저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 현재 9만 달러 부근에서 장기적으로 100만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 강세 시나리오를 유지한다. 기관 유입과 희소성, 4년 사이클상 하락폭이 과거보다 작을 것이라고 주장한다. 금은 디스인플레이션과 달러 강세가 오면 과거 1980년대처럼 하락할 수 있다고 보며, 생산성 주도 호황과 기술 혁신 기업에 대한 낙관을 밝힌다. 스테이블코인 확산으로 비트코인의 신흥국 수요 역할은 줄었지만 장기 상방은 유지한다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
We have not changed our bullcase scenario for Bitcoin which is above $1 million from today's levels. Today we're a little below $90,000. So that will be more than a t-fold increase. And our conviction is high because Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a technology revolution really introducing currencies native to the internet, digital currencies.
That is a revolution. It is also a global monetary system that is rules-based. That is a revolution. Bitcoin is mathematically metered to increase to 21 million units and we're closing in on 20 million units right now. So we're moving to a point where I think scarcity value as institutions move in is going to drive the price higher.
It's 2026 and as the market gears up for the coming bull run for Bitcoin, we hear from Kathy Wood and her current market outlook and predictions for crypto and Bitcoin in the weeks ahead. As the momentum is building and the institutions are quietly positioning themselves, Wood says everything is about to change.
She says the next phase of the crypto cycle is critical and she's stacking big bets in her portfolio right now. With the next bull market and with crypto and technology being the biggest investments this year, Kathy Woods says she's remaining bullish on digital assets after increasing her position size during the last bare market.
Embracing an unyielding enthusiasm for the crypto realm, Kathy Wood . She urges investors to capitalize on the opportunities presented during market downturns as well. Ever since Bitcoin tumbled from its all-time high, the cryptocurrency market has struggled to regain its footing, leaving investors anticipating a substantial bounce back.
However, Kathy reassures that a longexpected surge awaits. Let's get right into the latest interview with Kathy Wood as she gives her market outlook and prediction for the days and weeks ahead. This is a new asset class and institutions have to consider it because the correlation of returns among crypto assets versus traditional assets is very low.
And so to put Bitcoin and other digital assets into a portfolio well diversified portfolio will increase returns per unit of risk and that is what institutional investors are always seeking. It's been interesting to see a much more subdued cycle. We haven't seen the burst that we normally do. One of the reasons is those who have been involved in crypto and Bitcoin specifically for the last 10 to 15 years now have learned that there is this four-year cycle.
Now it just so happens there's been a four-year cycle uh two years after the having Bitcoin peaks. And so what we believe is happening is a lot of the old-timers are taking some Bitcoin off the table because they don't want to face another down cycle, which in the early days was down 90 to 95%. I think the last one at its worst was down close to 75%.
Today we're down 30 30ish a little over 30%. And we are beginning to think that institutions have been waiting to build positions, waiting for this 4-year down cycle. And therefore, we think that the downside from here is not very significant. Just to give you a a little to dimension that a bit. If we look at what where many people think the bottom will be, they think it will be around 74,000.
Now why do they think that? It is because Micro Strategy which is now called Strategy Michael Sailor's firm uh its average cost is 74,000. So technicians always look for a marker out there to define the low. We think that institutions have been studying this and that as in this period where we might be between 74,000 and 86,000 that we will see some movement by institutions to buy into this new asset class.
And the the latest evidence is that Bank of America, Meil Lynch, uh so Bank of America owns Meil Lynch is the first company to put a spot Bitcoin ETF on its platform. And and what that means is Bank of America's clients were not allowed to build positions in Bitcoin. Well, a few weeks ago, they allowed it.
And as they have been educating investors about Bitcoin, they have been informing them about this four-year cycle. So, we think that institutions are going to pick up the slack here and that we will not have a down round like the 75% we saw in the last cycle. We do not believe Bitcoin's going to go to zero because it is a global monetary system and it is rules-based and it is good competition for fiat currencies especially in emerging markets.
Now recently we've seen stable coins usurp one of the roles we thought Bitcoin would play in emerging markets. So USDT, Tether and USDC, Circle are really onramps into the digital asset ecosystem and are streamlining payments. They're almost free to send. You can send very small units. And so as we've analyzed that, we thought, okay, Bitcoin is not going to be the insurance policy that stable coins are now playing against fiat currencies.
But that wasn't a huge use case for us. It if we were at the extreme, our bullish case was $1.5 million. That takes about $200,000 away. So that won't take us down to zero. Kathy say. By the end of 2026, . Kathy has been stressing to investors for months that all the factors are beginning to align right now, a period characterized by parabolic moves upwards in crypto prices.
We are exposed, of course, to digital gold, which is Bitcoin. But how do we think about gold in the years ahead? I'm going to take you back to the future. Uh so when I first started in the business, reegonomics was in full force in the early 80s and gold had just hit a peak in I believe it was 1980 uh of $850.
We had the hypothesis and we were making a forecast that gold would go down and the reason was we thought the combination of excellent fiscal policy so tax cuts and deregulation along with excellent monetary policy trying to crush inflation which was in the double digits would take away an important role that gold plays which is store of value, preservation of wealth, preservation of purchasing power.
And that's exactly what happened. Gold went down from roughly $850 uh to $350 over uh I don't know if it was a decade, but it was a very long period of time. And I think we're going to see something like that in the next few years. One of the reasons gold has increased here is because many investors are worried about deficits, trade deficits and government deficits around the world and they're looking for a hedge.
This is part of the wall of worry in this market uh that has also caused worries about the AI hype. When people are worried about the stock market, they seek a hedge and gold is serving as that hedge. If we are right, uh we believe the the stock market is going to continue to move up but will favor disruptive innovation, technologically enabled disruptive innovation.
We think that is going to continue powering the stock market. We think there will be uh a lot of confusion because uh technologically enabled disruptive innovation is going to lead to uh disruption in the traditional world order. So there will be a lot of stocks that will not do well in this period.
But if you're on the right side of change, we think you'll do very well because we think uh that we're moving from a rolling recession where we've been for the last three years into a rolling recovery and then into a productivity driven boom. So, we're we think we're moving into a uh productivitydriven boom in activity.
Uh and that that will be obvious by the midterm elections in the US next year. Uh we think this administration has engineered tax policy deregulation and tariffs um tariffs getting those out of the way and moving into next year. A lot of good news. We also think inflation is going to come down surprisingly.
And so why do people hold gold? It's a hedge against inflation. If inflation is is moving down and if we're also right that the dollar is going to start moving up again uh and then the dollar will be as good as gold, why do you need to hold gold? And you can get a double benefit if you're in the right kind of stocks in in the equity market, dollar-based stocks.
So you'll have the dollar going up and the stock uh the stocks going up. What does this mean for Bitcoin if we're calling Bitcoin digital gold? And yes, it does serve that role. But it is also the most important and the most secure asset, digital asset in this new asset class. Uh so institutions are looking at it.
It is part of a global rules-based monetary system. Uh and it's a new technology. So we think there are other reasons to own Bitcoin. Kathy Wood points out with real money now flowing in, she emphasizes that the crypto market has become more significant than ever. Institutional investors are driving the price of cryptocurrency, which will yield massive gains in the next 3 months.
Wood believes this will underscore Bitcoin's enduring relevance as an asset and as a hedge against currency devaluation. She anticipates that BTC will continue its parabolic run. Kathy Wood's main focal points this year has also been the movement in crypto legislation in the House, signaling the growing interest in the crypto space.
Although crypto legislation might face challenges due to political opposition, Wood advises the company in which she invests to spend heavily now in order to take advantage of huge growth potential. She estimates that ARK's concentration on technology advancement is worth about 7 to8 trillion or less than 10% of global equities markets.
Emerging markets are relying on digital currency and Kathy believes that based on the current market outlook, decentralized finance will take over and user the roles of most financial services companies. What do you think of Kathy Wood's interview on the current financial market? Comment down .
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