Code Red: We're going Bankrupt... Trump Stimulus Checks.

요약 보기

미국 개인·소상공인 파산 급증, BNPL 이용 확대, 맨해튼 개발업자 파산 우려 등 경기 취약 신호를 제시. AI 버블(OpenAI 'code red', Gemini 경쟁) 붕괴가 순환 투자 전체를 흔들 수 있다고 경고. 단기적으로는 12월 9일까지 상승 흐름을 기대하나 부채 레버리지는 피하라고 조언. 트럼프 관세 환급·배당 공약은 마케팅으로 보고 연준 금리인하 기대와 대법원 관세 판결 가능성을 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, Donald Trump just reiterated dividend checks or stimulus checks coming to Americans next year, and it's happening at the same time as it seems like America is going bankrupt at almost every different seam that we could potentially look at. Uh, in this segment, we're going to go through multiple of these different seams that are popping and they're going to cover real estate, business bankruptcies, personal bankruptcies, you name it.

02. It's not looking great right now except for in the AI world. Although, even in the AI world, we've got a code red to talk about. So, I don't even know where to start. Let's just get into it. Look at this. Mom and pop bankruptcies have just hit a record. Now, you might think, how is this possible when we just crossed $8 trillion in money and money markets?

03. It's because that money and money markets isn't your money. It's the coffers of like Microsoft and Apple that are putting all these big cash hordes into savings accounts or Warren Buffett going, "H, oh, we got cash, so if poop hits the fan, doesn't matter to us." But poop actually is starting to hit the fan.

04. Look at this. More than 2,200 people in small firms filed bankruptcy this year so far via subchapter V or five rules. Now, this is for smaller businesses. Uh, and what they actually did is they reduced the number of businesses that could qualify for this form of bankruptcy. The subchapter 5 program began in 2020 as a way to let individuals and small businesses with less than 7.5 million in debt avoid the cost of using the larger restructuring process like a chapter 11 bankruptcy or chapter 13 for personal bankruptcies.

05. You know, chapter 7's liquidation, right? Uh, and the debt limit was actually reduced to $3 million. So they more than haved the the limit that you could use this program for, which would mean you would think that the program would shrink, but it's actually up 8%. So they literally said, you know what?

06. We're going to cut the program's eligibility by 60%. And people using the bankruptcy program for their small businesses are up 8% this year. How does that make sense? Crazy. But it's not just that. People are again going right back to using BNPL, which I personally wonder is going to lead to this like personal bankruptcy disaster because people are loading up on all this personal debt.

07. Uh, and it keeps going like this surge of BNPL continues. Look at this. BNPL services have driven a 9% jump through Cyber Monday with one of the biggest buy now pay later days ever on Cyber Monday. They're branding this as consumers are just planning ahead. But like let's be real, that's like industry way of saying we're broke and we need to butter out the payments into payment plans.

08. Buy now paid later transactions at PayPal. Shout out to PayPal. Up 23% year-over-year uh up to Black Friday. That's up to Black Friday. And then of course, you know, people spend even more money on Black Friday and uh and Cyber Monday. Keep in mind, people spend until they lose their jobs. So spending isn't necessarily a sign that people are not struggling.

09. There's so much struggling going on that the Wall Street Journal editorial board is literally talking about a bailout coming to New York City because you have so many businesses or developers that end it up financing loans through, for example, New York Community Bank, now renamed Flagstar and backstopped by the city of New York that because of a new housing report out right here from the New York Housing Conference, They actually argue that there's a likelihood we're going to see bankruptcies of developers that are going to need a bailout in New York.

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13. Aga. They actually argue that there's a likelihood we're going to see bankruptcies of developers that are going to need a bailout in New York because unfortunately the expenses, whether it's insurance costs or uh just the cost to repair buildings in New York have risen through so much over the last few years of inflation that if now you freeze rent on top of this in New York, you're basically just going to bankrupt developers in New York and you're going going to have to bail them out with a $1 billion rescue.

14. But think about how this all ties together. This isn't just you might be thinking like, Kevin, what do I care about Manhattan? I'm not in Manhattan. Totally reasonable to think that way, but understand how this all ties together. So, on one hand, you've got bankruptcy skyrocketing. On the other hand, you've got people relying on buy now pay later more than ever before.

15. On the other hand, you've got all this stress about uh private credit, thericolor collapse after JP Morgan Rugpulls, the first brands collapse, the Renovo home renovations company, the the private equity rollup that went bankrupt. Remember the portaotti company that went bankrupt. I mean, you're seeing it across the board.

16. Automotive weakness and retail sales, lot of bankruptcies. But it's not just that. The concern is now that it's actually going to spread because just the housing uh disaster in Manhattan could end up rolling into a banking crisis at New York Community Bank, now Flagstar, which then affects the entire broader banking system.

17. Now, fortunately, the one thing that's propping everything up right now is artificial intelligence. Of course, the OECD is now warning that an AI bubble is a key downside risk. That is basically just the straw that would break the camel's back. Although, at this point, AI is probably like the legs of the very camel.

18. Axios is reporting that things could get worse if an AIdriven stock market bubble were to burst. The OECD is citing that weakening employment growth and the price impact of tariffs uh as well as the inflation that we've experienced is going to lower growth and potentially put us near zero growth. Uh and then of course that's where we get this code red.

19. Look at this. Open AAI CEO declares code red to combat threats to GPT. And basically the Wall Street Journal is arguing uh along with some of these other websites that this the reason you have this code red happening at OpenAI is not only because Gemini is skyrocketing from 450 million signups in July uh over to 650 million in October, but Gemini is bankrolled by Google.

20. Google's got all the cash in the world. I mean, we'll go pull it up really quickly so you can see it, but Google subscription for Gemini is basically just rolled up into Google Workspace. So, a lot of people who already have Google Workspace at their business basically get Gemini for free. So, why pay for OpenAI?

21. if OpenAI starts struggling and they start running out of money and they stop getting funding, then the circular investments that OpenAI makes into like Josh Kushner's fund at the Trump family, Thrive, and into Nvidia, the circular investments, the whole circle slows down. Again, the cash companies like Google, they'll be just fine.

22. Look at Google. Google's got 98 billion dollar almost a hundred billion dollar in cash and marketable securities. Those are current assets. Well, plus their receivables and other current assets are actually at $173 billion. Now, in fairness, they do have current liabilities. SNS the uh um deferred revenues over here.

23. They've got about 95 billion in bills, but compare that to their accounts receivable. They've got another clear 50 to60 billion of cash sitting around. This is the opposite of OpenAI who's desperately trying to raise their next $100 billion funding round. Okay. Well, that's a problem. Not only do you have Sarah Frier, you remember when OpenAI essentially de facto asked for a government back stop for loans?

24. That's because they need their funding rate round. I think it was the information who talked about the hundred billion. You hear it? GPT's performance will impact OpenAI's ability to raise another 100 billion or so to weather to get through the significant cash burn the company is projecting. The company projected this summer while it burns tens of billions of dollars to develop new technology and power GPT and other products that chatbot will generate just 10 billion in revenue from subscriptions.

25. Hopefully 20 billion next year. But wait a minute, if that growth stops because GPT is eating or Gemini is eating their lunch, then they might not be able to raise the hundred billion dollars. If they can't raise the hundred billion dollars, now they can't invest anymore in Thrive or the investment that they've thrown into Thrive is worth less money.

26. Now they could buy fewer Nvidia chips. Amazon and Google are both competing with their chips, you know, against Nvidia, obviously. But really what you're doing is is you're slowing the circular progression of the entire AI boom. Now that's not to be bearish on the entire AI stack. I think there are value plays in AI as long as we soft land.

27. You know, we've got a big ADP employment report tomorrow. We'll see. That'll be a monthly report. Last month's ADP employment report showcased about 42,000 jobs. 37,000 of those in the West Coast, mostly large companies. So presumably like the AI Silicon Valley stack. Well, what happens if that ends up slowing down?

28. Well, oopsy dups. So, you've got a lot of cracks that are really brewing that we have to get through. Not only do you have these cracks at OpenAI, which is really the big sort of puppet for excessive spending without having the money, which you know, the Wall Street Journal front, it's front page of the Wall Street Journal.

29. It's literally the front page of the Financial Times as well. You go to the front page of the Financial Times, it was top top story right here. Most read story, Sam Alman declares code red, right? So at the same time as bankruptcies are rising, Open AI, the AI puppet is faltering. The OECD is warning about an AI burst or bubble burst to the economy.

30. It makes sense why you've got some nervousness. Now, we have bullishness between now and December 10th, right? Probably December 9th. That's because we're pricing in that we're expecting a December rate cut for um uh for the Federal Reserve. So, we'll get our December rate cut. But what happens after that?

31. Well, we're hoping to get the Kevin Hasset wet blanket announcement. We get a bunch of rate cuts. Donald Trump just delayed that, mind you, to um 20 early 2026. He said it might come as soon as this week. Now it's delayed, but we're basically now just hanging our hats on tax cuts, tax refunds, and stimulus, which here's Donald Trump reiterating just that.

32. Nice uh dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt. Listen to that again. I'll give you a little bit more of it so you could hear the full context of it. Be smart, but if we're smart, they're not going to be able to catch us. They know that. They told me that next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever.

33. And we're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs because we've taken in literally trillions of dollars. And remember, Donald Trump is really trying to promote the uh Oh, look, even CNBC is talking about Code Red right now. Uh yeah, $1.4 trillion of AI commitments, but dude, you literally have $13 billion of revenue.

34. You don't have the cash pile that Google has. So literally if open AI falters, $1.4 trillion of commitments and forecasts at companies fall apart. Like Google killing GPT collapses the AI bubble. Kind of scary. But anyway, Donald Trump here is setting up for this idea that, hey, Supreme Court, please don't kill my tariffs.

35. I actually think the Supreme Court killing the tariffs would be the best possible thing for the economy. you would juice the economy with a task tax cut at Costco, Target, Walmart, uh grocery, everything gets cheaper if you kill these tariffs. And hopefully you can soft land then, right? Uh the Supreme Court has already said, "Hey, if we just rule on the AIPA tariffs, we probably also need to rule on all of the other avenues Donald Trump could utilize tariffs because obviously people think this is logical.

36. If they kill the AIPA tariffs, Trump will just find a different way to tariff." Okay. Okay. Well, the Supreme Court already realizes that they're not dumb. And so, my suspicion is the Supreme Court maybe in February or so will rule and end up saying all tariffs need to be cleared by Congress. And if at that point we haven't fallen off an employment ledge yet, could be bullish.

37. But for now, Trump is talking up his STEMI checks conditioned on tariffs. Downside, if you don't get tariffs removed, you pro almost certainly won't get a tariff dividend check, stimulus check. and we're going to be given uh a nice uh dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt. We as you know I inherit a lot of debt but uh it's peanuts compared to the kind of numbers we're talking about.

38. So, we're going to be making a dividend to the people and uh additionally, we're going to be able to reduce debt and as time goes by over the next 2, three, four years, those numbers are going to go up and I believe that at some point in the not too distant future, you won't even have income tax to pay because this is totally marketing for tariffs.

39. Do not believe this. Do not get your hope up. Trust me, if we if this happens, we'll all jump up and down, okay? But it is so unlikely to happen. All this is is a marketing for tariffs so the Supreme Court doesn't take it away because then Donald Trump is going to go, "Well, you know, the Supreme Court took away my tariffs.

40. You know, if it weren't for the Supreme Court, we could have gotten rid of the income tax." This is all pre-manipulation. He's pre-manipulating you to blame the Supreme Court. The money we're taking in is so great, it's so enormous that you're not going to have income tax to pay. Which is total by the way.

41. Like the money that we're taking in from tariffs would barely cover a $2,000 stimulus check to maybe 150 million Americans. You know, that'd be like $300 million. The tariffs basically would cover that one time. Zero income taxes. Come on, man. The math ain't mathing. Whether you get rid of it or just keep it around for fun or have it really low,

42. but nobody's keeping it around for fun. It's lower than it is now, but you won't be paying income tax. We've slashed $1 trillion in costly job killing regulations, saving Americans an estimated $2,100 for it's marketing. And this is how Trump does it, right? Like this is also like that sort of hope is also how he won the election, right?

43. Like it's really smart. Like if you're a marketing person, like you look at the way Trump markets and it's brilliant because he thinks like five steps ahead of how he's going to market himself. So that way if his opponents do something he doesn't like, he could just blame them, you know, oh, we were going to do all these wonderful things, but the Democrats.

44. Oh, we were going to do all these wonderful things, but the Supreme Court. and all it does is just reiterate support for him even though he didn't fulfill what you know he said he was going to try to do because he's able to point the finger. It's it's brilliant marketing but just know it as that. What's not brilliant marketing is the scam of alt 5.

45. Uh so and and ABTS. Let's briefly talk about this. So Alt 5 is a stock that I've been dumping on since it was about $9. is basically a WLFI trading treasury company where they buy Donald Trump's World Liberty financial token and the whole premise is we're going to issue stock to go buy WLFI. It just provides exit liquidity for the Trump family so they can cash out.

46. So Eric Trump and and you know the Trump family, they go do the circuit. They hit Fox News. They hit people who are literal idiots on crypto. They literally know nothing about crypto other than like, "Hey, I could use this to market my fund." Okay, let me show you the epitome of crypto idiot. Okay, ready for crypto idiot?

47. Wow, crypto idiot. You watch the video, you were like, "Wow, this guy is dumb." If this guy can be so successful by running that, you know, his real estate fund and and his, you know, conferences or whatever, it should give you the greatest optimism that you too can be great. Cuz if this guy could do it, you could do it.

48. But this guy knows nothing about crypto. And he's getting shilled by these guys to buy the American Bitcoin company or frankly alt five because they're doing that circuit. And I mean, look at this. All five since $9 is trending towards my $0 support line because it's a scam. Okay. American seniors are getting ripped off thinking they're getting exposure to some future fintech assets because these people go on Fox News and shill this crap.

49. And the other one is this the American Bitcoin Corporation. Okay, it is down 38% today. It is going full U-turn here. It's a spin-off. HUD basically dumped their server stacks to these people to go mine Bitcoin. And then, you know, the Trump family is like, "Oh, we'll use this to go get some more liquidity for our bull crap.

50. What a surprise. It's collapsing." Anyway, so be careful. People are good at marketing, but it's not a surprise. You're also getting this crypto firm tied to Trump's see share price have in 30 minutes. Wow. 50% of your money gone in 30 minutes. Great. co-founded by Eric Trump wiped out more than half of its value in 30 minutes on Tuesday.

51. I mean, now it's only down 38%. So, I don't know if that's any kind of like consolation, but it shows you like there like our economy isn't really strong. It's faux strong. So, this Atlanta Fed real GDP thing, I think, is a little bit of an illusion right now. Look at this. It's got us at 3.9% for GDP.

52. That's ordinarily really great, but think about it. People are stretching their personal finances with buy now pay later. They're still clinging on to a job, so paycheck to paycheck spending works, but bankruptcies are rising. Private credit issues are brewing. You've got people talking about bailing out developers in Manhattan because it's gotten so damn expensive to deal with Manhattan's idiotic uh uh rent control program.

53. Mind you, when you hear rent control, I just want you to be clear. When you hear rent control, you should think real estate prices up. Okay? The more you do rent control, the more you squeeze prices up because you disincentivize building. It's econ 101. Well, it's probably econ 102 cuz a lot of people haven't taken the class.

54. I And I love the comment section here cuz it's like, you think housing is expensive? Just wait until it's quote free. Or like this is a good one. Only the advocates of government is always the answer could be so idiotic as to presume that more government intrusion intrusion is the answer to the problems caused by government intrusion in the first place.

55. Bam. It's a mic drop. It's so good. So, we have serious problems in the economy. I pray that somehow open AI doesn't take us down. Open AAI alone could be the straw that breaks the entire economy's back because all of that $1.4 trillion dollar of spending that they are projecting shows up at all of the other companies going, "Oh yeah, we're projecting all this growth." Lisa Sue at AMD.

56. She projects growth based on Open AI committing to partner and buy AMD chips to partner with Lisa Sue in Q3 of 2026. So, she's forecasting year-over-year growth based on those orders. If those orders don't show up because OpenAI goes bankrupt because Google effed them, then AMD's forecasts are wrong.

57. And so maybe it's no surprise that when I go to Google Trends and I compare Tesla stock to Google stock to bankruptcy, people are literally searching the word bankruptcy as much as they are searching Tesla stock and Google stock. Take that for what it's worth. This this is it's just a crazy time we're in.

58. And so my my play and and I I just want to be clear. I'm not saying run away and sell everything, okay? Like in the short term, I've been very bullish that between now and December 9th, we see green market. you know, this morning in our alpha report, I'm like, guys, the trend's probably going to keep going up today through December 9th, short-term up, and I think there are actually good plays that are cheap where I'm like, look, if we go into recession, whatever, I'm I'm putting money in that I don't care about for the next 10 years, and I'm not in margin, no debt, paid off all my personal debt.

59. Uh, my real estate company has no bank debt. You know, we just had an amazing fundraising year. I mean, knock on wood. Great. Okay, cool, Kevin. Things are great for you, right? But my point of this is, first of all, to be grateful. But second of all, to say there's a reason I'm not sitting here going, boys and girls, yolo up on debt and margin.

60. And the reason there's a reason I've been saying for the last few months, just be cautious. That's all. And debt is what kills every single time. It's exactly what's killing Micro Strategy, by the way. Uh, I cannot wait for Micro Strategy to go bankrupt because that will be your bottom in Bitcoin. Now, they're bouncing today, especially on this talk about maybe we'll lend Bitcoin, but when they go bankrupt, that will be your bottom in uh uh in Bitcoin.

61. Okay. Uh, shout out to SoFi, by the way. Regains 30. Uh, I use SoFi as a personal account. I love it. It's really good. Um, #notsponsored. Uh, and then for a business account though, I prefer go to mekevin.com/bank cuz it's free. It's it's kind of like the SoFi of business versions. That's what I'm going to call it.

62. Anyway, this is a little side note. Shout out to them. Anyway, that's what I got. Thanks for being here, folks. We'll .