apple has now grown so much since 2016 that the investment Buffett made is now over 50 percent of the Berkshire Hathaway U.S portfolio we have to show the pie chart on that look at how much of an outlier apple is versus all the other stocks in the portfolio now the next largest stock is Bank of America at 8.51 so absolutely crazy how much that investment has grown although remember if you're perhaps someone that looks at that waiting and gets a little bit nervous while I do agree that one stock occupying over 50 of your portfolio is definitely a little bit nerve-wracking we do have to remember that this is just berkshire's us stock portfolio and if you read any of Buffett's annual letters you quickly realize that it's not something to really worry about because ultimately the stock portfolio represents just one part of berkshire's business remember they also have a huge set of insurance businesses they have a massive railroad business they have Berkshire Hathaway energy and then on top of those things they have a large investment in apple and smaller investments in other businesses they're definitely not 100 all in on Apple stock although yes it is a substantial element of berkshire's overall business at this point anyway with that said that is everything Warren Buffett bought and sold in Q2 of 2023.
thanks very much for watching guys please leave a like if you did enjoy subscribe if you'd like to see more and with that said I'll see you guys in the next video
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