원문 보기
So, Michael Burr is selling Micron Technologies shares. What's going on, guys? This is Ricky from Tackle Solutions with a brief market overview, but more from the perspective of Michael Burr . I think a lot of people are talking about this . I would like to share some details that I learned. And again , if you want to share something you learned about Michael Buhr's short position, feel free to share it in the comments section.
With that in mind, it's clear that just because he decided to sell Michael Buhr's stock doesn't mean you should too . He has been wrong many times in the past. Apparently he's very well known for his big short positions, meaning he burst the housing bubble and made his clients hundreds of millions of dollars, right?
That's how he really proved himself. And while he had previously exposed overbought and overvalued stocks, there were many instances when things didn't quite go according to plan. So again , no one has a 100% guarantee of success. It's just an idea. But I like it when he shares his thoughts because that's how I perceive it, and I can dig a little deeper and see if I can agree with it or if it just doesn't make sense to me.
Good. Let's get straight to the point. I sincerely hope you enjoy this video. If so, . So, Michael Baer sells Micron, adding to his short positions in Nvidia and Applied Materials against chip stocks . So, on some details, a little disclosure for those who don't know, Michael Baer no longer runs a public company.
So he no longer needs to publicly disclose it to the SEC. This was actually posted on his Substack, which is something like, I don't know what to call it ? Something like a private channel where people pay a subscription to have access to, perhaps, his thoughts and his comments. Um, with that in mind, it says: “Michael Burr, founder of Scion Asset Management, made famous by his short pig position, has disclosed a new short position against Micron Technologies.
Um, in a Substack post from July 2, literally yesterday, Burr stated that puts seem expensive, so he is selling the stock outright short and will add puts if volatility decreases. He set his disclosed entry at $151.87 (87 cents) per share. So, it looks like this is not an aggressive short position. It seems he is open to the idea of adding more if the direction becomes favorable.
But he also didn't disclose the size of his short position, right? Again, he doesn't need to do this anymore. For those who don't know, Micron has risen more than 200% in 2026 alone, from lows of $290 per share to highs that it shows are $1255, but in reality it has reached highs of 1330 during extended hours.
So, again , this is one of the best promotions." 2026. While it has an amazing price and performance, I want to share one thing with you: if we use the Investing Pro software and just go by the current fundamentals that this company reports, then according to the fair value analyst, this company claims that there is a 6.5% decline.
So, you know, not a huge decrease. The P-factor isn't very expensive compared to its competitors, right? It is 21.8 times its earnings, and its forward P ratio is even lower or even lower, meaning you are paying a smaller premium, and that is because this company generates not only great revenue , but also great profits.
Net profit is $50 billion. This company has a whopping market capitalization of $1.1 trillion. So why would Michael Burr, if he saw that it had strong fundamentals, consider selling a stock that is not only showing strong results in 2026, but is also growing fundamentally? Something is wrong here, isn't it?
It's not just...It's overbought stocks. They are also fundamentally reliable. So what does it give? Right? And again, when you dig a little deeper and you start to understand the reason for it, right? This is one thing you might want to consider. He says he is apparently claiming that AI-related stocks could experience a 30% correction.
And when you factor that in, given that U.S. markets are closed for the holidays, the disclosure hits a market where all of Bura's target companies have risen since the start of the year. His thesis is based on cycle history and technical stretch performance. So, Micron shares are up 242 %, drawing attention to that 242% year-to-date through July 2, with a market cap of nearly $1.17 trillion.
Michael Burr claims that growth has reached historically extreme levels , and Micron shares have extended above the 200 moving average. Is that right? The 200 moving average is well above it. So, let's go back. Stocks have extended above the 200-day moving average more than at any point since 1984, even during the peak.
Burr said that Micron defines cyclicality like no other. Citing 34 drawdowns of over 30% in 42 years. So he says that in 42 years, Micron has adjusted at least 30% from its current state 34 times in 42 years. So again , this doesn't necessarily have to happen. Obviously , each scenario is different, but the median return on invested capital is 4% and the return on equity is 7%.
Which he called frankly horrible. He added that Micron destroys capital every three quarters and free cash flow is negative 48% of the time. In his opinion, this step reflects the fear of losing something. So he says there's a lot of FOMO (fear of missing out) buying going on, and a larger overall dynamic around the sell-off of high-speed HBM memory through 2026.
The timing is equally ironic, considering President Trump praised Micron for committing $250 million to Trump's accounts, which will be relaunched tomorrow. Uh, we can talk about that at the end of the video. Sanjay's employee has allocated over 200 billion in memory investments in the US. The bullish scenario remains impressive.
Micron posted third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion , up 346% from last year. So, again , incredibly strong fundamentals. Estimated revenue for the fourth quarter is approximately $50 billion according to AK's filing. So this reflects the strategic value of memory in the age of artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate an average price target for MU shares at 14, almost $1,500, with 30 "buy" ratings and nine "strong buy" ratings. So I'm only hearing about Micron because that's what I really want to focus on. He's talked about Nvidia before. Obviously, that did n't turn out very well. Hmm, what can investors look at now.
But it was early to react cyclically to calls, even though short sellers face unlimited risk of loss, which, ahem, is true. Theoretically speaking, there is no limit to how high a stock can go. And again, knowing Micron's history, it went up from, you know, how much is that? Less than $100 a share back in 2004, hmm, really.
2005, um, up to 1300. So, theoretically speaking, it's obvious that stocks can continue to rise if the price dynamics and fundamentals support it, right? Actually, just price dynamics. With that in mind, this is where you need to be very careful. It is clear that Michael Boer knows how to manage and mitigate risks.
So again, for beginners, selling short positions involves more risk. If you're a bad risk manager, to be honest, you probably shouldn't be shorting stocks, right? Structurally growing topics can "leak" and increase the periods before the thesis actually pays off. So the idea is that Michael Burr is prone to early selling, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, right?
Because when you sell stocks short, you are borrowing the stock. So this can really work against you, especially if you use margin , right? Investors following the debate may want to look at HBM's pricing and comments on scaling hyper-asset capital expenditures. They may also be looking at Micron's fourth-quarter earnings report, which is again far from today, and which is targeting $50.
billion in revenue and $1 billion in revenue. This could either expand the thesis about artificial intelligence memory or expose the secclassicism that Bohr emphasizes. Careful position sizing on both sides seems prudent, given that Micron stock has a beta of 2.17. Burom's disclosure could change sentiment among traders who track his positioning.
Although his thesis remains more of an opinion than a certainty, which is very true. The next profit cycle across the chip supply chain could determine whether this contrarian bet is successful or if it comes too soon. So my main takeaway from all of this is that semiconductor stocks are incredibly hot.
They are the best sector in the market for 2026. It is incredibly risky to take a heavy short position right now. With that in mind, the markets are in the very early stages of what is possible, right? If you go to QQQ and click on the daily chart, they are still testing support. There is no breakdown of support, there is no breakdown structure.
The markets are bullish right now . If we really start to see a breakdown of support, and yes, we have n't broken that support since April. With that in mind, if we do see a support breakout and the markets start to correct, then at this point, yes, it could be a perfect time for a change in sentiment.
Semiconductors can obviously be oversold technically in a shorter time frame, right? And maybe they need a pushback. It seems that Michael Burr is looking for a 30% correction. I honestly don't think its average price of 1.50 is very attractive. It was trading at 1200 not long ago. Hmm, I mean, it could have literally been last week if I'm not mistaken.
Yes. So, $11 for 1200. So I don't really care where his average price is, or what he's selling short right now . I think what he's saying is what we've all been thinking about is that Micron, while it's basically a great company that's doing great in 2025 and 2026 , hasn't it grown too fast? And if you zoom out, different time frames give you...different perspectives; you can see how overextended it is and what kind of gap it has formed from the moving average.
So, is it overbought enough that even if it corrects 30% from its highs, it won't? If we take that into account, what does it even look like? A 30% correction from the highs is 860. I mean, we've kind of tested this support. I don't think it's anything incredible , especially knowing its average price of 50.
I mean, it's not going to be able to capture this full movement, right? I think I can say for most of us that if markets in general, that's my biggest focus right now. If the markets in general, QQQ and S&P 500 really start to sell off and break through this support on the daily chart and start to form lower lows, which has n't happened since April.
If we do get that support breakout, I would feel more comfortable taking a short position in companies like Micron for a short period of time because yes, in a very short period of time...They have gone up over time. So much so that technically they have become so overbought that they may have to correct a bit and drop 30%.
While this may be bad for all those who bought at very overbought levels, it is bad and unpleasant for them. But people like us can make a little money when stocks sell. But let's always remind ourselves that you always make the most money by buying stocks, especially in fundamentally sound companies.
So again, if you're a newbie and you're terrible at risk management, and you know for yourself that if you're bad at risk management, don't even buy short. I would literally say: stay with minimal money or stay with cash, let the sale happen , and then buy whatever you're interested in. Stocks of a semiconductor company that you see as valuable.
I would like to invest in Micron, especially if the stock becomes oversold enough that I can get it for a decent price. I like that fundamentally they are growing as much as they are technically, based on their price. And that's what fascinates me the most, is that both...could be right. Is this a great company?
But yes, in such a short period of time, it has also achieved a significant breakout, and a lot of that, let's be honest, is based on Trump's tweets and his "deal/ no deal" with Iran, which has lifted markets to elevated levels that they may no longer be able to sustain due to inflation and labor market concerns.
So again , right now the Federal Reserve may be expecting interest rates to rise instead of fall. Something that could also be more bearish than bullish. The biggest indicator for me would be a break of support on QQQ or an active sell-off in the S&P 500 on the daily chart. And then I look at it as an incubator effect.
When the overall markets start to sell off, the most overvalued stocks will always adjust the most. And at this point I can definitely see a 30% correction. And then, after that happens, I would like, after I close out my little short sale on Micron, I would like to even start buying dips on good semiconductors early.
companies. Not Intel. Not for me. I just don't like this company because it loses money every year . But I like Micron. I like, um, a few others that I would like to invest in , especially for my kids, um, since this whole AI boom is still going on. So, these are my thoughts. I would like to address Michael Burr and his perspective a little.
I remind you, yes, he was right in the past, but he was wrong many times . If you are terrible at risk management, don't buy short positions. There's nothing wrong with just staying with cash and waiting for deals to come your way. But that's the part that should get you excited, is that again, there are opportunities among us in both the clean scenario and the bullish scenario, and you know, only time will tell, right, and that's the part that's super- super cool.
With that in mind, again, if you ever want to spend time planning your trade, we offer a free risk calculator. And this will allow you to calculate your entry, your stop loss, your profit, take profit , the number of... shares. And even before you make a trade, you will be presented with a risk-reward ratio, how much you can earn and how much you can potentially lose.
I think too many traders focus on how much money they can make, but not enough on how much risk you have on each trade. And again, these are all things you can spend time on, planning your deals before actually executing them. And it is available on our LPP homepage. It's free. The second link is in the description below.
Also, for all our parents, including me, I just had my second child in 2025. I want to remind you that Trump's accounts will be launched tomorrow. I created this Heritage Gap page and all it will be is a series of videos that will teach parents how to apply for $1,000 Trump bills if you have a child after 2025 through 2028, I think.
You can apply for $1,000 and it's just an investment account. Our goal is to help 1,000 parents start investing. It will be free. It will just be a series of videos, for example via YouTube, that will be emailed to you and then you can watch them and if you want to apply, you can. That's all. Good. I'm just teaching parents how to apply.
So, again , that would be heritagegap.com . You're free to apply once this goes live and we start learning more about how it all works. I will definitely make this video series and send it to all of you new parents. In addition, again , as I said, every morning right at the market opening, our LPP team works with them every day.
If you ever want to tune in to our live trading session, this is our closed group and is only available to our LPP team. The second link is below if you want to learn more about it . And again , we have a small discount for you on the Independence Day sale. I'm grateful to you guys. time. I hope and wish you guys a wonderful Independence Day weekend.
Be careful. Don't lose any hands. And, as always, let's make sure we end the year on a green note. Take care, team.
Comments 0