저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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마이크론은 AI 데이터센터 수요와 미국 내 반도체 생산 확대로 매출·현금흐름·ROIC가 회복 중이며, 2029~2035년 잉여현금흐름 성장을 근거로 DCF 적정가 주당 139달러를 제시한다. 현재가 94.88달러 대비 상승여력이 크고 포워드 PER 8.5배로 저평가라고 본다. 시장 급락을 매수 기회로 보며 등급을 매수(Buy)로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
the stock market selloff is gaining momentum and that's concerning many stock market investors of course if you're a long-term investor with a very longtime Horizon these sell-offs can be opportunities to buy excellent stocks at bargain prices is Micron Technology one of those bargain stocks I'm going to answer that question in this video by looking at Micron Technology's Revenue growth over the last few years looking at its cash flow from operations to sales fix figures looking at the Returns on investor Capital I'm going to weigh all of that against its valuation measuring the company on a forward price to earnings basis and looking at my discounted cash flow calculation for its intrinsic value per share which I updated today March 13 2025 with new free cash flow forecasts for Myron technology updated today so I'll share all of that with you and my recommendation on the rating of this stock whether it's a buy hold or sell one thing I see when I evaluate Micron Technology Revenue growth over the previous decade is volatility and that's to be expected for a Semiconductor Company Micron Technology sells Dam technology and SSD technology which is memory and St storage for electronic devices like smartphones and tablets Micron Technology is also participating in the orking with Nvidia in this space so its prospects are robust over the next few years and we're already starting to see that the company reported 84% Revenue growth in the most recent quarter Micron Technology telling investors that it's also benefiting as consumer electronics are being embedded with more technology because consumers are willing to pay the higher price for devices with more features with more computing power with more Ai and I've seen that from other big companies in that category including Qualcomm which said similar things about people trading up to more expensive smartphones and apple which said another similar thing that people are trading up for more premium iPhones so several sources including Micron are informing investors that consumers are paying up for more technology in their devices including smartphones tablets and laptops and personal computers and of course we've all heard of the booming spending in the data centers optimized for AI all of that is working well for Micron Technology we're already starting to see that big Rebound in revenue for for micron right now and so that's fueling a rebound in the company's cash flow from operations to sales up to 35% in the most recent trading 12mon period And I wouldn't be surprised if over the next 12 to 24 months this figure continues Rising back above towards previous Peaks where Micron reported surges in these numbers and of course Micron Technology is a domestic producer of semiconductors which the administration the current Administration in the United States is really trying to push for companies that are producing semiconductors in the United States Micron has massive facilities in the United States of course it also has uh facilities overseas in Taiwan but it's investing in bringing back production to the United States it has facilities under production building out in the United States capitalizing on the semiconductor benefits that the previous administration initiated the chip production act Micron is spending billions of dollars adding new facilities which will come online over the next few years and so it could be getting in the good graces of the present Administration which is placing tariffs on what it seems like every country and everything new tariffs are coming out daily it's hard to keep track of all the new tariffs that are coming out if you zoom out the big picture you can see from the current Administration president Donald Trump does not want companies Outsourcing manufacturing to and Outsourcing jobs outside of the United States and so Micron Technology is in a good position here being a domestic one of the few domestic semiconductor companies that does design and Manufacturing in the United States the other one being Intel so micron's Returns on investor Capital are also rebounding quickly up to 7% and again just like with the cash flow from operations given the markets that Micron operates in and the rebound and the acceleration in those markets I wouldn't be surprised if its roic continues recovering and recovers back to those Peak levels around 2018 where it delivered these numbers above 30% I wouldn't be surprised if over the next 12 to 36 months if Micron Technology hits these levels over those next few years and as I highlighted in the introduction of the video I updated my discounted cash flow valuation for micron stock I increased the intrinsic value per share update as a result of increases in the free cash flow expected between the years 2029 and 2035 micron's expected increase in free cash flow between those years I have the company's free cash flow growing from 7.68 billion in 2029 all the way up to 22 billion by 2035 that's a result of growth in the markets that it operates and growth in market share for Micron Technology the company's new manufacturing facilities are coming online sometime at the towards the end of the decade around 2029 or 2030 so once those manufacturing facilities come online its ability to increase production capacity as well as being able to increase production capacity with the latest generation technology and being in the United States the company should be able to increase its free cash flow meaningfully over those years and so my previous intrinsic value per share had the stock around $120 $130 I've upgraded that to $139 per share intrinsic value the current market price is $94.88 so there's considerable upside as the market price approaches my intrinsic value per share calculation and then on top of that investors can earn the regular required return on Micron stock which is the cost of equity at 11.58% so there's multiple sources of expected return for micron over these next few months and few years as the company benefits from the growth of the end markets it participates in furthermore I looked at in uh Micron on a forward price to earnings basis and it looks relatively cheap looking at it according to the forward PE at just 8.5 so there are risks of course in investing in Micron Technology stock especially amid all of this Market vol ility but during this chaos you could find an opportunity to get Micron Technology stock at an even lower price if you're uncomfortable paying the current price which I feel is undervalued as it is but you might still feel uncomfortable buying stocks during this Market volatility which is understandable you shouldn't invest money if you're not feeling comfortable making those Investments for me these are the times I feel most comfortable making Investments is when every one else is afraid of making Investments I feel afraid of making Investments when everybody is extremely bullish and everything is overv valued and everything is going up that's when I get nervous that's when I feel like oh my goodness people are too optimistic there isn't enough concern in the market people aren't being cautious enough people aren't being prudent enough with their Investments they're just throwing their money at everything and anything and the valuations are too high that's when I get nervous right during Market volatility during these sell-offs is when I feel more comfortable when I feel like okay finally the stock market is being more cautious finally investors are being more prudent and prices are coming down and I can get great businesses at bargain prices and I feel like Micron Technology is one of those businesses that's selling at a bargain price so to update my recommendation I do feel Micron Technology stock is a and I updated that on March 13th 2025
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