저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시는 코로나 이후 3배 상승했고 조정이 얕아 리테일 투자자 자신감이 커졌다. 신규 투자자 인내가 중요하며 단기 수익 정체기가 올 수 있다. 금은 예상보다 잘 올랐지만 본인은 주식만 이해해 금 비중은 두지 않는다. 자본시장·부동산·은행·에너지전환 등 구조적 성장 섹터를 언급했고, IT서비스는 AI로 사라지지 않는다고 봤다. 유가 안정 시 인도 석유유통사(OMC) 매력을 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Let's welcome uh Mr. Ramde Agraal, chairman and co-founder of Motila Losfal Group joining us on the show right now. Ramde sir, thank you so much for your time. It's uh yet again great chatting with you and Rams at ET now we are celebrating 16 years of our journey and we want to thank you as well because you have been an integral part of our journey have always taken the time out to come on the channel and guide our viewers as well.
So firstly uh wanted to have your take on how you have seen the markets transitioning uh throughout these many years and from here on how do you see the market uh going ahead uh your first thoughts on that. Yeah. Uh thanks for uh this opportunity and congratulations on 16 year of wonderful journey and my best wishes for very prolonged uh you know great future ahead.
Uh but coming back to your question about uh see actually markets have been uh I mean markets have been actually very resolent if you look at a very long term you know 10 15 uh 17 years it has been very predictable market and uh uh we have been I mean in last 16 years if you see we have seen 20 uh 16 years means we are talking about something like post GFC which is about 2008 9 so after that only Covid has been one of the big uh breakdown that was market has been very very nice and scaling up and from 2020 postcoid we are seeing virtual boom from 8 9,000 postcoid uh covid correction to now 24 25,000 so 3x in 5 years so it's a it's a very sustained rise and it is very resilent I mean good thing is that not only it is rising uh the corrections are very very shallow uh and uh so that is giving the confidence even uh it has given a lot more confidence to retail investors and uh so yeah journey has been very good.
G thank you very much on behalf of first everybody from ETNa you've been a big supporter of ETNa you've been very commemorative with your time you've been uh a commemorative especially at turning points and you've always uh taken care of our interview request so on behalf of everyone from team now our viewers first thank you very much for being a big supporter yeah so yes now uh so what is new here well new is that I'm again thanking you thanking you for being a supporter of ET.
Now like they always say that you should remember your friends on your birthday. Seek blessing from elders and guidance from mentors and friends like you. So I'm I'm always there if you have time to interview me. Absolutely no issue. birthday gift and the birthday gift for our viewers would be moneymaking ideas from Ram Gh uh so I was talking to some people they saying that market is dull what do we do so I said expect little lower return and get ready for a bigger return you know longer you longer you wait for a low return I think higher will be the return on the back end.
So I think uh this is a time for a little patience today market is good but uh generally I think all the geopolitical challenges uh uh the patience is a lot more required whenever the external environment becomes hostile. So right now we are going through slightly troub uh patience is the key one should I mean the lot of people have come new in the system almost like 7 60 70% people are less than 5 years into the market so I think they would have not their patience will be tested for the first time so they should be ready to provide that necessary patience no return kind of a zone for some time and then journey again starts so my uh sincere request to all the new investors would be that they should be ready to provide that patience which is the biggest fertilizer for long-term investing.
Ramdev G in last 15 years if I look at ballpark like we say in Hindi moti gold and equity markets have given almost parallel returns now with gold you've not done any hard work you always had advantage of liquidity with equity markets in last 15 years you've taken big knocks of volatility in covid and then in 20134 so if gold has given returns which are almost equivalent to equities u What does that tell you that which asset class will outperform uh going forward?
Because gold has given you good returns without any stress. Equity has given you all kind of stress and has not given you great returns in 15 years. No, there there has been a downdraft for the gold must be low. Uh of course, gold has done much better than I ever thought it will do. Uh one is that there's no outperformance to further gold performance.
If gold has done 15% or index has done 15%. Uh I think I must have done at least 20%. So that 5% is not possible in gold. It's only possible in equities and the I mean some of the guys might have done 25% 30% also. That's not possible in gold unless you leverage and those kind of things. So uh yes I mean gold has outperformed my own wildest expectation.
But uh and it has emerged globally also as very important bucket of value. Uh so uh so the people who believe in gold of course it's a good good news to them and uh right now it looks very what do you call bullish but I I would not uh I would not put anything onto the gold. Uh I'm pretty comfortable you know one of the thing which Mr.
Buffett said is that do what you understand you know. So I understand only equities. So I will I'm pretty good staying with equities. Um Randy, hi. Always good having you today on the show. But you know I was telling someone today that when I met Ramio G three years back on Diwali, he said capital markets is going to be that one structural story.
And I was just you know admiring the way that you actually pick up big trends in the market. Well capital markets theme Ramo G is not going anywhere in a hurry hopefully. So but what are the other big trends that you foresee now emerging in the markets? No, I still think capital market remains a big uh big opportunity because it is asset light and it is very scalable.
Uh and the firms particularly is opportunity size is one. Second is the scalability within the uh within the what do you call opportunity itself like uh if you look at the global asset management companies now we they don't talk in billions. They only talk in trillions. I mean like there are $8 trillion $10 trillion kind of a single asset management company.
So those kind of a as our AUM grows we'll also see that 105% of the total AUM would be with one AMC like in India on out of 40 lakhs equities. I think uh SBI must be having almost like uh 78 lakh crores. So I think those kind of uh those kind of consolidated positions will be there on a much more enlarged asset base when asset base goes from 40 lakh crores to 400 lakh crores.
I think these giants will have their due share uh in the larger pie also. So that kind of a capital market and capital market is very uh I would say at least to me it looks like very smoothly compounding and scaling as a GDP of the country grows and uh the entire system remains intact. So uh so the capital market opportunity still is a pretty large opportunity and now markets have valued it also somewhat.
When we talked about 3 years back I think valuations were very cheap. Now I think people are realizing that uh and it is showing up in the valuation. So less less of less attractive opportunity than what it was three years back but uh nevertheless longer term that opportunity still stays pretty intact.
But going to other segments, I think uh uh if the oil price stabilizes about $65 or $60, I think all the OMC's which uh which are there at current you know currently at literally one book or one and a half book 10 time 12 times for their size of the businesses that seems to be kind of a great opportunity and uh uh it is very early trend but let's see I mean the government also has to be supporting in terms of policym but that looks to be a big trend out here.
So I'm using the nominal GDP as the benchmark here Ramdev G 11 to 12%. for next three years which are the businesses because investing like you always say is buying a good business. Which are the businesses which will grow faster than the normal GDP? Which are the businesses which will grow in and around the normal GDP?
And which are the businesses, themes or sectors which will grow in single digit. M so like the real estate looks to be real estate defense uh energy transitions uh capital market uh I mean these are few things which are coming immediately to my mind they will grow at more like in more like 20 22% 25% even banking banking on the whole the kind of policy we are seeing the the regulator wants higher growth credit growth rate so if the 13 14% if they go back to the trend uh credit growth rate in that case uh midsize banks well-managed banks they will grow at about 18 20%.
or more than that. So yes, I mean there are whole lot of sectors uh who who will definitely grow. I mean almost like one and a half times of nominal GDP growth rates. Ramo which you know you've um been extremely bullish on is real estate which you have always maintained that it's also a structural story.
A lot of the positive is already in the price. The real estate sector is a well discovered sector now. But do you think with RBI's push with all that RBI is doing with regards to norms now and infra lending etc as well this sector is here to stay and there's still money to be made. I mean you have to be selective what companies you buy because it's a very very large sector.
Uh and uh the companies have their own limitation in terms of execution. every city has two three uh very large reality uh reality company. So uh but then if you look at the whole country as you go from current $4 trillion GDP to $8 trillion or $20 trillion I think the biggest game in town is going to be the real estate company.
Anybody makes money anywhere in stock market anywhere first thing they go is and splurge in buying a better house good house and better house. If somebody's uh has two bedroom, he'll go for three-bedroom, they'll go for better locality. So I think uh real wealth effect of uh stock market and of the broader economy will be reflected in uh uh reality boom and uh that is what we are witnessing and the I mean it's just about 3 four years old kind of thing till about covid things were absolutely in dumps.
uh of course they have come back from there and a lot of companies are listed also and a lot of companies are going to come up but in this space we'll find some unknown uh tier three company or tier 2 companies or uh small companies making big splash in next 5 10 years you've been a big vary of these uh high digit high growth businesses especially the digital businesses yeah so that I forgot to tell but that is one thing which is going to be across I mean There's going to be so many companies from the digital side.
The way US market is looking today that 8 10 digital companies are uh kind of a dominating the entire index movement or corporate profitable movement. I think those moments will also come maybe after five seven years in terms of significance. Say Ramde G that you need to figure out what is in the price whether it is good news or bad news whether it is good you know whether it is earnings or whether it is compounding.
So as we look into the future and if one has to look at next 12 to 18 months from a market standpoint what is in the price and what is not in the price that is company wise Niko you know you have to go very companywide listen to the story eat drinks uh and spend time with them and understand the story at that time you uh you are able to figure out at least uh the way I go about doing it is spend a full day with the company at the end of the day you'll be able to figure out whether it is in the price or you are way above the I mean underlying value is more than the price or uh price is more than the value that you will be able to figure out by spending full day with the company talk about a theme where question marks have been raised about the viability and the future existence and that's a good old IT services massive wealth creators but from given what is happening in AI the maturity curve the demand do you think these stocks will continue to underperform and one should not call them as contra or value buyers at all.
I'm uh I'm not too sure that world will go without uh IT services companies like Infosys, Tesus and all but AI computing or what AI role uh I mean role of uh services companies will be changing for sure and they have been changing right throughout from a complete body shopping in '90s to uh project implementation and now very large complex projects and now the new angle which has come up is the AI computing.
So uh how I mean how relevant they will be in uh in this new they will be relevant I don't have any doubts the issue is are their role going to go up or or they will go through his stagnancy process or some kind of a contraction also because it budgets I mean in my own company IT budgets are not going down it spend is continuing and it is always short your projects are not getting completed in time so it's not that just AI is coming and eating away all the services no it's not happening in real Yes, there is some exciting development about the AI.
Some of the things can be done faster but uh I'm not the right person to pass a judgment but I don't think it is down and out kind of situation. No. Well Ramde G once again on behalf of everyone from ET now thank you. Thank you for your support. Thank you for your time. Thank you for your mentorship and thank you for being part of ET now always on important days on turning points.
And thank you for that lovely birthday gift. You gave our viewers a lot of hints as to where the next big uh you know wealth creation idea could happen. Thank you. All right, let's take a break. You know sometimes in the show you just want to extend our chat and today was one of those conversations where you perhaps just wanted to say to time compulsions but we have to take a break.
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