저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood은 비트코인이 아직 강세장 초입이라 늦지 않았다고 주장하며, 관세 충격 이후 주식시장도 벽을 타고 오르는 건전한 강세장이라고 봄. 롤링 리세션이 끝나고 생산성 향상으로 인플레이션이 예상보다 크게 낮아지며 금리가 내려갈 것으로 전망. 기술주 집중에서 시장 확산(broadening)으로 전환 중이라고 언급. 비트코인은 기관 자금 유입으로 3개월 내 큰 상승(포물선적 상승)을 기대. 주식 지수 관련 구체 수치 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
We are still in a bull market for Bitcoin. If you're buying Bitcoin today, it's still early. I don't think it's too late. So, if you have zero exposure to Bitcoin and you feel like you missed it, 95% of investors have zero Bitcoin exposure. Bitcoin really held its own. I think it's still in the bull market as our onchain analytics suggest.
And I do think you can say the same now about the equity markets. A lot of investors were faked out during the tariff turmoil. I really love bull markets like this uh because what's happening is the equity market is climbing a wall of worry. And what's been fantastic about this time around is it has not been an unhealthy bull market like it really was from 23 to 24 at its extremes.
The market is broadening out as the market gears up for the coming bull run for Bitcoin. We hear from Kathy Wood and her current market outlook and predictions for crypto and Bitcoin in the weeks ahead. As the momentum is building and the institutions are quietly positioning themselves, Wood says the next phase of the crypto cycle is critical and she's stacking big bets in her portfolio right now.
With the next bull market and with crypto and technology being the biggest investments this year, Kathy Woods says she's remaining bullish on digital assets after increasing her position size during the last bare market. Embracing an unyielding enthusiasm for the crypto realm, Kathy Wood . She urges investors to capitalize on the opportunities presented during market downturns as well.
Ever since Bitcoin tumbled from its all-time high, the cryptocurrency market has struggled to regain its footing, leaving investors anticipating a substantial bounce back. However, Kathy Kathy Wood as she gives her market outlook and prediction for the days and weeks ahead as we're we believe reaching the end of this rolling recession with some certainty on tariffs uh the tax package.
So the big beautiful bill and we do believe will launch uh from a rolling recession uh into a rolling recovery uh that we think will gather momentum as we're exiting this year into next year uh with productivity uh the big surprise uh and real GDP growth benefiting. We also think the other surprise will be inflation much lower than expected because of productivity.
Now a lot of people asso associate real GDP growth with higher inflation. The higher the growth the higher inflation. Uh if you look at history that's absolutely wrong. Uh the higher the growth the higher the productivity and productivity is a potent anti-inflationary force. Uh and we think that's going to be the case this time perhaps more than ever because of all of the deflationary undercurrents associated with the explosion in uh new technologies uh catalyzed especially uh today by AI which is as we've gone over in the past extremely deflationary good deflation the more costs fall and prices fall the more units explode.
Uh that that is how we usually exit uh recessions or in this case a rolling recession and we think this uh time will be no different except it will be more exaggerated than usual. So we think that the tide is turning here and um and we think the surprises could be on the low side of expectations meaning the deficit shrinking as a percent of GDP more than people expect.
Uh here you can see what I mentioned about M2. M2 is closing in on 5% growth. That's uh depicted in the purple line here. But if you take a look over history at this chart, you'll see that even that rate is at the lower end of what we've experienced over the years. Now, what's also interesting on this chart is in the 60s and 70s, you'll see uh M2 growth on a year-over-year basis was outpacing inflation.
It was accommodating all kinds of government spending. you can see that this is this is pushed ahead by 18 months that if we're right the inflation rate is going to come down and and the controversy out there and I think what uh Treasury Secretary Bessant has has been trying to guard against is that we don't end up in another 70s accommodation period which led to terrible inflation doubledigit inflation If we're right, this environment is going to look much more like the '9s where money growth is above the inflation rate and actually inflation tends towards a a a decline and what that will mean is that the velocity of money is slowing down.
Now, the velocity of money, I know I've featured it in charts in the past, but it's been in a secular downtrend since the the a secular decline. The growth rate had been slowing quite a bit, but the actual decline started in the late '9s with the occasional cyclical bump. Well, we've just been through the cyclical bump and velocity is starting to turn down again.
So that trend is important. If it's still in place, then money growth at this level is not at all a problem in terms of in terms of uh feeding inflation. Velocity is the rate at which money turns over. And why would it decline? Well, if we're right and inflation is much lower than expected and interest rates will follow, then the attitude is, well, I don't have to rush now to buy anything because inflation and interest rates are coming down.
Kathy says it's the fastest pace of adoption of any investable asset in all of human history. . Kathy has been stressing to investors for months that all the factors are beginning to align right now, a period characterized by parabolic moves upwards in crypto prices. I think we have been um climbing a wall of worry.
I mean, a lot of people expected tariffs and the controversy between the Fed and the president to to really shake markets up and of course there has been some volatility. Uh but uh these are the kinds of bull markets that I think are are the most durable. When the market climbs through all of that controversy, um it's really signaling something.
And I think the the the things that it is signaling are interest rates probably are coming down. Uh and if I think what many people are are not focused on in the in the inflation statistics are the housing numbers. Uh and they get in there with a long lag. uh we think that uh that the shift or the concentration towards just a very few stocks which was a very unhealthy bull market uh that that is changing and the market is broadening out uh and I think deregulation is uh is is probably one of the most important things that this administration is doing.
We've been pretty consistent on this idea of we've been through a rolling recession. If you look at housing, which is actually having a little bit of a relapse today, housing uh plummeted in 2022 when interest rates shot up and it has not recovered. Manufacturing has not recovered. Uh uh and and so we do believe that they will recover as interest rates come down, deregulation takes hold, uh some certainty about tax cuts and so forth.
um uh occur including immediate expensing perhaps of capital goods which would be very positive. So we think we'll move from a a rolling recession into a recovery. Uh but what what happens early in a recovery if that's if you'll allow me to call this that I know many people think we never went into any kind of slump but we have sector by sector.
What typically happens when you come out of a recovery is productivity kicks in uh because companies have been very conservative uh and especially amid all of the uncertainty. So productivity kicks in and actually drives inflation down much lower than anybody anticipates. Uh and I think that's going to happen this time as well which is not normal and you can see how abnormal uh it has been.
Um, we've had that inversion in place pretty much since the Fed started jacking interest rates up dramatically. The most dramatic move ever in percentage terms uh in percentage change terms. Uh, and it's been inverted ever since then. And this is one reason we believe we've been in a rolling recession.
uh and the the the headline numbers obfiscate this rolling recession. But if you go sector by sector, manufacturing down and out, housing down and out, small businesses uh constrained uh by all kinds of metrics, um monetary policy is too tight. So here is real GDP versus uh productivity. uh real GDP is in the purple.
Uh and you can see how this rolling recession has been obfiscated. I think uh holding real GDP growth up over the last few years as housing has crashed and manufacturing has has really been under a lot of stress uh ha has been the government sector and now that's starting to give way and the high income uh uh part of consumer and we know from sentiment indicators that their sentiment has diminished as well with all the uncertainty around tariffs.
s uh and geopolitical risks. So, we think the bias here in this number is uh down. You can see on a year-over-year basis, even during recessions, look at uh the early 90s. Um that was the SNL recession. It barely went down in the tech and telecom bust. It didn't go down. Uh we needed uh two shocks. the the global financial crisis caused by mortgages uh and COVID to get it down in any big way.
Um you can also see productivity uh you can see how it picked up in the '9s. One of the reasons that uh as the internet was taking off, one of the reasons inflation did stay very low. Uh and you can see it it has been languishing uh uh at a fairly low level relative to where what we enjoyed during the late '9s, we think we're going back to that level and well beyond in a in a secular sense.
Kathy Wood points out with real money now flowing in, she emphasizes that the crypto market has become more significant than ever. Institutional investors are driving the price of cryptocurrency, which will yield massive gains in the next three months. Wood believes this will underscore Bitcoin's enduring relevance as an asset and as a hedge against currency devaluation.
She anticipates that BTC will continue its parabolic run. Kathy Wood's main focal points this year has also been the movement in crypto legislation in the House, signaling the growing interest in the crypto space. Although crypto legislation might face challenges due to political opposition, Wood advises the company in which she invests to spend heavily now in order to take advantage of huge growth potential.
She estimates that ARK's concentration on technology advancement is worth about 7 to8 trillion or less than 10% of global equities markets. Emerging markets are relying on digital currency and Kathy believes that based on the current market outlook, decentralized finance will take over and user the roles of most financial services companies.
What do you think of Kathy Wood's interview on the current financial market? Comment down below. Thanks so much for watching. Don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe for more content just like this. We'll see you in the next video.
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