저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
경기는 고용 호조로 견고하며 연착륙·무(無)침체 베팅이 강화되고 있다. 블랙스톤 등 부동산 매입은 경기 저점 신호로 해석된다. 5년 기대인플레가 상승해 연준의 금리인하 시점은 9~11월로 늦춰질 가능성이 크다. 단기적으로 이번 주 수요일 CPI가 핵심 변수이며, 결과에 따라 금리인하 관련주가 흔들릴 수 있다.
다듬은 글
there's good news and bad news about the economy and this week is going to be one of the most critical weeks that we've had all year long I'm going to start by first breaking down exactly one of the concerns one of the concerns we face now is that broadening employment growth which is actually really great for Humanity and people and the economy and GDP across the board broadening employment growth potentially leaves the Federal Reserve in a place where maybe they need to wait a little bit longer before cutting GDP estimates right now are sitting at 25% via the Atlanta real now GDP measures and one of the reasons TS Lombard suggests we have time to wait before Cuts is even though Tech and finance has had way more employment than our previous trend line which means we have this extra sort of level of fat right here here that's all the extra sort of fat of extra employment we don't have that extra fat in fact we're too lean in the category of restaurant Health retail versus prior Trends and that leanness as well as in all other private sectors that leanness which is below Trend could actually lead to a sustainable continued beat of jobs numbers look at the jobs numbers that we just got Friday we substantially beat everyone's expectations I mean there was no economists the last week that thought we were going to get the jobs numbers that we did in terms of how high of of a number we got and we even got a positive revision for once uh in January the January numbers were revised up for employment the survey this Friday was 214 we got 303,000 uh and we even saw the household survey move up so across the board that last employment or board is like this economy is doing great so obviously the good news here is the economy is doing great and what does well with the economy well things that tend to do extremely well uh regular spending that's not to say that consumers aren't loading up in debt but really while I do agree the next recession could be driven by a Consumer Debt bubble basically because people will buy now pay later everything and eventually you'll have to refinance all your buy out pay laters and if you can't do that because you lose your job well then even a problem but that's nowhere close I don't think I think that's still years out what's actually much more interesting is like what we wrote over on ec.com is companies like Blackstone are now making bets that the real estate market is bottoming they are now acquiring air communities it's a luxury real estate reate uh that's redundant real estate reat but anyway uh it's at a 25% premium for $10 billion because they see the recovery the pillars of the real estate recovery coming into place they bought a stake in a $17 billion loan portfolio backed by a lot of real estate last year in Signature Bank in December they spent seven or or have agreed to A7 billion partnership with digital realy for data centers uh and then earlier this year they bought a a 38,000 single family home portfolio for $35 billion Blackstone doesn't do this if they don't if they think the economy is about to crash or we're about to go into a recession so really recession bets are kind of Le leaving the table this is the same thing as what we saw with uh well what Janet yellen's been yapping about which is hey no recession soft Landing right now we do have some issues that come with that one of the issues that comes with that is the Fed funds forecast for rate Cuts is is starting to shift the market is starting to pair expectations of Fed rate Cuts we went into the year thinking we were going to get rate Cuts uh in the neighborhood of six to seven times uh well now we're only pricing in a little bit more than rate cuts for the year the blue line is the Market's expectation of the FED funds rate and the pink line or purple line here is where the FED has forecast via their summary of economic projections where rates will go now the issue with this is jome Powell I think is stuck between a rock and a hard place because he keeps telling us that inflation expectations are anchored that they're well anchored and they've remained well anchored but at some point I think jome Powell either needs to give up the lie or start projecting reality here but he might not and I'll tell you why he might not but these are inflation break evens which are one measure of inflation expectations you could say that the ave been stable but when you look at the five-year break evens what you find is we're at the highest level we've been over the last 5 years and we've been skyrocketing on inflation Break Even since December this is leading uh bonds to move up you've got a uh you know a sell-off in the bond market it's not a surprise to me that you have a sell-off in the bond market uh you're at 4.42 on the 10 year right now why is it not a surprise to me because right now you don't have to buy bonds to get a delicious yield I'm not affiliated with this product so this is not a sponsorship uh but look at this you could just go right here go to a Vanguard treasury money market fund to Ticker vusxx I get nothing by you investing in This I Promise uh have nothing to do with them uh I I don't even invest in them personally I use the Fidelity version of this but I actually think the Vanguard one's a little bit better if you have exposure to the Vanguard one or you already have accounts with them but anyway the Vanguard one 5.27% 7day sec yield you do have a nine basis point expense ratio and a 3K investment minimum but look at this you're getting 5.27% minus this you know 0.9 so you're getting 5.18% on on a t bills you're at like 5.1% you're getting more money in this money market than you're getting on t- bills right now now of course if rates go down this can fluctuate but right now expectations are that rates might actually go up not down see the problem is repeating the mistake of the 70s where you cut rates and then all of a sudden you have to raise rates again and you send a signal to the market that the FED doesn't know what the hell it's doing and the FED is already on thin ice they screwed up with the inflationist transitory argument with how late they were to raise rates and yes while it may be true that eventually inflation will be transitory it wasn't good enough to help anchor inflation expectations down so you create this nasty risk factor now that personally I think the fed's probably going to have to wait to cut rates until September or November before actually driving uh uh rate Cuts because if they cut too soon with these sort of job numbers and these lagging gains for job numbers then what happens we risk having to raise rates again and then we break inflation expectations that would be the worst case scenario especially as we're seeing wages also rise remember folks California just raised its fast food minimum wages to $20 an hour unless of course you're associated with Gavin Newsome that's really a topic for a different video the Panera Bread discounts but one of the things you have to consider and a lot of people won't as say go well that's just cforia that doesn't affect the rest of the world or or or the United States economy well according to Bloomberg intelligence it does they actually think that ECI the employment cost index could come in 2% higher than where would otherwise come in simply because of California's wage increases now again I I'm supportive of people making more money I think that's actually what expands this economy it's one of the reasons you could see I think a company like Amazon hit a crazy new all-time high people just have more money they make more money and yes prices have gone up but now people are finally getting real wage gains again we're still behind you know people still have some catching up to do but I think that catching up is really suppored by what we're seeing in labor market factors and that could really Drive cons assum a consumer-led recovery and a strong economy and no recession now of course we know that Unemployment uh lags right when this turns and we start getting Mass layoffs then that's when we start having rapid problems but we're just not seeing that we look at layoff trackers layoff trackers are like a third as high as what they were in uh 2023 at the beginning of 23 but on top of that you have to consider this layoff trackers uh are occurring a lot in Tech and finance but in Tekken Finance that's where you have the excess jobs anyway you're not really getting as many layoffs in restaurant Health retail certainly not government if anything that's where you're getting a lot of job gains so this econom is on a lot firmer footing than what we'd like to think now don't get me wrong gold prices are going up partly because Chinese investors are going all on gold ETFs because they think their economy is going to start or their government their well it's basically the same over there their Central Bank and their government uh is going to start uh basically stimulating again so they're buying gold as a hedge uh some people see gold as a fear indicator that things are about to go really bad and it is true fiscal spending is off the walls uh and off the charts you've got Consumer Debt which is at record highs but again if people have the money to pay it and we're not getting the leading indicator yet of layoffs or even War notices which we're not war notices are relatively stable compared to last year if anything they're slightly trending down then maybe it's too soon to say the FED needs to go for Rapid Cuts remember they could cut 2% in a day why do they need to Signal the start of rate Cuts now and start moving down 25 bips probably don't have to frankly that at this point is not necessarily bad for the stock market anymore the stock market is actually moving up as rate projections are moving up so you're actually sort of saying all right economy is good rates aren't going to come down immediately party keeps going so you've kind of switched to this good news is good news environment as opposed to oh no yields up stocks down not seeing that as much anymore so maybe it doesn't even really matter maybe this Wednesday will be the biggest tell after all this Wednesday is a day we not only get the FED minutes which kind of already expect to hear the same thing we've heard from the FED meeting so don't really care about that what I care most about is going to be that CPI data the CPI data for uh this month is critical why because you have CPI month over month expected to come in at .3 CPI month-over-month core expected to come in AT3 as well and this data set for March is almost the equivalent of three CPI reports put together because if we get a bad CPI report this Wednesday then it means January February March are all bad and it's going to be bad news for the economy well maybe not bad news for the economy but it's going to be bad news in the short term for for rate cuts and then of course stocks that relate to rate Cuts if we get a good CPI report it kills the bad news of January February and it basically just means solar eclipse baby moon oh but what does that mean potentially going into CPI morning Wednesday it potentially means we might end up seeing some aggressive selling if it's anything like last week before the jobs dat on Thursday Tuesday so I wouldn't be surprised if we get some aggressive selling tomorrow into the close as people get nervous about oh no cpis tomorrow pull somebody off and if we get a good CPI report plow in like back up the truck plowing in um so watch your trades over the next uh 24 to 48 because this this CPI report could be the most important report of 2024 let's see what happens keep in mind if it's bad you've already got people like Jamie dime and the CEO of JP Morgan Chase saying yeah you know rates might go all the way up to 8% or mor ising in CR wai
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