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Cory got the charts on Smash don't play game call all right all right welcome to hot stocks it's been a hot minute since we've done this all right so here we are we're going to look at paler and I did a very controversial video about this and I knew it would offend a lot of you and I knew a lot of you would have selective hearing so let's focus on this stock first and let's look at the price action and then just let's think about some common sense principles and let's walk through this together so without a doubt this is a very hot stock right now it is not by anybody's surprise that this is on a lot of people's radar it is up over 470 just going back to August of last year and as far as trends go this is a very powerful Trend and a very goodlook chart however there reaches a point in every single stock where valuations eventually do start to matter things like Breakaway Gap or exhaustion gaps do start to matter and things like look it's time to just simply lock in profits do start to lead to selling pressure and these are the things you really need to be focused on with this stock right now and by any means if you are holding this stock from much lower prices there is nothing on this chart that is telling you to sell yet and I am not telling you to sell this stock if you own it what I am telling a lot of people is do not be buying this stock if you are just now starting to buy at these prices there is far too much risk and in this stock at this price if you bought way down here in the 60s or 70s or even better down here in the 40s and 50s your risk is 100% controlled because your cost basis is a lot lower and if you want to wait and see how high this thing goes I completely understand that and I am not trying to pressure you into selling this stock not by any means whatsoever because there's nothing on this chart that tells you you have to sell or there's nothing on this chart that says it needs to go lower tomorrow so that should be extremely clear that I'm specifically talking to the people that have not bought this stock yet that are just now getting it on their radar buyer beware stay far away I would not touch this stock with a 10 foot pole there is no reason to be looking to buy this stock at this price in this current situation wait until we get some kind of pullback and some sort of buying opportunity before you even consider buying this stock and that is the message I want you to be crystal clear on there should be no confusion on who I'm talking to when I say do not buy this stock and there should be no confusion when I say there is nothing on on this chart that tells us we have to sell it tomorrow so looking at paler stock it is very clearly trending higher we are above every single moving average every single moving average is trending higher and when you get a stock like this there is no telling how high it's going to go or how long it's going to run and the best way to know when it's finally starting to do something different and price behavior is if it starts to turn around and do what I call rolling over and dying where it's going to start breaking down below the 5 EMA eventually it'll bounce to a a lower high and roll over yet again and then continue lower and then when it continues to make a lower high rejection after a lower low breakdown that is when the stock starts to really die and that is when the risk and the warning signs that you should be looking for an exit strategy on this stock really start to play out so I have no idea if this is going to happen or when it is going to happen but I do believe based on everything that I have done analyzing this stock that it will happen I just have no idea to tell you the exacte time frame or exactly what it's going to look like in the exact day and price everything is going to play out because nobody can know that and I think that's very fair to say so one thing I want to do is simply tell you right here from this price I do believe we are going to eventually come down here and fill this exhaustion gap which is exactly what I spent a lot of time in that video talking about and from today's close that does mean the risk from this price is a 34% downside move and I am not saying that is all going to happen overnight and we're just going straight down there and you're going to get rug pulled you are going to have plenty of time to react to it and you will see it in price when the time comes if we start to roll over and die so no fearmongering here I am not pressuring you to sell this stock and I am not telling you you can't own the stock but I am strongly suggesting that if you do not own the stock already that you don't consider buying it at this price now with all of that out of the way let's focus on the price action here today we did break over what I consider a critical level at 122 and if we can hold above 122 and there's a very good chance chance we come back down to test it then the next price we will be looking for will be higher at 131 if we cannot hold above 122 there's a good chance this was a little bit of a blowoff top day and then we should come back up at some point and retest it and then we may start to get this rollover look on a rejection which would bring us back down towards 105 and then 99 so right now in the very near term I think 122 is a very critical level whether we can hold above it or not is going to tell us a lot and if we can't hold above it we could easily come back down into the low 100 Zone and possibly even 99 and then of course if we can't hold 99 then we really start moving fast down towards 82 to 83 so this is really what you should be watching on paler stock no fear-mongering I think we could possibly go higher if we can hold above 122 so just watch 122 and then also watch The Daily 5 EMA which is also going to be up there in the 120s as of tomorrow so 122 looks like it'll be very critical in the very near term and then what happens from there whether we can hold it and bounce off of it or if we breakdown through it will be very telling on where paler is going to go next and keep in mind longer term let's say out into April and May I do think we have risk to the downside of about 33 to 34% which means if you are buying this stock and you are considering holding it for the long term that is a very sizable drop if we start to see price action breaking down and if you think you're okay holding that to me that is the equivalent of saying that you want to lose weight and you're okay with me chopping off one of your arms or legs to help you reduce your weight that is just no logic there if we start to break down manage your risk and don't be ridiculous the next hot stock I want to talk about is not hot based on price but this is an extremely hot topic stock that a lot of people are talking about and for good reason because this is an extremely good company the CEO Lisa Sue was CEO of the year last year and any American company that is currently crushing it has a great CEO so that is definitely a very important criteria when you're buying or investing in an individual company and some times some stocks just get beaten up and those are great buying opportunities and there's nothing against looking for a discount as long as you're doing so with risk management and managing that risk as necessary so I actually made a video called AMD could be a rare buying opportunity and so far the jury is still out of whether or not it's going to end up being true but I gave you a 95% probability that I thought this stock would go to 137 in the near future and as far as near future goes I do believe there's a very good chance it's going to happen before for this next earnings report which is going to take us out into May so the very simple way to manage risk here is from this previous double bottom bounce breakout which is this support zone right around 107.5 and if you can't see this this was a double bottom from that level and then we came out here and broke above the neckline and the neckline was right around 112 so you have two very clear risk levels right here on AMD you have the double bottom breakout at the neckline at 112 and the previous double bottom support at 107.5 a very simple way to manage risk is simply simply use those as your support to manage a risk from and remember trading view has this tool where you can set your long positions you could set your profit taking Target and you can manage your risk accordingly and the best way to manage risk based on price action is whether or not price action can make a higher low or a lower low and if price action starts to make a lower low that tells us the bull trend is not ready yet and we should be managing risk and looking for lower prices so for that reason I think this is a very fair setup for a risk management strategy it gives us over a 3.3 risk reward ratio meaning we will make three times more money if we're correct and if you do this time and time again and you consistently set up strong risk reward ratios with high probability chance then you will have a very profitable trading account and this is the discipline you need to have as a Trader so yes it's a falling knife yes it's a downtrend but I do believe it's very easy to manage the risk on this one so if you are bottom fishing you are doing so from this support either at 107.5 or the double bottom breakout neckline at 112 if you are not bottom fishing and you want way more proof of a strong bull Trend then you definitely want to wait for more confirmation that this double bottom breakout is the real deal we need to get back above the 20 daily moving average and we really need to start getting back above the 50 daily moving average and then that should be enough bullish momentum to start pushing us higher into that zone at there at the negatively sloping 200 daily moving average and that would easily get us into that 137 Zone albeit you would have to wait for a lot more confirmation and you would likely be buying at much higher prices as we continue to get those confirmation ations Because by the time you see that we'll be in the 120s or 130s there are so many trading strategies that are effective as I've said before you need to find what works for you what risk management strategies work for you everybody has different risk tolerance and everybody has different trading edges and different strategies more importantly as I teach you to do focus on the price action and right now a very critical resistance test is where we closed at today at 114 and the longer we can start breaking above 114 I think there's a very good chance we're going to 122 and then above 122 we're like going towards 126 to 128 and then above that we're likely going to my price Target at 137 so you have very clear levels to watch and very clear support levels to use for risk if you want to short this stock you're looking for a rejection at 114 if we are above 114 you are not trying to short until we at least get to that 50 daily moving average and Gap close at 122 so these are the critical levels that I'm paying attention to we can do more hot stocks if you guys are into this but you need to tell me that you are into this and the best way to do that is smashing that like button so that I know you want more of these videos and I'm totally open to the idea of covering other hot stocks as well so let me know if you're interested in this and we'll take it from there Cory got thearts smash don't play game call TOS calling bottoms remain
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