저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인을 디지털 금이 아니라 금과 상관관계 0.14의 별개 자산으로 보며, 금이 먼저 오르고 비트코인이 뒤따른 과거 두 사이클 패턴을 근거로 현재도 같은 흐름이 진행 중이라고 주장. 비트코인 장기 기본 시나리오 2030년 73만 달러, 강세 시나리오 150만 달러 제시. 바닥 구간은 5만~5.5만 달러로 봄. 연준 175bp 인하, 실시간 트루플레이션 1.8%·근원 1.3% 등 디플레이션 근거와 AI 비용 급락을 들어 유동성 확대 및 금리 인하 기대를 강조.
다듬은 글
Many people, because we call Bitcoin digital gold, they think, "Oh, well, surely it's highly correlated to gold." It is not. In fact, and we did the analysis from 2019, um which is when real institutional interest started uh evolving uh uh uh a little more intensely. Uh the correlation between gold and Bitcoin over that time has been 0.14.
Uh but if you look at the last two cycles, you'll see that gold rallied before Bitcoin did. And uh we think the same thing is happening now, and we we monitor uh we monitor Bitcoin to gold, uh and I I feature it regularly in something called In the Know, which I do uh once a month. And on that chart, you'll see uh yes, Bitcoin relative to gold has had a significant drop.
But if you look at the longer term, you'll see higher lows in terms of the very long-term trend line. Uh and so, we think that that the Bitcoin bull market is still intact. I realize we've been through what many would call uh a bear market, uh and yet down 50% is a victory compared to down 85 or 95%.
for ants, I think. Yes, exactly. Exactly. So, you know, that is still intact, and uh we do believe that uh Bitcoin will um will get to uh you know, new all-time highs um in this next cycle. Many people don't, uh but we do, and you know that we're uh on record uh saying that our base case uh for 2030 is uh 730,000.
Our bull case is 1.5 million. Bitcoin is at around 76,000. Stocks just hit all-time highs. And somehow the people who are most vocal about crypto 2 years ago have gone completely quiet. That silence should bother you. Because right now, behind that silence, something specific is happening. The institutions that spent years mocking this asset are buying it.
The ETF holders who watched Bitcoin drop 50% didn't sell. And one of the most controversial investors on Wall Street, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, just put her base case at $730,000 by 2030 with a bull case at $1.5 million. dollars. Most people will hear that number and move on. That's the same thing that happened in 2015 when she first bought Bitcoin at $250.
The same thing that happened when she said the institutions were coming years before they arrived. The call is already on record. The only question is whether the conditions backing it are real. Let's get into it. We started looking at Bitcoin, talking about it, uh at my last firm, uh and I brought with me to uh ARK, uh the lead analyst who was the person most intrigued by Bitcoin.
Uh he is now our chief futurist, Brett Winton. And uh I remember talking about it at our last firm, and it was simply a curiosity. Okay, let's see what happens with this. Um in 2014 when uh I founded ARK, uh we actually had instead of five innovation platforms, we had four. We had combined AI and blockchain technology
into something called the next generation internet. And that's actually still the name of ARKW, one of our funds focused in those areas. Um and the reason we did that is you know, we had the deep learning breakthrough uh in AI. So, AI was getting more and more attention, but you know, it was still very fresh, very young.
Uh and then blockchain technology uh we were more intrigued uh but we still didn't know if it deserved uh its own breakout. If, you know, people would even you know, if their eyes would uh you know, glaze over just uh not in in a lack of interest. So, uh but we were very interested and we wrote our first white paper on Bitcoin in collaboration with Art Laffer in 2015.
And we simply were asking the question, could Bitcoin serve the three roles of money? So, means of exchange, store of value, unit of account. And Art Laffer, I'm not sure if you know Laffer curve, he's famous for that in the fiscal policy arena, but he's also a monetary scholar. His His mentor uh was Robert Mundell, who won uh a Nobel Prize for his monetary theory.
And uh so, we put the our thesis in front of Art and from an economic point of view, he helped us tremendously. And I have an economics background, so I began to understand Bitcoin uh in a profound way because he said to me at the time uh you know, he said, "This is what I've been waiting for since since the US closed the gold window in 1971.
And I said, "Okay, Art. That sounds like a pretty big idea. How big could this idea be?" Uh and he said, "Well, how big is the US monetary base?" And back then, it was 4 and 1/2 trillion dollars. Today, it's a little over 6 trillion. Um and Bitcoin was the equivalent, we called it network value at the time,
of 6 billion dollars in market cap. Think about that. 6 billion and he was saying trillions. So, I personally invested right away. Um and we looked around for the best way to gain exposure for our clients. And we had to we had to ask permission, New York Stock Exchange, SEC. You know, we we had to get through some regulatory
uh barriers or or bottlenecks. And we found GBTC. Uh GBTC really I think they had to go through a year of seasoning before they could launch it. And uh so, that's that's where we started. Uh Bitcoin at that time was $250. Uh we took our first position in the summer of 2015 when Greece was threatening to leave the EU and we noted that, "Wait a minute.
Whenever there's a headline like that, uh Bitcoin goes up. Hey, this is pretty interesting. It's acting like a hedge. Uh a hedge against uh disaster. And so, uh we thought, "Wow, this could be not only a risk on uh asset, but it could be a risk off. It could serve both roles at different times." Well, I think there are are a few things going on right now.
And it was interesting. So, we took our first position in 2015 and we were made fun of back then. I bet. And you may or may not have been around and in the industry at that time, but many people thought this was just a a marketing gimmick. And that's when I really knew that wait a minute, we might be on to something big here.
When that many people make fun of you or just dismiss, it's and a lot of it was dismissive. Um, that [clears throat] makes me even more interested in it in a technology. And so, we have a global monetary system uh, that really is Bitcoin. Bitcoin owns that space. Uh, DeFi, so so Ethereum, Solana, I think they they are running with that space.
Hyperliquid giving them a bit of a challenge as well. Um, the institutional interest, I think we needed Larry Fink actually to change his mind. Yeah. Because he was saying he was the leader of the pack almost and it was interesting that that the leader of the largest asset management firm in the world um, was making it his business to dismiss Bitcoin.
She bought Bitcoin at $250 because Art Laffer, a monetary scholar, not a crypto trader, looked at the US monetary base and said the gap between where Bitcoin was and where it needed to be was so wide it was almost offensive. That framing matters more now than it did then because the monetary base has grown.
Bitcoin has grown, but the logic of that gap hasn't changed. It's just gotten harder to dismiss. The part most people skip past is the stablecoin point. Wood is saying stablecoins took the role Bitcoin was supposed to play in emerging markets. Now, that's not a side note. Bitcoin lost that lane. What's left is the store of value case and that one is now running directly against gold.
Right now, gold is ahead. I wrote a letter at the beginning of the year, and in it you'll find a matrix of the correlations uh among asset classes, and uh specifically trying to understand Bitcoin. Um many people, because we call Bitcoin digital gold, they think, "Oh, well, surely it's highly correlated to gold." It is not.
Uh in fact, and we did the analysis from 2019, um which is when real institutional interest started uh evolving uh uh a little more intensely. Uh the correlation between gold and Bitcoin over that time has been 0.14. Uh but if you look at the last two cycles, you'll see that gold rallied before Bitcoin did.
And uh we think the same thing is happening now, and it it we we monitor uh we monitor Bitcoin to gold, uh and I I feature it regularly in something called In the Know, which I do uh once a month. And on that chart, you'll see uh yes, Bitcoin relative to gold has had a significant drop. But if you look at the longer term, you'll see higher lows in terms of the very long-term trend line.
Uh and so, we think that that the Bitcoin bull market is still intact. I realize we've been through what many would call uh a bear market, and yet down 50% is a victory compared to down 85 or 95%. for ants, Kathy. Yes, exactly. Exactly. So, you know, that is still intact, and uh we do believe that uh Bitcoin will will get to you know, new all-time highs in this next cycle.
Many people don't, but we do and you know that we're on record saying that our base case for 2030 is 730,000. Our bull case is 1.5 million. We took a lot a lot of flak for or I did for saying that stablecoins had usurped some of the role of Bitcoin, which is true. Certainly in emerging markets. Have but what what people missed when I was making that statement was that gold was rallying.
So the store value role of Bitcoin is also moving up. And in fact, the two cancel each other out. Actually, the the stronger the stronger move has been gold relative to Bitcoins in terms of the impact on the Bitcoin price. So we're in the bottoming out process. You know, David Puell who does our on-chain analytics says the absolute capitulation would occur, meaning it we may get there.
I doubt it the way Bitcoin and other assets are acting. But that drop dead price range is in the 50 to 55,000 range. As I said and and you also are alluding to, we're seeing liquidity moves around the world. And many people because the headlines are always talking about the Fed being hawkish, not wanting to ease.
Well, guess what? The Fed funds rate is down 100 175 basis points. And yet uh the the narrative out there is, "Oh, they're too hawkish. They're too hawkish." They have started easing. I think because inflation is going to surprise dramatically on the low side of expectations. And I'll give you an anecdote.
Pepsi. Now, what the heck does Pepsi have to do with this story? Well, we noticed that Frito Lay, about I'm going to say about 3 months ago, cut its pricing 15% and today it announced that its volume surprised relative to expectations significantly. That's what should happen in a low inflation world.
You cut prices, you get more unit growth. And that's certainly the case in the technology world and we're seeing massive deflation with AI training costs dropping 75% per year. AI inference costs, so how much does it cost ChatGPT to answer your questions, those costs are dropping 85 to 95% per year.
So, I think we're going to see a massive wave of good deflation out there and that is you cut prices, you get big unit growth and that's why we expect real GDP growth to accelerate as well. When the Fed sees inflation dropping and I don't know if you pay attention to True Flation. True Flation's inflation rate, even with gasoline prices doing what they have done, True Flation is up to 1.8%.
It got below 1%. This is a measure of consumer price inflation. It's blockchain-based. It's based on tens of thousands of items measured real-time. And the core inflation measure is up to only 1.3% so there was a tug-of-war in inflation by all measures including trueflation that was in the two to three percent range for about two and a half to three years.
Trueflation says all of those are going to resolve to the downside and if that happens we believe the Fed will ease and one of the reasons they'll ease more is because the unemployment rate while it is low if you break it apart you'll see entry-level jobs are being hit here. So companies are not firing but they're not hiring either.
So youth unemployment or 16 to 24 year old that is at 8 and a half percent and now it did get to 11% it's at 8 and a half percent. But that that tells you that there is slack in the system on the in the employment side which is pulling wage growth down which is very interesting if you look at any wage measures you'll see they're decelerating as productivity is accelerating.
So why would the Fed ease? The Fed would ease because the demand for money is increasing relative to the supply and that's a function of unit growth and its role is to equilibrium or to accommodate real economic growth. The gold to Bitcoin ratio has moved against Bitcoin. She said it plainly. Over the last two cycles gold rallied first then Bitcoin followed.
That's the pattern she's watching and by her read we're in the middle of that setup right now. Gold has moved but Bitcoin hasn't caught up yet. That could mean the move is coming. It could also mean this cycle is different in ways that haven't fully shown up yet. Here's what makes the $730,000 call harder to dismiss than it sounds.
She's not building it on speculation. The Fed has already cut rates 175 basis points. Inflation, by the real-time blockchain-based measure she cited, is running at 1.8% and the core reading is at 1.3%. AI is dropping training costs 75% per year. Inference costs are falling 85% to 95% annually. The deflationary pressure building underneath this economy is real
and when the Fed is forced to respond to it, liquidity expands. That liquidity has to land somewhere. Bitcoin's ETF holders didn't panic through a 50% drawdown. Institutions averaged down. The weak hands are out. That's not a bullish opinion, that's observable flow data. But the number she gave that should actually keep you up is the other one.
$50,000 to $55,000. That's the absolute capitulation floor. The level where if Bitcoin breaks through it, the on-chain analytics say full washout has occurred. We're not there. The way things are moving, she doubts we get there. But that range exists and it's not far. And then there's the agentic AI point, machine-to-machine payments, bots conducting commerce, running reports, and purchasing data.
All of it needing a financial layer that doesn't route through a bank. Her team already cut reporting time by 75% using AI tools. The next step is those tools operating autonomously. And when that happens, blockchain-based payment infrastructure becomes not just a feature, but a requirement. She's been there before, so it's a pattern worth understanding going into whatever comes next.
Drop your thoughts on these in the comments. That's it for today. See you in the next video.
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