저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제는 생각보다 강하며 임금 인상에도 불구하고 인플레이션은 완화 추세. 연내 금리 인하 2~3회 가능성 언급(확정 X). 에너지 가격 하락이 인플레 둔화 요인. BlackRock 자산 10조 달러 회복, 5년간 1.9조 달러 신규 자금 유입. 비트코인 ETF는 합법적 저축수단으로 정당화되는 방향. ESG 대신 지속가능발전 부문(탄소포집, 재생에너지)은 성장 중.
다듬은 글
So, let's get straight to the point. After falling for most of the session, the market is struggling to recover, at least returning to the initial levels of the day. As you can see, the Dow is down 159 points, overall trading is a bit lower today. Of course, this is wholesale inflation recorded in the last month of 2023 .
The producer price index for December was lower than expected — 1% year-on-year, which is 0.1% less than in November. And while inflation is moving in the right direction , it's arguably the first round of earnings reports that are weighing on the markets. The Dow is poised to snap a two-day winning streak as United Health Group took about 130 points off the stock market, even as the insurance giant beat revenue and profit expectations.
In its fourth-quarter report, the company reported that medical expenses rose 16%. The four largest US banks are reporting mixed results today. JP Morgan, Citi, BofA, Wells Fargo—all faltered, although Citi managed to turn things around. Citigroup rose 1%. We'll take a closer look at these reports later on the air.
But first, let's talk about earnings from BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, which posted strong fourth-quarter results and announced its $12 billion acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners. This caps a historic week on Wall Street , as the SEC finally approved long-awaited spot Bitcoin ETFs from 11 companies, including BlackRock.
By the way, Bitcoin ETFs officially started trading yesterday, and on the first day, trading volume reached $4.6 billion. Impressive. So who better to talk about this than BlackRock CEO Larry Fink himself, who is with us today to discuss this along with Charlie Gasparino. Charlie, you have the floor.
Thank you, Ashley. I'm a little nervous. I'm sitting in Liz's chair, but I think we can handle it. Do you like it? Yes, it is very convenient. Don't get too used to it . She...She comes back on Monday. Ahem. Have a wonderful day. Big deal. You know, 10 trillion, again 10 trillion in assets. I'll ask you about that in a minute.
And we'll move on to other issues, including Bitcoin and ETFs. But I have to ask you about this. Right at the beginning. I saw Bill Ackman on CNBC today, and for some reason he mentioned you and said, " You know, Larry thinks there's going to be three—or two— rate cuts." I say three. Larry was wrong.
I don't know why he had to mention you, but it seems to me that every time your name is mentioned, the ratings go up and it gets a lot of attention. What do you think about this ? Are you going to stick to your forecast of two declines instead of three? He seems to think inflation is slowing down enough, apparently.
And we saw yesterday's inflation rate, it's a little higher, you know... in my opinion, inflation is a little more stable, at 3%. I'm not going to say whether it will be two or three declines. But I think inflation is more stable than...I didn't hear what Bill said, but the important thing is that the U.S.
economy is stronger than most people think. Yes. Companies have problems finding good specialists. I'm still reading about this wage inflation. You fired some people. Citigroup has carried out layoffs. Yes. But, after all, the overall number of employees has increased, right? I mean, and I think the headlines are focused on those kinds of things, but they don't cover the fact that the number of people being hired is being overlooked.
So I think the economy is in very good shape. By the way, I think the economy will be stronger if there are two or three easings at the end of this year. So, I don't think there's anything to argue about here. I tend to believe that our economy is stronger than some people think. I believe that innovation, ingenuity, is what drives this economy forward.
Let's be frank. Those who earn low wages have witnessed a very large increase in the minimum wage . These people who... So you're saying that the salary level is increasing now. Finally. Oh, yes, we raised the minimum wage. Many organizations pay above the minimum level. So if someone was getting $10 an hour, they are now getting $20 an hour.
All this money is being put back into the economy. This is not the same as someone who already earns a lot and has received a raise. they don't need to spend more money in the economy. Doesn't inflation remain high? Are n't the prices still high? We are talking about a declining inflation rate . Is there a difference here that is worth paying attention to?
Well, I think one of the main reasons for the decline in inflation is that we've seen a dramatic drop in energy prices. OPEC has already cut production three times , and they are struggling to keep energy prices around $80 per barrel. So, do you think that there is really a price decrease, a real decrease in energy prices and at gas stations?
Of course, yes. We are seeing this right now . But we don't see a decrease in wages. We see its further growth. And that's exactly what Chairman Powell was talking about recently . They are now focusing on salaries and other areas, addressing the issue of inflation. We'll see where the economy ends up over the course of the year.
This will be a turbulent year . Yes. You know, since we're talking about Aman, I have to ask about this because it's everywhere, and you're a broad-minded person. You discuss everything. I keep reading that he became some kind of education reformer. So he, he... He essentially spoke out against Claudine Gay, Harvard, the president of Harvard .
He now says he will create a think tank to reform education because it is too "woke " and focused on DEI. What do you think about this? Do you think he's right or is this a waste of time? Is this a waste of time? I approve of what Bill is doing. I think he has his own opinion. He expresses it based on facts.
He expresses it with great strength of spirit. Look, he's spending his own money. He believes in it . This is democracy. I applaud what Bill is doing. Do you think his assessment of higher education in the United States is accurate? I think there are universities that have gone too far, and there are those that haven't .
I don't want to make general conclusions. My collaboration with New York University has been going on for the past 30 years. I think it hasn't been targeted for things like this, and it's being managed better. But are there incidents at every university that scare me? Yes. But for me, it shouldn't be a core component of how we move the economy forward, although it is an important point.
OK. Assets are back up to 10 trillion. The interesting thing is that I'm following your assets, you know, that's what nerds like me do in business magazines. So, it seems like they'll drop to 8.5 trillion in 2022. Yes. It starts to increase and you're back to 10 trillion again. Yes. Um, is ESG back?
I mean, is it because No, no, no. Charles, I know you hate these letters, but I mean, you know, I mean right now, a fact that I think is very important for our shareholders and our customers to understand: Over the past five years, customers have entrusted us with $1.9 trillion in new funds. These are not market fluctuations.
Forget about markets going up or down. We have received mandates worth $1.9 trillion, and this applies to clients all over the world. These are clients among pension funds. This is in the area of wealth management . These are insurance companies. No firm has ever received assets of this scale. Even though some people took the money, I mean the guys from the "red" states.
Well , let's be frank. If my net assets increased by 1.9 trillion, um, how about that? In the fourth quarter of this year, we received a billion dollars in new funds every day. This is simply incredible. Okay, so there are people who took money from us , right? And our job is to protect the money of each of our clients.
Our job is to be a fiduciary for each of our clients' money, right? Um, and, and, and how, how, how, as a person like me who follows trends, would n't you say that's incredible? Unbelievable, and I won't use the word or letters ESG? But is sustainable development making a comeback? After much discussion, if we want to single out a subgroup of sustainable development, it is growing.
She did n't disappear anywhere. Okay, so for example, we invested $550 million, Charlie, in Occidental Petroleum as they become a world leader in carbon capture. And this is in Texas . They have ambitions, you know, to build 30 more of these plants, each costing about a billion and a half dollars. Um, and we cooperate with them.
So we're working side by side with one of the largest energy companies in the United States, and they believe they have the technology to decarbonize, and that's where we see huge amounts of money. I was in Asia recently, and government officials across Asia are saying that we are very concerned that we need to ensure energy security.
Energy security is becoming a major topic of conversation everywhere. They are a little annoyed that OPEC continues to cut production because they don't want oil prices to fall. So they ask us, can we help them invest in wind and solar energy in their countries? They will still use everything they have.
They have coal, they will use it . So is it fair to say that ESG is now growth, or is sustainability growth? Yes. Continue. Yes, I know it makes you shiver, but is it felt more abroad than here? Well, thanks to the IRA in the United States, it's growing here too. And let's talk about Texas, one of the big states, right?
It is the number one state in hydrocarbon production, but it is also the largest in the US in wind power and solar power. So, there is a business that will continue to grow. AB: Absolutely. And look at any trend, maybe it's Bitcoin or something else, everything becomes too positioned, overvalued, hyped, right?
But the reality is: if there is a fundamental reason for this, and when I talk to government officials around the world, they want to find greater independence in their energy position . A country like India, growing at 8% per year, has a huge need for energy. They need to invest in wind and solar energy, and the amount of capital required is enormous.
Do n't you think you went too far with the promotion of ESG at some point? Well, I never thought I was where I should be more focused on most things when I... I read your speeches. They were pretty moderate, you know. Right. But what could I be more competent at, right? When I talked about ESG, I actually meant sustainable development.
I never meant other letters, and those other letters have different meanings for everyone. I think that regarding E ( ecology), we can all talk about it . We can all debate this, but as for G (governance), there is actually very little debate about corporate governance. Let's move on to Bitcoin, because I think it's a big deal.
The way I see it is: once Larry Fink put his signature on it, it was supposed to pass. You don't have to take credit for it, but you can. Did you promote this? Because Gensler hates him. They've been putting this off for years . There are still many people who hate him. So he probably still hates it.
So I won't talk about Gary, but... But I believed, and it still is —and this is Gary's position—that it is still one of the vehicles for illegal activity. So I think no one can deny that, even though I changed my mind and came to a different interpretation three years ago, there is a lot of truth in this .
There are many opportunities here. This is a great savings tool, and this is where the debate can arise: is this a good savings tool? Do you know how it works? A bunch of computers calculate everything. But the problem is that if people believe that this is an asset that can be used cross-border — and let's be honest, if you're in a country where you're afraid of your government, and maybe that's one of the reasons why China banned it.
M-hm. If you're in a government where you ... if you're in a country where you're afraid for your future, afraid of your government, or you're scared that your government is devaluing its currency because of too much deficit, like we are, I'm not going to talk about that . This is a little "elephant" in the room, you could say it's a great potential savings tool in the long run.
And this, as I said, is like digital gold. And I, and I believe, But you still can't buy a slice of pizza with it. Isn't it strange that we... But you can't buy a slice of pizza with palladium or gold. No, but you can do something with them. I can get something...I mean, people use gold for different things, right?
But people can buy and sell their Bitcoin. It is no different from gold. So it's very... What is it? But gold is used, for example, in... jewelry. Jewelry and, you know, iPhones. I think there's gold in some electronics. More like silver. Silver, but you know what I mean? There is a practical application.
Bitcoin is literally a ledger, right? This is a registry, and it is an international registry. It is cross-border. It is bigger than any government. I agree with you. I believe it should have exploded after FTX, but it didn't. Um, let me... There are a lot of unscrupulous players in any startup, and this was a great example.
I think it's becoming more legitimate now. I believe that the emergence of the Bitcoin ETF is an example of us legitimizing it. We create more security. Well, let me ask you this . Will you make another ETF ? What about the XRP ETF? I know you have Ether there. I...we... How about XRP? Can you answer this?
I can't. Do n't you want me to? I want. Well , I can't. OK. They're already showing me how to round up. Thank you, Charlie. You are always a great conversationalist. You are always on top. You are the best at this . Remember, he founded Larry Figstar. I only know this because I'm a fan. I started Black Rock from scratch.
That's 10 trillion. This amazes me. We'll get back to you. That's remarkable, Larry. Great material. Charlie the fan. Thank you very much too.
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