Should You Buy Taiwan Semiconductor Stock at Current Prices? | TSM Stock Analysis

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TSMC는 AI 데이터센터 수요와 스마트폰 고급화로 매출 성장이 견고하고 영업이익률이 약 46%로 업계 최고 수준이다. 미국·일본 해외 공장 투자로 향후 마진이 몇 %포인트 하락할 것으로 보며, 지정학 리스크로 베타(1.27)와 WACC(14.73%)가 높다. DCF 적정가 154달러 대비 현재가 172달러로 공정가치 수준이며, 안전마진을 더 요구해 기존 매수 의견을 유지한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. to start 2025 I did a video about Taiwan semiconductor stock and I took the stock off of my list of stocks to buy for 2024 I had Taiwan semi rated as a buy but for 2025 I downgraded it and rated it as a hold now if you listen to that recommendation you will have saved some money the stock price started the year around $200 a share it's now down to $170 a share so it's down about 15% year-to dat does this make it a buying opportunity well I'm going to revisit Taiwan semiconductor stock NOW given the lower price given the changes in geopolitical factors given all of those things that have changed for the semiconductor industry and give an updated recommendation for Taiwan semi so let's get started stocks to buy now so I want to start with looking at the company's Revenue growth which is doing very well the company benefits f you didn't already know Taiwan semi conductor is the manufacturing partner for companies like Nvidia AMD apple and even Intel outsources some of its manufactur business optimized for artificial intelligence is booming and Taiwan semi is benefiting from that Taiwan semi is also benefiting in recent quarters from what's going on in the smartphone market now the smartphone market is not growing in terms of unit sales but what is happening within the smartphone market is people are trading up for more powerful smartphon phones embedded with more technology and of course that's good news for Taiwan semi because that means the manufacturers like apple are spending more money going for the latest generation opting for the higher average selling price units that go into these smartphones and so it's going to benefit from these trends for many many years to come especially the data center segment optimized for AI Taiwan semi is also one of the the best manufacturing companies in the world in any category right so it's a semiconductor manufacturing company but you can compare it with car manufacturing companies computer manufacturing companies and you'll scarcely find a manufacturing company that generates operating profit margins over 45% like Taiwan semi does and to make that even better the company's been expanding its margins for the previous decade started at around 38% it's now closer to 46% and it's dominating the industry it's making it very difficult for companies like Intel to regain a foothold in this industry now there is one factor that's going to bring down its margins and management talked about the geod diversification of its Business formerly the vast majority of its manufacturing footprint was in Taiwan but the last couple of years and all of the elevated geopolitical tension has made it a priority for Taiwan semiconductor to diversify its manufacturing base and it's expanded outside it's begun producing chips in the United States and it's making an expanded investment in the United States it also built facilities and is building facilities in Japan and the management team said that these Investments are necessary given the geop political environment but also saying that it is more expensive to produce outside of Taiwan and so that will have the impact of bringing down margins a couple of basis points a couple of percentage points uh for the next couple of years still I think that was a prudent move for Taiwan semiconductor especially now we're seeing the incoming Administration it feels like they are less interested in getting involved involved in disputes outside of the normal operating environment of the United States and the United States had been a major deterrent to the tensions between China and Taiwan so bigger question marks there raising the level of riskiness for Taiwan semiconductor stock for factors not related to its business but factors related to geopolitics now the semiconductor manufacturing industry that Taiwan semi operates within is a very Capital intensive industry perhaps one of the most Capital intensive Industries where Taiwan semi regularly spends over $30 billion annually on Capital expenditures and that figure could rise closer to $40 billion the good news is it generates good Returns on those investment the 25% return on invested capital is a really solid number for Taiwan semi but as per usual I compare the roicc with the wacc and Taiwan semi has a relatively High weighted average cost of capital because of the factors I mentioned in the video the high capital expenditure requirements for its industry and the geop politics within the region the company's beta is higher than usual at 1.27 the market risk premium I've applied here is 8% instead of the usual 6% that I apply to us-based companies and so that elevated risk is incorporated here in my weighted average cost of capital which also weighs on the company's valuation so the waac at 14.73% so it does generate higher Returns on invested capital compared to its weighted average cost of capital and that means it's increasing shareholder wealth by deploying Capital so every time it spends $30 billion so long as the return on that invested capital is higher than the cost of that Capital it's adding shareholder wealth I hope that makes sense if there's any questions please ask in the comment section below I love to answer these types of questions the valuation is getting increasingly more attractive it' which is around the levels it was trading at to start 2024 when I had the stock rated as a buy however measuring by the discounted cash flow valuation model I come to an intrinsic value per share at $154 compared to the current market price of $172 so in conclusion Taiwan semi is a fairly valued business according to my calculations usually what I say in these scenarios where you have a fairly valued business that is also an excellent business right I talked about how Taiwan semi is arguably the best Manufacturing Company in the world usually when I see a fair price for an excellent business I will rate that as a buy the only reason I'm not doing that in this case is because of the elev at risks around the geopolitics right now and the uncertainty I would require a higher margin of safety in this current scenario so that's what's keeping me from increasing the rating for Taiwan semi so I'm going to keep it rated as a buy I'm updating that today on March 7th but this is a company that I'm very interested in and I will be following and updating more frequently