저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 2025년 들어 약 42% 하락했으나 여전히 고평가라고 진단. 매출 성장률이 2%로 둔화, 영업이익률·현금흐름 감소, 중국 등에서 점유율 하락 및 BYD 등 경쟁 심화. 총자산이 2020년 400억 달러에서 1220억 달러로 늘었지만 자산수익률은 6.5%로 하락. 주가는 자율주행 성공을 거의 확실시하는 수준으로 반영. DCF 적정가치를 $93.2로 상향했으나 현재가 $234보다 낮아 매수 비추천.
다듬은 글
Tesla Shares are now down 42% in 2025 hopefully you watch my video to start the year where I evaluated Tesla shares and I told investors not to buy this stock I told investors it was overvalued I told investors in fact that it was a great time to sell Tesla stock if you had benefited from those gains those unwarranted gains leading up to the start of 2025 but now that the shares are down 42% in 2025 is it time to buy Tesla stock I'll answer that question in this video I will let you know that I did make an upgrade to Tesla stock which I will share with you in this video and I'll evaluate the company's Revenue growth history the cash flow from operations the Returns on investor Capital I'll look at an interesting aspect of Tesla's business that I don't think very many investors are looking at and I'll share those details with you as well like I shared with you in the beginning of the video Tesla stock is now down almost 42% year to date in 2025 and I don't think very many investors should be surprised with this I think everyone could agree that Tesla shares were overvalued even the Tesla Bulls would agree I think that Tesla shares were overvalued but they were willing to still hold Tesla stock because of all of the positive momentum surrounding the business Tesla's CEO's relationship with President Donald Trump created even more enthusiasm so it was more about momentum rather than actual business fundamentals so now that the valuation is down by 42% I don't think anyone is surprised that the price corrected down to these levels and mentioned that the business fundamentals have not been good uh in the most recent quarter Tesla's Revenue grew by 2% a mere 2% right this is not the type of Revenue growth you expect to see from a business that's trading at nose bleed valuations like Tesla's trading at Revenue growth has decelerated for several years now and it doesn't look like Revenue growth will accelerate anytime soon Tesla's investors are more more interested about what the company can do 5 years from now or 10 years from now and are willing to overlook the near-term headwinds and there are plenty of near-term headwinds the company's Revenue growth is falling its profit margins are also falling and just this morning announcements from one of its largest competitors in China suggest that Tesla's growth in that region will be hurt further as the uh byd will uh laun launch charging stations that are twice as fast as Tesla's which it's a region where Tesla's competitive Advantage is significantly weaker because of its uh lack of Technology there uh self-driving features not as advanced in China as they are in the US and so that lack of com uh technology hurting its competition in that region as well and then you've seen uh reports so far in January and February Tesla's sales are falling it's losing market share considerably in almost every region that it operates it's losing market share but again Tesla stock investors are willing to overlook those near-term headwinds because they're so optimistic about what the company will be five years later 10 years later and that has not a little to do with the CEO's constant pointing to the Future and how this or that business category will be a multi-trillion dollar category for Tesla in the long run so I mentioned Revenue growth is falling operating margins are also falling they were never High to begin with but for a car company they were really good I've talked about how car companies are unattractive Investments maybe the only worse category for me in terms of Industry other than cars is uh planes or or not planes but Airlines I dislike airlines more so than I dislike car companies they're some of the worst categories in terms of profit margins even the best performing businesses in those categories don't deliver very good margins and you've seen this with Tesla Tesla is arguably the best car company in the world in terms of its performance on margins and um cash flow Etc but even Tesla's margins are now declining and heading worse right because Tesla has had to offer more and more incentives to try and make sales uh uh free self driving features the 0% financing price Cuts Etc to try and fuel sales growth which have been non-existent so even after all those incentives sales are not growing and so it looks like they're going to need to make even more incentives to drive sales growth which is in line with the strategy management has talked about they're willing to absorb those lower margins in order to make sales so that in the future if they do develop supervi if they do develop actual self-driving uh technology they can sell that as an upgrade to all of the cars in the market and that's a very high margin sale that software sale similar to its operating margin its cash flow from operations has been declining at 15% in the most recent trailing 12- Monon period one good thing about Tesla's business model uh the direct to Consumer business model it doesn't work with dealerships it doesn't work with that third-party dealership business model is that it gets more uh realtime data from actual demand from customers so it doesn't fall into those traps of overproducing and then Having excess inventory because that hurts your cash flow when you have thousands of dollars of inventory with each car car and then you have thousands of cars sitting around dealership Lots that's cash that's just sitting around you don't like to do that and with the direct to Consumer model you can better monitor consumer demand than if you have dealerships in the middle between yourself and the consumer all right so one category that I highlighted earlier that investors are not paying much attention to with Tesla is the increase in total assets as a business business it's less impressive if you're generating the same amount of Revenue the same amount of profits with more assets right so think about if you have one restaurant location and you're making $1 million in profit versus another restaurant business that has four locations and it's making the same $1 million in profit well Tesla's profit has been flat for a while now its Revenue growth has been relatively flat but if you look at from 2020 till now its total assets have ballooned they've more than tripled from $40 billion to $122 billion so it's having to use more Assets in order to generate the same amount of sales the same amount of cash flow and that's not very good that's not very attractive now one thing to note about this is that it is investing in assets like data center AI te technology to build up the self-driving technology but you still have to account for that in the fact that it's now employing those assets an extra $80 billion in Assets in order to try to develop that technology so when or if they actually develop that technology you have to account for the fact that they spent a lot of money on it they're using a lot of money to try and develop that technology and it's not going to generate the types of Returns on investment that you'd like to see they've already put out an extra $82 billion in this business since 2020 and have they received any kind of incremental gains from this extra $ 82 billion I would argue no they really haven't they've just utilized this extra $ 82 billion just to try and stay afloat with the competition while also investing in that driverless car technology those Investments have been very very expensive in the driverless car technology which is still nowhere near ready to be developed right we're still waiting on the announcement of the testing to begin in June so if they're starting testing if they haven't even started testing yet you can imagine how far away the actual technology might be when it's ready to go out into roads and when it's ready to start generating revenue and profit for the company and I wouldn't be surprised if they need to put out another 10 20 30 40 50 maybe 100 maybe 200 billion dollar before they actually developed that driverless car technology that's ready to go out into roads on a broad level especially because Tesla's going at this on a vertically integrated basis where they're not partnering with anybody else they want to develop the app they want to do all the customer acquisition they want to do it all from start to finish and that's incredibly more expensive than developing Partnerships where you're utilizing some of the assets that your partners have already built so because they've been investing so much in more and more assets the return on assets is now down to just 6 and a qu% just 6 and a quar perc right and it's going lower and I wouldn't be surprised if it continues moving lower for the next two years or so until if or when it develops those self-driving cars where it can start to reap some of the benefits from these Investments where it remains a question mark how much those benefits will be so now let's look at valuation where still even after the roughly 50% decline Tesla stock looks expensive if you're looking at it from a price to free cash flow at 228 it looks very very expensive if you look at it on a forward price to earnings of 64 it just looks expensive it doesn't look very very expensive as it does when you look at price to free cash flow and just for a comparison sake Tesla is trading at roughly 10 times the valuation of other car companies so you can't say that Tesla is trading like a car company because it's not it's 10 times the value of any other car company so the market doesn't treat Tesla like a car company even though 80% of its sales comes from cars so that's out of the picture already and then if you compare it with AI companies it's trading at twice or three times the value of AI companies like Nvidia Microsoft alphabet meta platforms so whether you compare it to car companies or AI companies it's more expensive than both and it has yet to achieve any meaningful AI Revenue yet to achieve any meaningful AI Revenue this is only trade trading on the basis of what might be 5 years from now or 10 years from now it's already in the price right what might be where it's it's not 100% probability that it's going to achieve this technology and generate billions of dollars in revenue and profit but the price already trades as if it's 100% sure that it's going to develop driverless car technology and it's almost 100% sure that it's going to generate billions of dollars and profits from that driverless car technology right it's already in the price right so the upgrade that I talked about in the beginning of the video was to my discounted cash flow model I increased the expected free cash flow this company will generate between 2029 and 2035 I increased those prospects um due to the expectations the progress the company has made on driverless car technology I'm not pricing it as a 100% probability that it'll achieve driverless cars and they'll generate billions in profit but I'm also not pricing it at 0% right I'm not I'm somewhere in between that which I think is a prudent view to take for a company that has failed to deliver on its promises I'm accounting for a nonzero probability and a non 100% probability so previous to this upgrade my intrinsic value per share for Tesla stock was around 8084 I upgraded my price intrinsic value price for Tesla to $932 which is still significantly below the current market price of $234 so to answer the question uh is Tesla stock a buy at current prices I would say no I would not buy Tesla stock at current price
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