저자: KathyWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 10월 10일 바이낸스 소프트웨어 결함발 연쇄청산(약 280억 달러) 이후 조정이 마무리 국면이며, 4년 주기의 하락은 대부분 소진됐다고 주장. 단기적으로 80~90,000달러 횡보 후 상승 전환을 예상. 스테이블코인 확산으로 송금 역할은 비트코인 대신 스테이블코인이 가져갔지만 디지털 금 역할은 여전히 성장 여지가 큼. 금리는 인플레이션이 일시적 공급충격·관세 요인이라 고금리 없이 2026년 성장과 물가안정 공존 가능, 감세·규제완화가 AI·크립토 혁신과 자본 유입을 촉진하고 생산성을 끌어올린다고 봄. 실질 GDP 성장률이 2030년 7%대로 가속될 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
As we assess the ecosystem right now, what we've undergone in the last two to three months are the reverberations after 1010. So 1010 October 10th was what in the crypto world is the flash crash associated with a software glitch on Binance that deleveraged the system to the tune of 28 billion. Uh there are a lot of people hurt and we think that that unwind uh and often when you go through an unwind, Bitcoin's going to be hit the hardest because it's the most liquid crypto asset.
We think that unwind is pretty much behind us. So now the only thing I think investors are worried about especially institutional investors who understand that they must they must examine this as a new asset class. And so they're looking at what's called the 4-year cycle and we have been down. And the question is is the four-year cycle the downside of it over?
We think it's pretty much pushed through. Maybe we flatten out here in the 80 to 90,000 range base here for a while. But we think we think we'll be on our way soon. As the market prepares for another government shutdown and an update on the Clarity Act for crypto, investors eagerly await. And today we hear a new two-part interview with ARK CEO Kathy Wood, who gives her prediction for the first quarter heading into February.
She first highlights a major error and the Fed's biggest mistake, assuming rapid economic growth causes inflation when history shows something completely different. Kathy says recent inflation was driven by temporary supply shocks and tariff effects, and she believes the growth and price stability in 2026 will coexist without permanently high interest rates.
In her view, the window to get this right is rapidly closing and the policy decisions made this year will shape the economy, markets, and innovation for years to come. And Kathy thinks that's the spark that flips the market narrative from rolling recession to rolling recovery. Lower taxes mean higher returns on investment and higher returns attract global capital.
And when capital floods in, productivity surges without inflation. This is where Kathy connects the dots. Deregulation in AI and crypto means innovation can move faster than ever and the cash to fuel it just exploded. The market is also gearing up for the bull run for Bitcoin. As the momentum is building and the institutions are quietly positioning themselves, Wood says everything is about to change.
She says the next phase of the crypto cycle is critical and she's stacking big bets in her portfolio right now. With the next bull market and with crypto and technology being the biggest investments this year, Kathy Wood says she's remaining bullish on digital assets after increasing her position size during the last bare market.
Embracing an unyielding enthusiasm for the crypto realm, Kathy Wood . She urges investors to capitalize on the opportunities presented during market downturns as well. Ever since Bitcoin tumbled from its all-time high, the cryptocurrency market has struggled to regain its footing, leaving investors anticipating a substantial bounce back.
However, Kathy reassures that a long expected surge awaits. Let's get right into the latest interview with Kathy Wood as she gives her market outlook and prediction for the days and weeks ahead. In the Bitcoin realm, it's been controversial this year because we had the draw down after the flash crash at 1010 in October.
We think that a lot of the deleveraging associated with really that was a software glitch I think at Binance that that deleveraging automated deleveraging caused 28 billion dollars of carnage. uh we think we've worked through that now and I think the main question on Bitcoiners minds is okay are we finished with the traditional four-year downdraft every four years a downdraft in uh the cycle we're beginning to think we are uh although we could base here in the 80 to90 uh000 range for a while but we do believe the next inflection is up.
And while I know I got we got a lot of publicity this year because we talked about stable coins usurping, one of the roles we expected Bitcoin to play. Uh now we expected this 10 years ago before stable coins happened on the scene. But uh in terms of remittances and emerging market activity, we're seeing stable coins usurp that role that we thought Bitcoin would would provide.
That doesn't take away though from what we think ultimately will happen to Bitcoin. Bitcoin's role as digital go gold has miles to go. Interestingly, and you'll see this in my new year letter, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been almost non-existent over Bitcoin's life.14. Nonetheless, we do think it is not only a riskon asset thanks to the new technology, but it is also a riskoff asset.
It's a hedge against inflation. Its growth rate is lower than gold's growth rate. And I'll bet gold miners are doing their darnest to get more of that stuff out of the ground now that they're being paid so much more. That can't happen with Bitcoin and Bitcoin miners mathematically metered to top out at 21 million units.
So we do think it will be a very important store of value going forward particularly as we go through the intergenerational wealth wealth transfer that we expect during the next 5 10 15 years. We also had a lot more on DeFi and tokenized assets stable coins just a little bit more uh on that. I think we passed $300 billion globally in stable coins.
We saw a a very large increase in the in tokenization on public blockchains up to uh 19 billion. Now that's a large increase. I think that was a tripling or maybe even more in the last year. But we ultimately think that's going to 11 trillion highlighted by public equities, sovereign debt and bank deposits.
So it's going to be a very big market and we are putting out a DeFi quarterly now to accompany our Bitcoin quarterly. Uh so stay tuned pay a lot of attention there because there's a lot of excitement brewing and there will be a lot of dislocations in the financial sector because of this wholesale shift really to a new technology and so we're pretty excited about that.
The other thing we'd like to highlight is you know these these companies their their productivity the companies that are emerging their productivity is astonishing. Tether for example last year uh we believed I believe delivered $50 million per employee. That is unheard of unheard of. But we think the capitalizing uh on all of these new technologies is going to drive productivity gains much higher than people can even postulate right now.
Kathy say. By the end of 2025, . Kathy has been stressing to investors for months that all the factors are beginning to align right now. A period characterized by parabolic moves upwards in crypto prices. It feels like it's a hype cycle because capital spending in the tech and telecom uh sectors as a percent of GDP is nearly as high now as it was during the tech and telecom bubble.
Uh but if you will remember the tech and telecom bubble laid fiber and most of it remained dark. We've we believe we're fairly early in this cycle. So let me uh before I go on to some of the productivity gains that we see uh also highlight that as a result of this investment boom uh and the increased productivity that we see we believe that real GDP growth will accelerate towards the 7% plus range uh by 2030.
uh the ingredients are all there and it is also a hallmark of technology revolutions that we see a step function change in GDP. Uh the 400 years until 1900 for example uh global GDP averaged 0.6%. And then in the late 1800s, early 1900s, of course, we had the railroads, uh we had telephone, electricity, the internal combustion engine, a technology revolution.
Uh that 0.6% real GDP growth went to 3%. For the last 125 years, uh and so that was a fivefold step up in GDP growth. We're saying maybe a two and a half uhfold step up, but I actually think that's conservative uh given the five innovation platforms evolving at the same time. Robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, uh multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology.
Uh and those innovation platforms are converging. uh and that's what's causing the great acceleration here. We believe that the data center uh in uh infrastructure cycle which uh is at about 500 billion now up from up two and a half times from prej chat GBT that that is actually going to $1.4 trillion dollars per year uh by 2030.
Thank goodness we had the chat GBT moment because that was the aha moment for all of us uh as we were saying wait a minute look what I can do with this this is a miracle and now we see as we've done the analysis and you'll find this in uh in big ideas that that $20 subscription that each of us pays here at ARC we also think and this is this is somewhat controvers sial because software stocks have been going through a very difficult time ironically through this AI boom and it is because of the disruption that AI is going to cause uh to the in particular SAS uh but all legacy software uh we think that uh software will grow the market will grow at roughly 19% in our bare case to uh I think it's 54% per year in our bull case uh up from 14% per year over the last 5 to 10 years.
Uh but you have to get on the right side of change. A lot of those software companies are in the private markets uh OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, uh and and in the public markets. The real success story of course has been in the platform as a service part of the tech stack and that of course the poster child there is Palunteer.
So again have to get on the right side of change. I'm not saying that all the SAS providers are going to be crushed. It's going to be like all legacy players. You'll probably have, you know, the market consolidated and there'll be one very big player. Or as we get into fintech and blockchain technology and DeFi disrupting the traditional financial world, JP Morgan's probably going to be fine.
It is harnessing these technologies and it probably will consolidate the market. And with that, while many people are afraid given the robotics movement of, you know, and AI, everyone being thrown out of jobs, we disagree. Uh we think this is going to be one of the greatest opportunities for the entrepreneurial spirit in history.
uh especially because you can go to chat GBT or Grock and and say you know I think there's a huge unmet need for this that or the other product or service. Think about it. Kathy Wood points out with real money now flowing in. She emphasizes that the crypto market has become more significant than ever.
Institutional investors are driving the price of cryptocurrency which will yield massive gains in the next 3 months. Wood believes this will underscore Bitcoin's enduring relevance as an asset and as a hedge against currency devaluation. She anticipates that BTC will continue its parabolic run. Kathy Wood's main focal points this year has also been the movement in crypto legislation in the House, signaling the growing interest in the crypto space.
Although crypto legislation might face challenges due to political opposition, Wood advises the company in which she invests to spend heavily now in order to take advantage of huge growth potential. She estimates that ARK's concentration on technology advancement is worth about 7 to8 trillion or less than 10% of global equities markets.
Emerging markets are relying on digital currency and Kathy believes that based on the current market outlook, decentralized finance will take over and user the roles of most financial services companies. What do you think of Kathy Wood's interview on the current financial market? Comment down .
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