저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 의장 후보 지연과 하셋 지명 반발로 금리인하 기대는 유지되며 12월 인하 확률이 높다고 봄. 고용·임금 둔화 속 단기 강세 베팅을 유지하나, 실업률 전환 리스크는 남아 있음. 리파인(Redfin)의 2026년 주택 리셋(가격 소폭 상승, 금리 하락에 따른 거래·리파이낸스 증가)을 소개하며 모기지·리노베이션 관련 수혜를 언급. AI 관련 IPO 붐 가능성과 마이크로스트래티지의 자산 운용 리스크도 언급. 전반적으로 경기 연착륙 기대에 기반한 낙관적 전망.
다듬은 글
Well, Red Fin's talking about 2026 having a housing reset, and a lot of it has to do with the Federal Reserve, which why all of a sudden is there this big delay in getting a new Federal Reserve person chosen? Donald Trump told us we were going to get the pick this week, but now he's delaying it until next year.
Why is he doing that? Well, we might have some insights into exactly why. Plus, we got to break down what Red Fin is saying here on top of what the heck happened with Microsoft this morning because we know AI is what's holding and propping up this economy. Uh, and frankly, you know, unless you're a stock millionaire right now, the economy doesn't feel that great.
Uh, it makes sense mostly because 27 week unemployment is rocketing up. Uh, black unemployment, a historical recession leading indicator of the most vulnerable getting whacked, uh, is skyrocketing. Pay growth is falling. We just had a terrible ADP report this morning that missed and indicated we're now net negative on job gains since July, which also isn't great.
Uh, this is the worst ADP trend we've had since 2023. So, still not terrible, but I mean, all you have to do if you want terrible trends is look at challenger reports. Challenger reports tell us not only did we have the worst layoffs in 22 years for an October month in October, which also happens to be the month we're not getting data for thanks to the Schumer shutdown or Schumer siesta, whatever you want to call it.
Uh but October per the challenger job cuts report is not only the worst October in 2020 in 22 years but also the month that we saw plans to lay off more workers skyrocket by 28.5%. It's a 28.5% increase in layoff plans since March. That's not great. So it's understandable the jobs market and the economy don't feel super great right now.
And you've got stats that for Black Friday, stores that had the best results were stores that had sales for under $100 as people are uh I guess pinching together the pennies. That said, let's talk about this Red Fin housing reset to see will there be any kind of relief for housing for folks and then also what the economist is talking about regarding the Federal Reserve because the economy I think over the next 5 months is going to be in sort of critical reset territory.
Uh and and this probably a good fivemon set of time to be cautious. you know, save money, reduce debt, get some cash reserves if you can, add some skills, recession proof skills, whether it's like nursing or the trades maybe, or even recession recovery skills like uh real estate and lending. But you'll see exactly that actually in this Red Fin piece.
So, it'll be very interesting. But let's hit on this. So, what's going on? So, the first thing that's going on at the Federal Reserve is this concern over who do we pick? So, Trump's like, "Yo, let's pick Kevin Hasset." Okay. The problem with Kevin Hassid, we all know this, is he's he's a wet blanket.
He's a shill. He's a shill for Trump and that's it. Myin at least has some impressiveness to stand on, but Kevin Hassid doesn't. In fact, The Economist bags on the guy as being the guy who wrongly called for the Dow Jones at the peak of the bubble in 1999 to 4x and wrote a book on how the Dow was going to 4x right before the dot crash.
and that in May of 2020, COVID deaths were just going to evaporate. So, the economist and a lot of people don't like Hasset. I personally haven't liked Hasset either. I think he's a wet blanket. And so, it sounds like Trump wanted to announce Hasset this week, put out a feeler that it was going to be Hasset, which would be great for reducing rates, but not great for the, you know, status of the Federal Reserve.
Uh, and I think people sent a lot of backlash Trump's way. And so all of a sudden, Trump's walking this back going, "No, you know what? We're gonna wait. We're gonna wait to decide until January of 2025 or 2026, so basically the new year." Now, the economist is arguing that Waller is a way better choice.
And I actually totally agree with them. They think that Chris Waller is somebody who will rightly focus on inflation, whereas Hasset wouldn't. Hasset wouldn't care about the risks. he would only care about making Trump happy. Whereas Kevin H or Waller is a monetary policy expert and even though they don't totally agree with Waller's desire to cut rates, he wants to cut rates, but he actually has credibility and had multiple correct calls, including being dovish in 2011, being hawkish in 20 uh 21, and uh you know, now warning about jobs and the labor market.
So, they think he's on the right side of history. And I kind of agree. I think as long as we don't get somebody like Kevin Walsh, it's good because ultimately cutting rates is the right decision. And rate cut bets are moving in the favor of rate cuts. We got now a 94.6% chance of getting a rate cut December 10th.
31% chance of having ADP numbers this morning decreased the risk that we're going to have a hawkish cut on December 10th. So, that's continuing our bullish trades for near-term bullishness uh in the stock market. This is the channel as well. And so far, things like Hood are breaking out, Tesla's breaking out, the Q's are rising above our lines.
All three of these we've been mentioning in the alpha reports over the past week as breakouts. You've still got consumer stocks recovering as well. Fun, Dave and Busters, Target, all of them coming up off of their lows. And if you look back the week before Thanksgiving on the 18th, which was like within a day or two of the bottom of the market, I made a whole video called buy.
And people are like, "Oh, Kevin, I'm flip-flopping." And if you watch the video, it's like, "No, it's we should be bullish between now and December 9th, you know, the day before the meeting." Now, not only can we reiterate that that was the correct call, but we could reiterate that we might be able to be bullish even past December 9th, you know, and the 10th meeting because of this weak jobs data.
But that's short-term bullishness because we still have to deal with the risk of an unemployment rollover. Now, Red Fin does not think . Redfin does not think we are going to have an unemployment rollover or recession. So, take a look at Redfin's take, which keep in mind Redfin got bought by Rocket Mortgage.
So, if you want to invest in Red Fin, you could buy Rocket Mortgage and which I actually don't think is a bad idea. I'm a little biased because I think that's a great play. Uh, but anyway, take a look at this. The Great Housing Reset will take shape in 2026. It won't be a price correction or a recession, but rather gradual increases in home sales and a normalization of prices as affordability gradually improves.
In my opinion, this is actually bullish being a realtor or a lender. Because remember, realtors and lenders make money off of volume. You want volume when you're a realtor or a lender. A little too zoomed in over here, aren't I? I'll fix that later. But anyway, you want volume, you know. So, if you're doing loans, cash out refinances or whatever, 2026 could be great, recession or not, because as rates slowly come down, you're going to have more people refinancing.
And that's sort of the crux of this reset piece here. See, they argue that the weak labor market will lead the Fed to cut rates more in 2026 and bring monetary policy to a more neutral rate. Now, they're only thinking that mortgage rates are going to go to the low 6% range, which it's worth remembering that the Fed cutting does not equal lower mortgage rates.
The problem with the Fed cutting is Fed rates have nothing to do with mortgage rates. The 10-year is more closely associated with mortgage rates than anything else. The problem with mortgage rates is mortgage rates are going to price in the risk that you make a policy mistake and you actually induce inflation.
Again, unfortunately, Kevin Hasset uh and the choice of Kevin Hasset has increased the risk of a shock. Remember, we're shockrone right now. You have to remember back in the banking crisis that we had in 2023, we were not shockrone. We were we were nowhere near shockprone. That was uh that was right here.
We were neg we were totally inverted on the 210 yield curve. That's not shockprone. You're shockprone post liberation. So this is when we're most sensitive to any kind of like private credit disaster or AI shock or whatever. Now Blue Owl doesn't think that there's a shock. You've got Blue Owl executives and staff buying $200 million worth of their shares after their, you know, uh uh uh roll up of some of their funds failed after the Financial Times exposed them.
and uh and they're like, "All right, fine. We'll go buy the dip on our stock." That that is somewhat of a bullish signal or they're just throwing good money after bad. We we don't entirely know. But continuing with the Red Fin comments here, they think that home prices will rise 1% in 2026. This is, you know, slow.
It's a slow up, which makes sense cuz rates haven't come down rapidly yet. That's actually bullish for being able to buy, though. And that's what I like is I have this mindset of I want to accumulate as much real estate as I can. 2022, three, four, five, six, accumulate as much real estate as I can.
And if we end up having a recession and rates go to zero, I think real estate could actually boom because I don't think this would be a real estate recession or we just slowly get rates down and then real estate also booms just by the nature of rates coming down more over time more so than even Red Fin is calling here.
I personally think and if I were the Fed chair this is what I would do. If I were like in a magical world, Fed chair and president of the United States, I would remove tariffs immediately. I would negotiate free trade in a different way using soft power and hard power or necessary, but I would negotiate free trade in a different way.
I would not use tariffs. I think tariffs are a terrible idea. Uh, and I would instantly, if I were also fed chair, I would instantly force rates down to 2%, maybe even one and a half%. That's how I think you stick to soft landing. That's my opinion and I think by removing tariffs you you wouldn't actually be causing inflation in this case.
So now obviously you know my opinion it's not necessarily going to come true. Uh but that that's my bias if you will. Now what's that interesting is as I'm recording this segment here we talked about the Kevin Hasset and Waller situation but look at what just dropped front page of the FT bond investors warned US Treasury so Besset over picking Hasset as Fed chair.
That's probably why the 102 Treasury spiked. Treasury Department solicited feedback on Hassid and other candidates in one-on-one uh uh discussions. Discussions took place in November before Bessant held his final round of interviews. Uh Treasury declined to comment. Blah blah blah. But yeah, basically people think he's a shill.
No, nobody wants to be Liz Trust. Ooh, wow. Good call. Good call. Like you need somebody that you could believe in. And unfortunately, you know, Hasset's probably not that guy. Uh, but that's okay. They could pick Waller. Waller would be a great choice. I would be so happy if they pick Waller. So, this is great news that people are putting up a fuss and people should be putting up a fuss over this stuff.
It's kind of like the fuss people should be putting up at Micro Strategy. I hate to say it, but Mic dude, Michael Sailor just dropped $27 million on a new jet. Look at this. Net cash used in investing activities increased 15.4 4 billion. They spent uh uh 15.4 billion in the increase uh for the increase in purchases of Bitcoin and a $27 million deposit on a new corporate jet aircraft.
And I think it's hilarious because first of all, what are you buying a corporate jet for? Like, I get it. If you're investing in real estate, you know, across half of the United States, you need to go meet people. You need to go do your damn job. You're going to have to go fly around and meet people.
You got to do your job. But what you actually have with Bitcoin, what are you going to go check on your cold storage in different locations? This is insane. Michael Sailor doesn't need a jet, let alone an 80 million jet. I I'm guessing it's probably a G600. Somewhere between 80 to $100 million is my guess.
Uh kind of crazy. What's also very interesting is wow, look at this reference. In 2007, Micro Strategy 101 went not to buy a corporate jet aircraft. They bought a $46 million jet aircraft right before the crash. Holy smokes. Crazy. Somebody says Michael Sailor needs money to fly his mistresses around.
Michael Sailor is going to float off into the sunset rich like crazy. Uh it doesn't really matter even if Bitcoin and Micro Strategy go bankrupt. He's already sucked his money aside into mansions and real estate and probably other assets that he doesn't tell us about. But anyway, the Michael Sailor thing's totally separate from what we should talk about, which is continuing with this great reset piece here, which is home buying will become more affordable because home price growth will be slower than wage growth.
So, Red Fin is actually making the argument of a soft landing. This is a soft landing argument. It is not consistent with what we are seeing right now uh in ADP reports. Now, that's not necessarily saying they're wrong. It's just saying it's not what we're seeing right now. In fact, what we're seeing right now is small businesses are getting whacked.
Small businesses are cutting expenses, which is smart. I think it's already a little too late to cut expenses. You know, I massively cut expenses at House Act and then took some of that money to invest in real estate and some of it to invest in AI. And what came out of it was this phenomenal AI product that, you know, I I want to double down on and and uh maybe even triple down on because, you know, I I actually think we might run into an IPO boom cycle of euphoria thanks to AI and there could be a like a rush for people to IPO in 2026.
And I'm like, man, sign me up. Let's go. Let's let's rocket ship this. No guarantees. This is not a solicitation to invest. Always read offering circulars. Investments come with risk. But look, Anthropic taps IPO lawyer as it's race uh as it races OpenAI to go public. So, you've got Anthropic tapping a law firm and talking to investment banks to potentially go public at a $300 billion valuation.
Uh which is kind of a bullish sign. You know, it wasn't like Microsoft's lowering AI growth targets wasn't bullish this morning. You know, they came out with this piece right before the market opened. the market briefly tanked and I'm like this is not a big deal. Uh, and the reason we know it's not a big deal is because we read the bottom of the article, which probably nobody got to, but really maybe my guess is one group or one sales group says that quotas for the foundry product were reduced from 50% to 25% growth, which is still really good growth, right?
Microsoft overall is denying that these quotas have been lowered. So my guess is the company as a whole is denying it but you know some teams lowered quotas. That's my guess on how to reconcile those stories. Who knows? But broadly you know so far this ISM report we got this morning still talk about trying to fill vacancies for jobs not getting a lot of applications.
Yes employment weaker but not falling off a cliff which is good. This morning we also in addition to the S&P ISMs uh we got the PMI or sorry the ISM report. This morning we also got the S&P PMIS which was this and actually indicated uh uh you know output growth in all seven sectors still positive though slower things slowing down uh a little bit of a slowdown in employment as well but majority of things were still in expansion.
So, we're not falling off a cliff, but pay growth is falling. Pay growth is seeing substantial declines, at least based on the ADP reports, and it's worst amongst the smallest of businesses, which makes sense. Okay, so, you know, trying to put all of this together, hopefully Red Fin is right. But the point, the bottom line of what they see here is they think we're going to see a lot of uh basically well potentially people partnering on real estate, which I think is a terrible idea.
I think the only way you should ever partner on real estate is if one person is in control. Like, you know, this is why we structured House Hack that we the way we did. So we can't have fights with partners. No partners. You know, Kevin's in Kevin's the boss. We will do this and and it's and wow, the ship works.
kind of like the dictator of real estate, you know, it's like we will be doing it this way and it's fantastic. It it works really really well. Uh but but if you have, you know, you get into a partnership, I think this is a stupid idea. They're literally they literally talk about prenuptual style partnerships for Gen Z and millennial to try to afford homes together.
This is dumb. Uh but they also talk about a renovation boom coming. And if you remember, Warren Buffett just invested into home builders and renovation stocks. Specifically, he invested in pool and you know his home builders. Uh look at pool. If you go to pool, pool's been declining. So maybe is there an opportunity there?
I don't know. But maybe something to pay attention to again. So, uh, what you also find is Red Fin argues that people are going to renovate their homes more as rates come down. They'll also pull out more HELOCs or cash out refinances to fund those remodels. I'm personally extremely bullish about this for our renovation AI because if there's going to be an AI IPO boom and euphoric phase of the cycle and people are going to renovate more dude I'm just thinking to myself like this is music to my ears for house hack and house hack investors obviously no guarantees but like I'm really excited about this.
So now how do you benefit off of this? Well I think first I think this is bullish mortgage companies. is I think this is bullish renovations if we get a soft landing uh and and broadly it's bullish the consumer if wages do actually start growing the way Red Fin says this this housing reset will occur if it's accurate and Waller will be a good Fed if Fed chair if we end up getting Waller so we'll see obviously the next five months are going to be critical especially after that ADP uh information this morning, bad jobs report, you know, negative jobs, which does, you know, basically guaranteed our December cut and probably gives us less hawkish of a cut in December, which is great.
But something you have to think about for the next 5 months, like things that I think are smart to do right now, uh, number one, brush up your resume. Number two, pay down debt as much as possible. Number three, grind to build your cash reserve. You know, no margin, cash reserve. You know, move extra cash to an investment account so you don't spend it.
Like, I'm a big fan. I sent out a daily wealth, you know, the free daily wealth. Sent out a daily wealth saying, "Hey, like, have you set up your auto investing?" That was just an example of a daily wealth we had yesterday. Uh, and and I give an example of how I'm setting up my auto investing to go from salary to investments, right?
But then also add skills. You know, I'm a like I don't think you can ever go wrong becoming a realtor, becoming a lender, becoming a pilot, you know, whatever, becoming a licensed electrician, or even learning how to do these sort of things. These are good. So, um, that's a strategic way to protect yourself.
Betting on a stimulus check is kind of cool, but it's a gamble and it's a bandage for what's really happening in the economy. So, uh, that's that's my broad outlook uh, and strategy. Now, with that said, yeah, the employment numbers, I hope the worst ends soon. Like hopefully October, November are just bad ju guu and we can start getting back to growth in December and January.
If we start inflecting, by the way, that's going to be your tell. If you start inlecting on jobs growth up and we start actually going positive again, bullish, man. Bull bear scale. bear bull skyrockets, man. That's that's when you go bullish AI, um, you know, bullish debt, whatever, because that's that's when our soft landing starts sticking. So, pretty excited about .
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