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Hello everyone. Today the market rose a little, we reached the 21-day and 55-day moving averages, stopped right at them and after the close of trading began to fall a little, but there was a gap up and a small increase. Momentum moves with him. Let's take a look at all the charts and decide what to expect tomorrow.
Do me a favor: like, subscribe, and watch the video to the end to support the channel. And let's begin. From the news: Jamie Dimon said he doesn't want to buy markets, stocks, or Treasuries at current prices. Markets underestimate risks. And I've been saying this for a long time. So let's discuss his opinion.
He says that underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks could shake markets over time. And, honestly, it's not "can't ", right? It will happen. The question is when, because markets cannot grow forever in one direction, as they have in the past few years. He also notes: I really think these risks are greater than people realize.
Tensions between the US and China are still interesting . This topic has taken a back seat due to events in the Middle East. Growing military spending, increasing government deficit. We've been saying for a long time that this is a big problem . And governments simply don't care . They won't fix it.
They refuse to do it. They are trying to solve this in other ways. In fact, they are devaluing the currency in an attempt to keep up with spending, but they are failing. Retribution is inevitable. The question, of course, is when. It is very disappointing to watch this slow car crash that is the financial stability of the US government.
But again, we continue to spend money, while people say: we need to stop. We need to fix everything. There are many economic risks, but no one wants to work and cut costs where necessary. And all this against the backdrop of the fact that JP Morgan Chase continues to show stunning profits: growth in trading profits, investment bank revenues - everything looks great at JP Morgan .
The S&P is up almost 10% this year. Consumers continue to spend, and inflation has slowed slightly. I think that's a bit of an exaggeration, but he points out: it takes one more straw to break the camel's back and reach a tipping point. Even with the start of a new war, this may not be enough. AI cycle, can we continue spending at this rate?
He says that he personally is not interested in long-term Treasury bonds. 10-year bonds should probably be at 4 to 4.5%. He says, "I think we're about there , between four and four and a half percent ." We may look at this later, but he says he thinks some individual stocks are a great investment, but he wouldn't buy the broader market.
Moving on to the Fear and Greed Index, it rose to 41 from 37. A small step up, as expected. Fear still reigns on the momentum indicator. The force doesn't move at all . Market breadth continues to deteriorate almost daily. The put-call ratio remains elevated. Today it has hardly changed . And if you look at volatility, it has decreased.
This is logical given the small growth. The demand for “ safe havens” is growing, stopping near the zero mark and moving upwards. It's still neutral there. And then there is the demand for junk bonds. It continues to decline and now we are in the greed zone. The first indicator that is in the greed zone.
Moving on to the charts: S&P rose a little less than 1%, the 9 -day exponential moving average acts as a resistance zone around 74,940. We entered this zone and stopped. Same here, 2155 on the 4-hour chart. We touched these levels and stopped almost point by point. And now we're starting to see a little bit of a structural drift downward, right?
We said that the 55-day exponential moving average would hold on the daily chart. Touched this area. We are now in the middle of the range . It can go in any direction. The momentum became "bullish". RSI is stuck at the simple moving average level. Consolidation, breakout, a kind of "breakout-retest- breakout" structure.
Same here. Breakout-retest-breakout type structure . This is what I expect to see. But as we said yesterday, this 55- day moving average will take some time to catch up. And once that happens, I think we will see an acceleration of the decline. Moving on to the daily chart on tasty charts, you can see this resistance area here.
Just like here, there was a setback. It can be argued that a “minimum— higher minimum” structure has formed here. I like it. I think that's quite likely. Will we push back to that first ATR band again? 75360—that would be the same zone. Same as where we were before. This would be a " minimum-higher minimum" structure.
This could also be a potentially strange " bullish" triangle . This is a rather strange pattern overall. Here you have a double bottom-like structure with a midpoint, and the breakout occurs under bearish conditions. Trading volume was low today. So, will there be any continuation of the movement? You can see that these bars still show a clear downtrend.
Typically, such bands do not break upward when they are in such a downtrend . It looks like this structure, doesn't it? When there is a bottom, you rise to these downtrend bands, then you see a pullback, and after that the bands start to level out as they grow. And when they become flat, they can start to turn up along with the price.
Right now they still have a fairly pronounced downward trend. So we should expect at least one more pullback to give them time to level out a bit, similar to what we're seeing here, right? Downtrend, growth to bands, divergence, leveling, consolidation. And now we have flat lower ATR bands. This creates more opportunities for upward movement.
Yes? So, we have grown, the upper band is pointing upwards. The lower bands are also heading upwards on the hourly chart. This is a good example of how smaller timeframes are starting to turn up. This may eventually extend to longer timeframes, but conditions are mixed right now. On the short timeframe, there is a bullish trend.
All medium and long-term timeframes are still bearish. Let's move on to NASDAQ. The NASDAQ was mostly up overnight. Here you can see that the over-the-counter session was shaky, even bearish, and then we opened with a gap up and reached 21. During the session itself, the movement was insignificant, only about a quarter of a percent.
Pretty static throughout the day, but up 1.85% overall thanks to yesterday's gap. It doesn't actually change the overall structure. However, 21 continues to go down, 9 is also down, and 21 is above 9, indicating increasing bearish sentiment. It is likely that tomorrow the 21 will cross the 55 EMA, further solidifying the downtrend structure.
Also looking at this SMA, we are right next to it now. It is in a downward trend. We have not yet reached oversold conditions, which is quite logical. We barely got out of this consolidation. Again , I believe the price will go down. Therefore, I take any bullish deals with caution. The price could well reach the 55 EMA around 713, which would be interesting.
We are currently experiencing difficulties in this area of consolidation lows. The momentum, as I said, is still a bit " bullish" on short timeframes, but I expect a decline on medium-term ones . Moving on to NASDAQ in Tasty Charts. Again, the same structure. High, lower high, even lower high. Today we got a flat trailing stop.
There has been a downward trend in the last few days. Today it was flat. Still holding in the 74489 area. zone. Looking at the 4-hour chart, conditions are still bearish . 71340—the same zone we were talking about. The EMA 71355 zone is right there. Area 71350. The same structure on the ATR bands: a downtrend, an attempt to grow within the falling bands.
They are starting to level out a bit. The top bands are not very even, but the bottom ones are flattening out a bit. Interesting. The volume is still small. We got a big spike in volume on the green candle. So far, it has given a good sequel. So interesting. I'm not going to change my thesis for now.
Looking at the hourly chart, yesterday we said that it had risen enough to enter bullish conditions. We dropped to the trailing stop during the over-the-counter session at 5:00-6:00 PM. Found support in this area around 69377. And then look at the overnight rise. Just straight candles from 694 to 704.
Maybe you should start following the overnight session to understand what is happening. Really very powerful straight candles. Interesting. And an interesting wick on a candle at 7 am. He's probably not real. I didn't see this on the Trading View charts, but either way, a long wick is below. This continues to be a bullish signal.
Pushed to the top lane. It stopped near the 8 EMA. I opened a very short-term short position here. Found support at level nine. I made a small profit, but I didn't want to stay short until the close because in the short term it looks quite " bullish". I think this could last at least another day. Moving on to Russell and Dow.
Russell rose 1.45%, breaking through the 295 level. It closed well above it . The 21 EMA resistance zone right next to my alert at 296.84 could be another resistance zone. This has been the last few times we've touched on the 21 EMA and VWAP, but you never know for sure. If we break above, we might be looking at the 300 area.
If you bought at 295, that's a good deal. Just keep an eye on the 21 EMA area as a potential resistance level. If you look at the Dow, it's also up, a little more than half a percent. The momentum here is becoming bullish again. The RSI is also slightly returning to a bullish state. Still below the SMA, but could catch up to it.
The price returned above this trend structure after a downward breakout. So, it was a small misstep. Again, the thesis is the same. The 9 and 21 EMAs act as resistance from above. If we go higher, we should expect a return to the upper structure, almost to historical highs, around 531–532. Moving on to MAG 7.
MAG 7 remained unchanged for the day : the candlestick shadows reached the same resistance level as the last two days, then rebounded and are now drifting downwards. Again, the same "bearish" thesis I was talking about: higher minimum, top model, rejection of growth. In my opinion, it will eventually fall, but so far it hasn't happened.
Moving on to Apple and Microsoft. Apple rose by a third of a percent during the day, but gave it all back after the market closed. Yesterday's bearish candle seems to be affecting Apple a little more. A rollback in time is possible, as we have already seen here. A few days of sideways movement before the rise, but the momentum is fading.
RSI is weakening slightly. It is worth paying attention to this. But Microsoft has an inside bar from the 55 EMA. We said it was resistance, and it continues to be so . The price did not reach the level before the sell-off, and after the close it drifted downwards. Moving on to Tesla and Nvidia. Tesla rose 2.5%, bouncing off the same level.
That is, from 369.33. You could buy it there yesterday . I wouldn't advise it, but even at the opening the price was 371.17. So, about a dollar off the level. That's about $2 off the level. Not a bad risk-reward ratio. The high of the day was 384.07. My level was 384.29. You would have recorded a profit, a pretty good deal for the day if you had been following.
I haven't been following Tesla, but it's interesting. I like this level. The trade is now complete. At least from a risk-reward perspective, until the price breaks above this level or returns to test support. It will be interesting. But the momentum there is becoming "bullish." All is not lost yet. The level has not been broken, as I feared.
So it's potentially a double bottom right now. Next, let's look at Nvidia: support was found in the area of the 21-day exponential moving average and VWAP. Yesterday there was a small growth of a quarter, today there was a significant gap up, after which there was stagnation at the level of plus 2%, and after the close of trading the price decreased slightly.
I would maintain a neutral position for now. Something like a "head and shoulders" is forming here: left shoulder, head and right shoulder. The neckline is the level at which I have a notification. If we can consolidate higher, I think there will be significant movement. But I don't like it yet. The risk-reward ratio is difficult for me.
Moving on to consumer staples and discretionary goods. Essential goods fell by about 1%. Discretionary goods rose by about a quarter. Interesting gap and drop here in the essential goods sector . A large outward turn. It continues to fall. Nothing special is happening there. I think we'll probably get a lower but higher minimum.
In any case, the essential goods sector is stuck here for a while . It does not show activity, but grows very slowly. So, we should see a higher low and possibly a higher high. Regarding discretionary goods : we see that they have not fallen to that level, so the mood is a bit " bullish". I still expect them to reach that level before anything changes.
Let's move on to market width. Market breadth continues to deteriorate. The third day in a row of gap and decline along the 20- day moving average. Still expecting a drop to 46, and potentially to 36 at the next level. Momentum is bearish, RSI is bearish for both indicators. This usually indicates that the rally will fail.
The market usually cannot grow steadily when the market width is falling. So expect the decline to continue. Expect the markets to follow suit in the near future. Let's move on to bond yields. Profitability shows good growth. You see four consecutive days of bullish trend in 2- year and 10-year bonds, well above the 4.5% level we talked about.
I'm not sure what Jamie Dimon meant when he said he was n't interested in Treasury bonds when 10-year notes were in the 4–4.5% range, even though they are now at 4.6%. I would say that ultimately profitability should increase a little. We need a little more curvature on this graph. 2-year-olds are at 4.25, and 10-year-olds are only at 4.6.
So, probably need a little higher. Today, there is also a bullish sentiment here. It looks like we will get a breakout above this previous high. And if this continues, it will put pressure on the markets. Moving on to the dollar, it continues to show a bullish trend, approaching the 101.25 level. The momentum is becoming bullish, the RSI is breaking through the level upwards.
The price should break through this level and continue, perhaps even to 102.98. It looks like this bullish flag will start to break through soon. Everything looks good with the dollar. It continues to grow. Let's move on to JNK and TLT. Yields rose , bonds fell. This continues to follow this pattern.
Momentum is bearish, RSI is bearish. The price of TLT will probably drop to this low now. Be patient for this. JNK is likely to break the 95.61 level. Let's move on to volatility. Volatility has dropped to the support zone. The momentum fades, the RSI fades. Let's see if this zone will hold up or not.
In any case, she has. Then there will be a minimum, a higher minimum, and then we'll see what happens. In my opinion, there should be a " bullish" structure here, at least for a while. Moving on to my accounts, I made one very quick trade with a small profit. Here you see 228, bought them for 215. It was a 712 call option at about 2:00 p.m.
140 for 240. So, I held him for an hour. It's longer than I thought, but I missed a better moment to get out. I only made $26 from this. This is normal. During the session, the NASDAQ did not show strong movements. So this puts me in a more difficult situation to make money since I've been day trading lately.
So, in any case, I don't mind. Small profit per day. You can't be angry about that . Let us know in the comments what you think about Jamie Dimon's statements. Is he right, or are you just buying stocks as fast as you can? What are you doing with your money now? Let me know. In the meantime, please like and subscribe if this video was useful to you .
Be sure to click the bell so you don't miss future releases. Of course, this is not financial advice. All this is for entertainment purposes only. I wish you success in trading and a wonderful day!
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