저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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테슬라 로보택시 발표(8/8)를 앞두고 실제 수익화 가능성에 회의적 입장. 일반 소유자가 차량을 로보택시로 굴려 연 10만달러 패시브 인컴을 얻는 건 망상이며, 로보택시 요금은 마일당 센트 수준으로 붕괴할 수 있다고 주장. 테슬라는 자체 운영 중심의 니치 제품이 될 것이고 $25k 저가차 취소는 일반 소비자 기준으로는 맞다고 봄. 단기 2026 EPS에 부정적, 장기적으로는 테슬라 우위 전망. 강의 판매 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hey in this video You're going to hear a lot about my thoughts about Tesla and robotaxi just remember that we're going to change the price on the courses on building your wealth and the stock trade alerts as soon as I wake up tomorrow so you better hop to it email us at staff mein.com if you have questions and we'll honor the pricing so we can make sure we get back to your pricing questions so email us if you have questions at staff atme kevin.com wow today was an absolutely crazy day first of all Tesla went absolutely AP and then ham like what we were down 6% after being only down 33 basis points so we went from 33 basis points to down 6% to down 3% to up 4% in the after hours what yeah part of that has to do with Elon Musk suggesting that now on August 8th we are going to introduce robotaxi so we need to digest all of this piece by piece but the first thing that we need to do is we need to share this tweet so I sent a tweet and I mentioned this I said I started on social media fulltime 7 years ago two things have always been true number one I've always loved Lauren more and more every single day and number two no matter what I will always tell you how I feel even if that's not the popular opinion and I'll never stop see when AMC was ripping I had a problem with the AP shares and I was really honest with my opinion and a lot of people were very upset about my opinion and they just chose to not follow me anymore because they thought I was anti their movement when the reality was I was reading through the and trying to be honest when during covid I was honest about my concerns about certain programs versus others people thought that I was trying to hurt them but the reality was I was trying to help and the same has been true of stocks that we've talked about on the channel I've been optimistic about pelaton but then I said when pelaton was $113 oh my God they're having to drop prices it's time to sell boy that sounds eily similar or oh my gosh shift might go bankrupt it's time to sell at $9 oh my gosh FTX is about to go bankrupt we all need to go get out and people are like no no no everything's fine sand bankman freed said everything's fine and I'm like dude get out it is um it's very difficult to be on social media because you have two choices you could be a transitory social media agent and that's somebody who comes on and usually the way that works is they regurgitate uh whatever is popular so you go on sort of social media go oh that's the sentiment oh that's what people are replying with oh that's what people are going to think okay and then they take the most popular likes or most liked posts or most liked videos and they regurgitate the top five most popular arguments oh yeah well buid went down 40% so Tesla's fine it's nothing to do with the problems Tesla is facing and it's embarrassing when you compare it to Hyundai Nissan Toyota GM Ford but oh my gosh that would require data analysis which maybe we've posted all of that already on ec.com but whatever so The Challenge on social media is if you want to just do what's popular that's easy you could just read what's popular regurgitate that and then congratulations everybody likes you one of the things I found uh that's very hard about social media is expressing what you believe when you're early like when I was early on discussing Co stimulus or when I was early on warning about FTX or when I was early about warning about pelaton or shift or when I was early about warning about tattoo Chef or when I was early about warning about spaxs and when I was early about saying you should get into Cash above and all above anything else and when I was early about saying stay away from bonds because they're about to tank or stocks cuz they're about to tank nobody wants to hear that you're just a flip-flopper but the reality is we should not be in a position where we're so worried about what's wrong or right we should be worried about what's the best thing to do now going forward see that's very different wrong or right is hindsight analysis what to do now is going forward and so that's where we have to talk about Tesla all uh well also at the same time we should just briefly mention that you know there were some comments today where people are like oh you should talk about your losses as well as your gains yeah I had a $17,000 gain on a trade today that was great but I did also have uh some other gains and losses I had $1,000 gain a $17,000 gain and a $1,400 loss so technically I'm only up 166 now I did mention that but I mentioned that in the last video at the end of the last video and I should have mentioned it up front sorry for that we do have a coupon code expiring tonight and I'm going to go to bed after making this video I'm pretty dang worn out and I'm pretty dang tired because it's been a roller coaster day and I had a lot of deadlines today and so we're going to talk Robo taxi but I don't think I'm going to get back to all these bundle emails so you still got a few hours before we raise the price on the uh courses on building your wealth by the way I will say shout out to the people joining there are a lot of people joining the courses on building your wealth most people right now are either buying the stocks and psychology of money group or they're buying the stocks and psychology of money group and the real estate bundle I'll give you an example uh we got Jesus who just bought stocks and psych Zachary just bought actually do-it-yourself property management and Rental renovations bundle up from some of the other courses we've had that one's great because we've got a lot of other people in that one stocks and psych we got Daniel uh Ricardo Constantine Fernando Christian Pat ralo Steven ashgar Mandy William Marcelo um many others here but anyway thank you thank you so much for joining and do note that I just posted a message in the Discord and said that if anybody has lecture suggestions please mention them because I am going to go through another recording session of new lectures so if you watch our lectures and you think something's missing I will add the new lectures completely for free so that's going to come within the next uh week and a half here so stay tuned for that but in this video we we we really need to talk about Tesla robotaxi so I think we should just be honest and we should be honest and transparent first of all I love Lauren but second of all I had uh multiple debates with a group of uh Tesla balls hyper balls I'll call them this is crazy I'm sorry but you You' have been too long in Ross's and and Gary's school I'm sorry of all I'm happy to hear what you're saying but wait wait wait wait wait I'm happy to hear what you're saying but that's that's a popular thing to say because people like to say these populist slams or whatever but that's disrespectful first of all uh and second of all I they're not my dad I I I I listen to everybody equally I'm here I'm not talking to Ross and Gary I haven't talked to them at all today I'm here listening and talking to y'all so we don't have to start with that the issue with that is that short-term noise does potentially affect hiring Recruitment and talent compared to other AI organizations so that is something to keep in mind we do want to attract AI talent to Tesla you want the best AI Talent there there so that leaves us stuck with q1 Q2 which right now aren't looking too great and then I know you want to buy and you need 10 days but stop talking down the stock that's all you're trying to do it's all good that's that's that's not that's not true at all well well hold on again it's it's completely disrespectful to my argument well hold on hold on I I I I gave you all a chance to talk I made a very respectful argument I said I agreed with you with the licensing I said there's a political risk you didn't mention regarding attracting talent to Tesla and I also made a respectful argument and said I actually made a prediction and I said I think we're going to start with a small scale Robo taxi launch where they compete with the zukes and the likes of weo and that they can expand a hundred times faster than the others these are actually extremely bullish statements I just think they're realistic statements they don't help us q1 Q2 duh so then I was going to say what does this do for 26 27 28 but then you did cut me off I think for 26 27 28 that's probably when Tesla really starts pricing in the explosive growth because that's when wall Street's going to be able to start realizing aha Tesla's doing what the wh's doing but look at how they can scale a 100 times faster look at I mean Tesla AI just posted Tesla hit 1 billion miles of FSD so this is great like Tesla has so many wonderful things going for it but I just want to be clear I like it's it it is rude for me to be here and then you make that accusation and this is the second time now I'm asking you to please be respectful I'm being very respectful I I I will be respectful Kevin and I appreciate you hyper bols I can see no wrong and that's okay I still respect them I uh I'm I'm not as optimistic as they are I uh I do not think that full self-driving Vehicles as Robo taxis are worth $1 per mile I'm sorry Brett I think that's wrong from Arc I respect you I like you I'm sorry Tasha from Arc I'm sorry everybody else who thinks you're going to make a dollar per mile submitting your car to a robo taxi Fleet I think that is delusional I think it is straight up delusional to think that you were going to have bought a Tesla and you are going to somehow turn your Tesla into $100,000 of passive income annually that is what I heard people talk about today and I think it is straight up delusional now I understand the hopium the hopium is that we'll be able to take out our phones and go well we all have uh self-driving Vehicles should be easy just submit them to the fleet no no because when and if that happens trust me in every single local you'll have 100 Teslas looking for about one person willing to ride the demand for robo taxis compared to the demand for Uber and Lyft will not be one to one the demand for robo taxis will only rise when the price collapses and then Uber and Lyft will collapse and go bankrupt and then the demand for robo taxis will exist at probably cents per mile now I'm not saying if you drive 5 miles you're only going to pay 5 cents there'll be some base fee some minimum fee but you also have to offset the charging depreciation vehicle investment so the ROI for the investor in the vehicle and unfortunately I don't think that's going to be the vehicle that you own I think the model uh 2 Robo taxi is actually going to be a very Niche product that only works for robotaxi so ironically I think that Reuters was right see Reuters suggested that they spoke with insiders multiple insiders and found that the $25,000 vehicle was dead and you know this led a lot of people say that reuter is a fraud and they're a lie well Reuters alleged that one source said that elon's directive was to go all in on robotaxis and to cancel the $25,000 vehicle and see this is very interesting because if you look at Elon musk's history all you have to do is look at his book I have it right here see I'm wearing my little Tesla sweater here got some jeans on whatever it's right here it's right here I have it it's in my studio and I'm going to read you a section I clipped from it for years they had talked about what should be Tesla's Next Generation offering a small inexpensive Mass market car selling for around $25,000 Sorry by the way if I sound a little lispy I had carrots I we buy raw carrots and I'm actually highly allergic to Raw carrots so my throat gets itchy and my voice sounds different and my lips kind of swell up I eat them anyway though I don't think I'm anaphylactic having my my throat close up all the way at least but anyway musk himself has teased the possibility in 2020 but then he put a hold on those plans and over the next 2 years he repeatedly vetoed the idea saying that the robo taxi would make the other car unnecessary the robo taxi would make the 25k car unnecessary hm interesting nevertheless others had quietly kept it alive as a shadow project hm interesting so maybe the $25,000 car we were told was coming with $110,000 of I'm sorry 10,000 volume units of production per year I'm sorry no that's per week I believe I believe that was 10,000 units per week uh per week starting at the end of 2025 was frankly just clickbait because they never actually thought about making a $25,000 vehicle that you could buy they thought about making a $25,000 vehicle that Tesla could license as a robo taxi well that's a little different now why is that different well let's say you don't think Robo taxi is going to be a reality until 2030 well I could sell you a Tesla $25,000 car in 2025 or 2026 but I can't sell you a roboox until probably 2030 which means I'm going to have to delay my earnings per sh share estimates for Tesla which means this is actually a net negative to Tesla in the near term near to medium term yeah now a lot of people get mad about that they say well you should be a long-term investor what do you mean you care about 2026 EPS estimates oh my gosh all right fine so let's assume the robo taxi Fleet is here and Tesla's the only one who's going to produce it my prediction by the way is that Tesla is going to release a localized robotaxi option that's going to be very similar to zuk's and it's going to operate in areas like San Francisco and Vegas and it's going to end up looking like zuk's which is amazon-owned and it'll be a localized Robo taxi it'll work and the odds are it'll be able to expand to new cities substantially faster than other vehicles but it's still going to be a niche product for quite a while here's zuk's it exists it exists today it's allowed to go on Prototype drives of up to 35 mil hour but does it drive on highways does it get off Highway off ramps does it change change lanes on highways no no it doesn't so unfortunately I think there's a regulatory hurdle that comes with this as well because elon's FSD is not perfect every FSD driver knows that there is not a single FSD driver who says the vehicle is perfect for full self driving level five autonomy now I understand people say well Kevin don't let perfect be the enemy of the good that's fine I agree FSD is much safer than a human driver 110% agree but even though you're safer than a human driver doesn't mean you're going to get Robo taxi approval on a broad-based level to where every operator can be you the first operators for robo taxis will always be the corporations it will always be the Amazon the Google the GM and the Tesla it's not going to be you the next operators will be those who are willing to pay for extremely expensive licenses and oversight procedures that require a very strict maintenance of their vehicle Fleet which the vast majority of individual owners will not be willing to partake in just look up for example flight operators okay there's something called a part 135 operator verse a a part 91 operator if you know you know let's just say if you're a 91 operator you don't want to be a 135 and if you're a 135 you paid enough money to The Regulators to your to where you're like please let me fly other people in my jet for money good luck paying those fees in other words bottom line I think that the Tesla Robo taxi is unfortunately a downgrade this is painful to say this very painful to say because a lot of people are really optimistic about this they think that Reuters is uh wrong because Elon said they lied so obviously uh that means they lied about everything wrong I actually think Reuters and Elon are right now how is that possible it's actually quite simple it's actually very simple Elon Musk will not produce a $25,000 vehicle retail will never buy a $25,000 Tesla unless it's some used Tesla or uh massively subsidized government Tesla no instead we're robot taxis will be operated by Tesla so it is a lie that the $25,000 car is dead because Tesla is going to use the $225,000 car but for you the retail audience it's true it's a lie Reuters lie to you everyone please Reuters is a scam because Reuters lie to you Reuters told you that the $25,000 Tesla is cancelled and you know what they're wrong the $25,000 Tesla is cancelled but not for Tesla of course this a Tesla shareholder you're like oh that's okay they'll make the money on the robot taxi right right yes that's what we'll underwrite we'll underwrite that every single Tesla will make $100,000 per year in passive income delusional no no if every Tesla owner could submit their car to the robo taxi Network I will guarantee you there's no way you will make $100,000 a year on one vehicle there's no way the price per mile will plummet because most of what you compensate a driver for today in Uber or Lyft is a labor not the car price will collapse H yeah so um this is where I call and just like this old card that I have on my desk do you know what this card is it's how I started my career look at that the no pressure agent realtor Kevin paffrath you know what's on the other side don't oh don't get biffed don't get biffed you're being lied to if you think you're going to turn your car into a robo taxi on August 8th you're full of poopy doopy you're being lied to I think on August 8th we are going to get a generic demonstration of none other than a product that already exists aukes that'll be Tes level five okay we can do certain cities Great yes we'll be able to scale faster than anybody else because we use Vision versus the map liar I know I agree but will you own that vehicle no Tesla will actually use their fantastic new unboxed assembly line they'll make 100 cars for themselves elves and you'll have 100 Tesla Robo taxis so it'll be true they'll be Tesla Robo taxis just like there are Whos but do I think you're going to turn your Tesla into a robotaxi on August 8th you'd be delusional to think that so am I short Tesla today no am I trying to talk to stock down no disrespectful people think that it's okay let them think whatever they want just trying to be realistic Elon Musk is uh in a corner he had to come out with an announcement today so by saying that Reuters lied about the $25,000 car he's right there won't be a $25,000 car but there will be a $25,000 car for Tesla it's all in the Nuance doesn't actually make me that bullish unfortunately but I do want to be bullish longterm because I do think long-term Chevy Ford and all the competitors will die in America and Tesla will stand Supreme and Tesla will win in a long run but not in the short term especially with Ray Cuts coming later than w
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